Barry Jive wrote:it ain't just right now

I meant he's just off on hitting the ball to all fields right now, not just to left

I realize the long-term trends going the wrong way, and am hopefully he can clear the "serviceable" bar we were discussing

those projections are pretty terrifying

Shore wrote:He has a good number of RBI (62), but that seems like the exception, not the rule. And certainly influenced by opportunities.

Ortiz hit .238 at 33, but had a .332 OBP and .462 SLG, and a 102 OPS+.

I hear you loud and clear, but the RBI thing seems unfair. He's always been exceptional there.

Also that Ortiz's trough year was better than what Howard's done lately, but that was a big dropoff from him, going from a beast to a basically league average hitter

Grotewold wrote:

Trent Steele wrote:Hope you're right, but Ortiz is nothing like Howard. The plate discipline makes all the difference in the world.

I agree that alot of the problem is just physical decline, and there isn't anything you can do about that (unless you want to roid up, which I would fully endorse for Howard). What kills me is that he is such a dumb hitter. It makes you wonder whether he even pays attention, let alone watches tape of how he's been pitched to for the last 5-6 years.

Howard is more like Ortiz than he is Kevin Mitchell

Agree on the plate discipline, it drives me nuts too. But I think he can remain "serviceable" with power and driving in runs. 30+ HR is less common than it was several years ago, and most of the sluggers' ISOs have declined at similar rates to Howard's

In 2009, league ISO was .150, and Howard's .292 was 4th in the league (Pujols led, .331). 18 hitters had ISOs of 250+.

In 2012, league ISO was .146, .292 would have tied Hamilton for 3rd, and Stanton led with .318. 14 hitters had ISOs of 250+. Howard was at .204.

I think he's declined a lot further, and faster, than the league.

Barry Jive wrote:those projections are pretty terrifying

I think a .335 wOBA is right on. That pretty much makes him Mark Reynolds. Which makes me sad. Because I thought Mark Reynolds was terrible. But now I am hoping Howard can be Mark Reynolds.

Shore wrote:
In 2009, league ISO was .150, and Howard's .292 was 4th in the league (Pujols led, .331). 18 hitters had ISOs of 250+.

In 2012, league ISO was .146, .292 would have tied Hamilton for 3rd, and Stanton led with .318. 14 hitters had ISOs of 250+. Howard was at .204.

I think he's declined a lot further, and faster, than the league.

Let's also factor in Teixiera, Gonzalez, Fielder (who's been up and down), Pujols post-2009, etc.

Edit: Not sure if I'm doing this right, but http://www.fangraphs.com/comparison.asp ... ,1177,1908

Again, I concede most of what's being said. I just think a factor here is people going overboard in criticizing Howard's power drop without factoring in that of comparable players

Mark Reynolds has always had a superior walk rate. Howard's now more Rico Brogna without the defense.

1. He needs to make some concessions to age - when they play the shift with no one on, he has to learn to poke the ball the other way so that he can get the shift off - I'll bet that his BABIP is extra low against the shift . If there are runners on, they can't really shift as much and more likely to see hittable pitches, and with two out he can hack away and try to run into one.

2. Won't happen this year or maybe even next year, but $$ or no the team will eventually come around to platooning him with Ruff or Mayberry. He is still should hit RHP at an .800-.900 clip for a few more years.

JFLNYC wrote:Mark Reynolds has always had a superior walk rate. Howard's now more Rico Brogna without the defense.

No chance to be league average (OPS) or exceed 20 HR?

You may be right, the Achilles is a huge wild card, but that would be a pretty sudden development

nycphils wrote:Won't happen this year or maybe even next year, but $$ or no the team will eventually come around to platooning him with Ruff or Mayberry. He is still should hit RHP at an .800-.900 clip for a few more years.

It would be easier for a new manager to do that, yeah

it will be interesting to see what he does in the 2nd half. he always seemed to have a couple of "carry the team" type months in him pre-2012

Barry Jive wrote:those projections are pretty terrifying

totally depressing

Grotewold wrote:

JFLNYC wrote:Mark Reynolds has always had a superior walk rate. Howard's now more Rico Brogna without the defense.

No chance to be league average (OPS) or exceed 20 HR?

You may be right, the Achilles is a huge wild card, but that would be a pretty sudden development

If he starts lifting the ball again, he can still hit 30 HR

It's kind of amazing to think about how different this team would be if we didn't have 25 million locked up in what appears to be the worst everyday player at first in the majors.

he's dead jim

The Nightman Cometh wrote:It's kind of amazing to think about how different this team would be if we didn't have 25 million locked up in what appears to be the worst everyday player at first in the majors.

Ruf at first and Hamilton (at $30M) playing like shit?

I would give up a prospect if someone took Howard and 1/4 of his salary at this point

Trent Steele wrote:

Grotewold wrote:

JFLNYC wrote:Mark Reynolds has always had a superior walk rate. Howard's now more Rico Brogna without the defense.

No chance to be league average (OPS) or exceed 20 HR?

You may be right, the Achilles is a huge wild card, but that would be a pretty sudden development

If he starts lifting the ball again, he can still hit 30 HR

Code: Select all

Season Team  GB/FB  LD%    GB%   FB%   IFFB%  HR/FB  IFH%  BUH%
2004 Phillies 0.91 19.2 % 38.5 % 42.3 % 0.0 % 18.2 % 20.0 % 0.0 %
2005 Phillies 1.49 26.6 % 43.9 % 29.4 % 0.0 % 34.9 % 5.3 % 0.0 %
2006 Phillies 1.16 21.9 % 41.9 % 36.2 % 3.4 % 39.5 % 5.3 % 0.0 %
2007 Phillies 0.71 24.3 % 31.5 % 44.2 % 2.7 % 31.5 % 1.9 % 0.0 %
2008 Phillies 1.15 22.3 % 41.5 % 36.2 % 2.0 % 31.8 % 2.3 % 0.0 %
2009 Phillies 0.89 23.2 % 36.2 % 40.6 % 0.6 % 25.4 % 7.0 % 0.0 %
2010 Phillies 1.07 23.2 % 39.6 % 37.1 % 1.4 % 21.1 % 4.5 % 0.0 %
2011 Phillies 1.03 20.8 % 40.3 % 39.0 % 2.6 % 21.7 % 1.9 % 0.0 %
2012 Phillies 1.39 25.6 % 43.3 % 31.1 % 0.0 % 27.5 % 4.2 % 0.0 %
2013 Phillies 1.35 25.9 % 42.6 % 31.5 % 0.0 % 5.9 % 0.0 % 0.0 %


no matter how you slice it, it comes back to a plate discipline issue, which is really hard for a 33/34 year old to improve imo

gotta work on those bunting numbers

I'm not ready to write him off completely simply because he did look good this spring. I try not to think about the $$$ other than the $$$ forming the foundation of my hatred for Amaro.