Monkeyboy wrote:

phorever wrote:with more than 200 career regular season abs
with more than 40 abs in a spring
and spring slg more than 200 points above their career slg
have a very strong tendency to follow that spring with a breakout season.
some have objected that slg includes babip luck on singles, so it is safer to apply the rule to iso.
guess what?
dom is at +229 (381 iso this spring versus 152 career) through 63 abs this spring. (+322 slg)
?

Didn't the study show, and I'm going off what I read in another post, I believe, that they have a 60% chance of outperforming their slg career average? Assuming I'm remembering that right, isn't that really weak sauce? He's basically looking at a subset of hitters (200 slg points higher in ST, 200abs, and 40abs) and saying they will probably (60% chance isn't really that high to me) outperform their career average? Wouldn't we expect about 50% of hitters to do that completely by chance (half above and half below)? So the likelihood of outperforming your career average is increased by 10% if you happen to meet his criteria. I believe the stat for the Philllies said 8 of 12 have followed this trend. Color me unimpressed.

Or am I missing something?

bleh wrote:

Monkeyboy wrote:

phorever wrote:with more than 200 career regular season abs
with more than 40 abs in a spring
and spring slg more than 200 points above their career slg
have a very strong tendency to follow that spring with a breakout season.
some have objected that slg includes babip luck on singles, so it is safer to apply the rule to iso.
guess what?
dom is at +229 (381 iso this spring versus 152 career) through 63 abs this spring. (+322 slg)
?

Didn't the study show, and I'm going off what I read in another post, I believe, that they have a 60% chance of outperforming their slg career average? Assuming I'm remembering that right, isn't that really weak sauce? He's basically looking at a subset of hitters (200 slg points higher in ST, 200abs, and 40abs) and saying they will probably (60% chance isn't really that high to me) outperform their career average? Wouldn't we expect about 50% of hitters to do that completely by chance (half above and half below)? So the likelihood of outperforming your career average is increased by 10% if you happen to meet his criteria. I believe the stat for the Philllies said 8 of 12 have followed this trend. Color me unimpressed.

Or am I missing something?

That article mentions guys like Juan Uribe, Jose Bautista and Angel Pagan. There's a huge difference between looking for breakout years from utility guys like those and someone who was a top prospect 2 years ago and is 25 years old. The spring training stats alone don't say much on their own, but he's already shown power in the minor leagues and had injury issues that he seems to have recovered from and he's entering his prime and he's made adjustments to his swing.

edit: I guess you are debating the merits of the article and not Domo's chances of having a breakout year.

smitty wrote:I understand many experts are cautiously optimistic regarding Brown.

Personally, I'm wildly optimistic and expect Brown to be great this season. He has a chance to be a Jason Heyward Clone or maybe even Cory Hart.

Grotewold wrote:Cooney picked us to win 79 in USA Today

Doll Is Mine wrote:Matt Gelb ‏@magelb
#Braves rotation for opening series vs. Phillies: Hudson, Maholm and Medlen.

Bitch please.

Monkeyboy wrote:

smitty wrote:I understand many experts are cautiously optimistic regarding Brown.

Personally, I'm wildly optimistic and expect Brown to be great this season. He has a chance to be a Jason Heyward Clone or maybe even Cory Hart.

you jest, I think, but Heyward and Dom could be pretty similar players, with Heyward having maybe a bit more upside in terms of HRs and steals. Both lefty RFers with good patience who probably won't hit for high average.

I'm bully on Brown.

The B1G Piece wrote:HUDDY

smitty wrote:

Monkeyboy wrote:

smitty wrote:I understand many experts are cautiously optimistic regarding Brown.

Personally, I'm wildly optimistic and expect Brown to be great this season. He has a chance to be a Jason Heyward Clone or maybe even Cory Hart.

you jest, I think, but Heyward and Dom could be pretty similar players, with Heyward having maybe a bit more upside in terms of HRs and steals. Both lefty RFers with good patience who probably won't hit for high average.

I'm bully on Brown.

I am joshing but you make a good point. Heyward is way younger and already established so the comp is terrible. But I can see Brown putting up triple slash lines that fit in with Heyward's career.