WE'RE NUMBER 3! WE'RE NUMBER 3! Phillies thoughts etc..

by **dajafi** » Tue Mar 05, 2013 12:10:46

Minus the headline, not a terrible article. But obviously they owe it to the fans and the core to attempt one more run. Keri admits the plausibility of their hopes for this year, then veers away because that's a less interesting story. He also ignores the screamingly obvious point that they're much more likely to raise a flag in 2013 with their old-but-elite core enjoying a last hurrah than in (say) 2019 with a bunch of guys they'd get in trade currently tearing up the low minors.

Probably the worst scenario is if they reach mid-July right at .500, five or six games off the wild-card pace. They're likely buyers in that scenario, but there lies the highest likelihood of a mistake that could extend the next dark age.

by **Grotewold** » Tue Mar 05, 2013 12:20:31

Also might have been worth mentioning that Rube doesn't have his head in the sand, and gave the team a higher ceiling this offseason without burdening the future

by **RichmondPhilsFan** » Tue Mar 05, 2013 12:24:40

It wasn't a terrible article, but I laughed my ass off at the Boston reference. Sure, because the largest trade in MLB history featuring a team that just came out of bankruptcy and had been purchased by a combo of billionaires... that's repeatable.

by **Grotewold** » Tue Mar 05, 2013 12:26:59

RichmondPhilsFan wrote:It wasn't a terrible article, but I laughed my ass off at the Boston reference. Sure, because the largest trade in MLB history featuring a team that just came out of bankruptcy and had been purchased by a combo of billionaires... that's repeatable.

I didn't even notice that, but yeah. Meanwhile the Phils have been adding low-risk complements and avoiding long-term deals

by **Grotewold** » Tue Mar 05, 2013 12:55:09

phdave wrote:
Grotewold wrote:He responded with "I don't write the headlines"

smh

The headline he would have preferred was, "Blow up the Phillies (But not the Yankees)!

He said that to another tweeter, so this time I asked him specifically if the Yanks could eat money to move Sabbathia and why this Give Away Elite Talent narrative seemed to emerge out of nowhere last July

Edit: Yanks "have way more money," despite clear intent to avoid luxury tax. CC significantly more valuable moving foward. ok.

Don't know why I let this shit bother me

by **Barry Jive** » Tue Mar 05, 2013 13:00:00

One interesting thing in there is that the Phils have a really easy early schedule that's likely going to keep them from blowing it up anyway. A lot of his assumptions seem to be based on the Phils continuing their decline, when that doesn't all really make much sense to me from an advanced analysis view. They're likely to be better than they were last year, especially in the first half of the season. Adding in the lack of schedule strength and it seems extremely unlikely they'll be sellers at the deadline.

by **BigEd76** » Tue Mar 05, 2013 13:25:09

Inciarte did a quick interview on CSN yesterday. Looks 22, sounds 72

by **joe table** » Tue Mar 05, 2013 13:37:20

Grotewold wrote:Phils are either gonna re-sign Halladay or get a stud pitcher

by **Gimpy** » Tue Mar 05, 2013 13:40:19

dajafi wrote:Minus the headline, not a terrible article. But obviously they owe it to the fans and the core to attempt one more run. Keri admits the plausibility of their hopes for this year, then veers away because that's a less interesting story. He also ignores the screamingly obvious point that they're much more likely to raise a flag in 2013 with their old-but-elite core enjoying a last hurrah than in (say) 2019 with a bunch of guys they'd get in trade currently tearing up the low minors.

Probably the worst scenario is if they reach mid-July right at .500, five or six games off the wild-card pace. They're likely buyers in that scenario, but there lies the highest likelihood of a mistake that could extend the next dark age.

I only skimmed the article, but this was my impression as well. If the team is underperforming heading towards the middle of the season, it would be a reasonable response to blow it up. I'm not advocating that, but it's definitely a valid opinion.

by **Grotewold** » Tue Mar 05, 2013 13:43:15

Gimpy wrote:If the team is underperforming heading towards the middle of the season, it would be a reasonable response to blow it up. I'm not advocating that, but it's definitely a valid opinion.

I could see trading guys on their walk years for strong value. But not eating money for guys like Lee and Papelbon, who along with Hamels give us a good shot to be in the mix assuming ownership isn't dumb enough to slash payroll

by **Gimpy** » Tue Mar 05, 2013 13:48:01

Grotewold wrote:
Gimpy wrote:If the team is underperforming heading towards the middle of the season, it would be a reasonable response to blow it up. I'm not advocating that, but it's definitely a valid opinion.

I could see trading guys on their walk years for strong value. But not eating money for guys like Lee and Papelbon, who along with Hamels give us a good shot to be in the mix assuming ownership isn't dumb enough to slash payroll

Yea, I think the simplest form of the idea that the article is suggesting is: if you're not going to win now, you're better off trading some guys that won't help much in the future for guys that could be big contributors in the future.

by **RichmondPhilsFan** » Tue Mar 05, 2013 14:20:25

Besides, I'd be less critical of these national articles if they EVER mentioned the real problem for the 2012 Phillies... the awful middle relief in the first half of the season.

by **Phan In Phlorida** » Tue Mar 05, 2013 18:06:35

Inciarte posing for a pic. Just posting this in case jfffsf is browsing here.

by **Wizlah** » Tue Mar 05, 2013 18:27:41

Phan In Phlorida wrote:Inciarte posing for a pic. Just posting this in case jfffsf is browsing here.

that man's big toe is obscene. An affront to the natural form. Vile.

by **phorever** » Wed Mar 06, 2013 11:07:32

Grotewold wrote:
Gimpy wrote:If the team is underperforming heading towards the middle of the season, it would be a reasonable response to blow it up. I'm not advocating that, but it's definitely a valid opinion.

I could see trading guys on their walk years for strong value. But not eating money for guys like Lee and Papelbon, who along with Hamels give us a good shot to be in the mix assuming ownership isn't dumb enough to slash payroll

i am reasonably optimistic about this season, and i agree with you that the phils can succeed going forward without firesale trades. i even think that a good plan can include resigning utley and halladay while keeping rollins, lee, hamels, howard, and papelbon.

much depends on how well the young(ish) talent develops. brown, revere, asche, biddle, morgan, martin, joseph, aumont, franco, etc. i know that the prospect rankers don't value the guys in our system too highly, i don't have a lot of faith in prospect rankings. that dates back to my arguments with bp over their refusal to rank utley highly. late-blooming prospects get no respect.

all that said, if things go south again this season, it would be a really good idea to trade off expensive pieces for prospects, eating some salary if possible. if someone wants halladay or papelbon for the stretch run badly enough to offer a good deal, do it... especially if they don't reverse their velocity declines. do teams give up good prospect for a big-name pitcher, overlooking the likelihood of injury? i still remember the trade of gio and floyd for freddy garcia, and am pretty sure there are some teams out there dumb enough to restore the karmic balance of that one. i can see aumont turning into a top closer and biddle and martin upgrading the back of the rotation enough to offset the loss of halladay in 2014 and beyond.
best case scenario in that case is landing a replacement for utley (assume he doesn't provide convincing evidence that the phils should gamble on his knees going forward).

if the phils have a good season and justifiably hang on to everyone, then there is still good hope enough that enough prospects step forward that we can use them to fill any and all 2014 gaps via promotion (joseph and asche for ruiz and young, martin/morgan/biddle for the rotation) and trade (excess pitchers for 2b or rf holes).

by **Stay_Disappointed** » Thu Mar 07, 2013 23:16:38

DKnobler ‏@DKnobler
It's early, but scouts in Florida already wondering about Halladay. 86-88 today. One scout: "He's not the same guy."

by **Eem** » Fri Mar 08, 2013 12:42:02

Think Candy Van had another scout say Halladay was better than he was at this time last year but not the same guy he was in 2011

Isn't that what we kind of hoped would happen anyway?

by **The B1G Piece** » Fri Mar 08, 2013 12:55:59

Eem wrote:Think Candy Van had another scout say Halladay was better than he was at this time last year but not the same guy he was in 2011

Isn't that what we kind of hoped would happen anyway?

With Cliff and Chole, I'd take that deal.

by **RichmondPhilsFan** » Fri Mar 08, 2013 15:21:05

The B1G Piece wrote:
Eem wrote:Think Candy Van had another scout say Halladay was better than he was at this time last year but not the same guy he was in 2011

Isn't that what we kind of hoped would happen anyway?

With Cliff and Chole, I'd take that deal.

Yup. The guy turns 36 in two months. No one (at least no one with a brain) thinks we're getting a season from his prime.

by **Doll Is Mine** » Fri Mar 08, 2013 15:24:30

ek wrote:Agreed. its like some of these idiots think time stops

It does for me. I don't look a day over 25. Shut up.

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