that chicken sure looks good but can they really do it in a way that they won't just be/taste reheated?

i'll let you know

I've moved on to preemptive hatin'

This year's Phillies Wall of Fame fan voting ends at 5:00 pm today (3/20).

Vote here.

Grotewold wrote:Waiting for the hot dog textured briefs

Yum.

TheDude24 wrote:This year's Phillies Wall of Fame fan voting ends at 5:00 pm today (3/20).

Vote here.

If I voted in these things I'd vote for Fred Luderas or Pinky Whitney. It's tough not to vote for a guy named Pinky.

I joined my first fantasy league this year with a bunch of pals. No money. Auto-draft. I did my draft rankings and moved every single phillie i could find to the top of each list. Wonder if I can end up with a team of all Phillies. Which is my goal.

/takeittothefantasyforum

Gotta be Schilling for WoF this year, right?

Bucky wrote:I joined my first fantasy league this year with a bunch of pals. No money. Auto-draft. I did my draft rankings and moved every single phillie i could find to the top of each list. Wonder if I can end up with a team of all Phillies. Which is my goal.

/takeittothefantasyforum

Don't forget to keep us updated with how much you love or hate your team.

BigEd76 wrote:Gotta be Schilling for WoF this year, right?

Seriously? Yes.

So if someone told you preseason that you would have a diminished Roy Halladay, that he would be the equivalent of an average MLB 3rd starter, and in return you would get 40 HRs abd 150 RBIs from your corner OF spots would you take it? Do you think the Phillies would be better off in that deal?

from both corner OFs? fuck yes. chooch and yim, our leaders in RBI, had 68 a piece last year. we got 124 combined out of pence, vic, and pierre (26 from dom in 212 PAs).

i see that crashy again displayed his ignorance the other day.
he claimed dom's power spike this spring is meaningless, based on lack of correlation between spring and regular power and ops stats in a tiny non-random sample.
he apparently knows nothing about the much bigger and more robust analysis of john dewan (founder of stats inc and co-founder of baseball info solutions, so someone you would think a stat lover like crashy would pay attention to) showing that hitters
with more than 200 career regular season abs
with more than 40 abs in a spring
and spring slg more than 200 points above their career slg
have a very strong tendency to follow that spring with a breakout season.
some have objected that slg includes babip luck on singles, so it is safer to apply the rule to iso.
guess what?
dom is at +229 (381 iso this spring versus 152 career) through 63 abs this spring. (+322 slg)

http://www.baseballpress.com/article.php_id=775

update... I have found an instance of crashy referencing the dewan breakout rule, so he knows about it.
he just doesn't put much stock in it. with good reason, to be honest, because i also just saw that evil young was at or near the top of the list going into 2012! the dewan system has something like at 50% success rate, which is better than most at predicting breakouts, but no guarantee. i do think it was pretty silly of crashy to make his point with a strange small sample instead of a more direct test of the actual dewan hypothesis, or a modified one using iso instead of slg.

this is a job for one of our spreadsheet wizards, like shore. who knows, spring break is coming up, so maybe i'll do it myself for once. anyone know where i can find spring training stats from past seasons?

phorever wrote:i see that crashy again displayed his ignorance the other day.
he claimed dom's power spike this spring is meaningless, based on lack of correlation between spring and regular power and ops stats in a tiny non-random sample.
he apparently knows nothing about the much bigger and more robust analysis of john dewan (founder of stats inc and co-founder of baseball info solutions, so someone you would think a stat lover like crashy would pay attention to) showing that hitters
with more than 200 career regular season abs
with more than 40 abs in a spring
and spring slg more than 200 points above their career slg
have a very strong tendency to follow that spring with a breakout season.
some have objected that slg includes babip luck on singles, so it is safer to apply the rule to iso.
guess what?
dom is at +229 (381 iso this spring versus 152 career) through 63 abs this spring. (+322 slg)

http://www.baseballpress.com/article.php_id=775

There were some very strange things about how Crashburn did that analysis.

phorever wrote:anyone know where i can find spring training stats from past seasons?

MLB.com has spring stats.

Predicting breakouts is defined as predicting having a slugging % in the regular season higher than career %, right? That would be great for someone like Howard but not so impressive for Brown.

ESPN Classic is currently showing the Kevin Millwood no-hitter.

Get a job hippie. Im posting on bsg while I ignore my work like youre supposed to.

pacino wrote:Get a job hippie. Im posting on bsg while I'm killing time until the Tournament games start like youre supposed to.

Fixed.

phorever wrote:with more than 200 career regular season abs
with more than 40 abs in a spring
and spring slg more than 200 points above their career slg
have a very strong tendency to follow that spring with a breakout season.
some have objected that slg includes babip luck on singles, so it is safer to apply the rule to iso.
guess what?
dom is at +229 (381 iso this spring versus 152 career) through 63 abs this spring. (+322 slg)
?

Didn't the study show, and I'm going off what I read in another post, I believe, that they have a 60% chance of outperforming their slg career average? Assuming I'm remembering that right, isn't that really weak sauce? He's basically looking at a subset of hitters (200 slg points higher in ST, 200abs, and 40abs) and saying they will probably (60% chance isn't really that high to me) outperform their career average? Wouldn't we expect about 50% of hitters to do that completely by chance (half above and half below)? So the likelihood of outperforming your career average is increased by 10% if you happen to meet his criteria. I believe the stat for the Philllies said 8 of 12 have followed this trend. Color me unimpressed.

Or am I missing something?