They also got caught stealing signs in 2010, need to go back to doing that again.

Grotewold wrote:

JFLNYC wrote:Mark Reynolds has always had a superior walk rate. Howard's now more Rico Brogna without the defense.

No chance to be league average (OPS) or exceed 20 HR?

You may be right, the Achilles is a huge wild card, but that would be a pretty sudden development

In terms of overall production.

In his 3 years with the Phils, Brogna's wOBA and wRC+ were:

.312/82
.326/94
.340/95

2011-2013 Howard has been:

.355/124
.303/87
.287/79

If you believe that Howard's problems last year and this are largely due to the Achilles injury and that he can return to 2011 form, then his production will far exceed Brogna's. If you believe that age and the injury have forever reduced his production, then he may not even reach Rico's production, even if he hits more HR.

He's a fucking mess and I'm scared too but spending 4 pages parsing his 2013 numbers is p dumb

joe table wrote:He's a fucking mess and I'm scared too but spending 4 pages parsing his 2013 numbers is p dumb

I'm not sure anyone's doing that.

Even 2012 and 2013 is a 360 PA sample spread over almost a calendar year

I'm thinking (hoping) 2011 is an optimistic but plausible scenario from this point forward. Overall he had ~10% UIBB and 235 ISO. Vs RHP, 280 ISO and 145 wRC+. ISO was also similar in 2010. This isn't shooting for the stars, since it's a pretty solid discount for his (bygome) prime levels

If he can't get back there it's gonna be really bad. If he can, he can still help, because he'd still be a weapon against a RH starter and RH starters are still 2/3 of the league

Rickey Henderson scored 2300 runs.

Trent Steele wrote:Rickey Henderson scored 2300 runs.

No one is touching that or his SBs

joe table wrote:Even 2012 and 2013 is a 360 PA sample spread over almost a calendar year

I'm thinking (hoping) 2011 is an optimistic but plausible scenario from this point forward. Overall he had ~10% UIBB and 235 ISO. Vs RHP, 280 ISO and 145 wRC+. ISO was also similar in 2010. This isn't shooting for the stars, since it's a pretty solid discount for his (bygome) prime levels

If he can't get back there it's gonna be really bad. If he can, he can still help, because he'd still be a weapon against a RH starter and RH starters are still 2/3 of the league

joe table wrote:He's a fucking mess and I'm scared too but spending 4 pages parsing his 2013 numbers is p dumb

You're OK though, Jose, since you didn't spend 4 pages doing it!

2011 featured a significant sample size

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/when-sam ... -reliable/

So per that, 2012 only certain things are reliable, sample-wise (not including OBP and SLG). 2013 stats relevant for basically nothing. And combining seasons both seems questionable given differences in injury recovery situation

joe table wrote:2011 featured a significant sample size

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/when-sam ... -reliable/

So per that, 2012 only certain things are reliable, sample-wise (not including OBP and SLG). 2013 stats relevant for basically nothing. And combining seasons both seems questionable given differences in injury recovery situation

I'm vibrating with excitement to see what the next 134 PA bring us, since that will give us 500 post-injury PA, and we can consider his sample significant for OBP, SLG, OPS, 1B rate, and popup rate.

For now, we can limit criticism to Swing %, Contact Rate, Strikeout Rate, Line Drive Rate, Pitches/PA, Walk Rate, Groundball Rate, GB/FB, Flyball Rate, Home Run Rate, and HR/FB, which are considered by link above to be significant in a 366 PA sample. That should give us more than enough to talk about.

The idea of cross-season samples is pretty sketchy. It's like the arguments ripping Brown based on 2011 and 2012 that we have criticized

Just give me 500 PAs this year and if he's still this, crucify away with no criticisms from me

Shore wrote:

joe table wrote:2011 featured a significant sample size

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/when-sam ... -reliable/

So per that, 2012 only certain things are reliable, sample-wise (not including OBP and SLG). 2013 stats relevant for basically nothing. And combining seasons both seems questionable given differences in injury recovery situation

I'm vibrating with excitement to see what the next 134 PA bring us, since that will give us 500 post-injury PA, and we can consider his sample significant for OBP, SLG, OPS, 1B rate, and popup rate.

For now, we can limit criticism to Swing %, Contact Rate, Strikeout Rate, Line Drive Rate, Pitches/PA, Walk Rate, Groundball Rate, GB/FB, Flyball Rate, Home Run Rate, and HR/FB, which are considered by link above to be significant in a 366 PA sample. That should give us more than enough to talk about.

well his HR/FB is significantly lower than where you'd expect it to be, so there's a start. I'm assuming that will have some impact on the other stats you cited

joe table wrote:The idea of cross-season samples is pretty sketchy. It's like the arguments ripping Brown based on 2011 and 2012 that we have criticized

Just give me 500 PAs this year and if he's still this, crucify away with no criticisms from me

Isn't a career a cross-season sample? At what point does a career, or phase of a career, mean less than a season of a career?

I guess I'm saying I'm fairly comfortable lumping all post-2011 performance into a "post-injury" category, and analyzing from there. Hopefully, in 2 years, we're combining seasons into a "post-recovery" bucket, and it looks awesome. I just don't think so, given age, pre-injury decline, and injury.

Right well the 2012 + March/April 2013 sample is especially questionable because of his injury and the ostensibly different condition of his lower body now vs then (ie, I think his entire lower body, not only heel itself, is probably stronger now after several months of more extensive physical activity)

wow. strong mix of awe and anger

www.thefightins.com <<

there goes zwrs tshirt traffix

Connie Marrero, the world's oldest living major leaguer, and still obviously a badass.