Yeah the weak contact thing is a fact. I've had a hunch it was his response to all the criticism about strikeouts, especially after the 2009 WS -- trying to just put it in play early in the count

But it could also be a bat speed loss

Warszawa wrote:

pacino wrote:

Trent Steele wrote:Since 2010 (both basically lost a year to injury):

Howard: 1626 PA, .257/.338/.478 . 348 wOBA

LaRoche: 1496 PA: .253/.326/.459 .338 wOBA

The OBP difference is almost entirely due to an IBB difference from 2010/2011 that is no longer relevant going forward.

this is very disconcerting news

So Howard claims his swing has been messed up for years now due to the fact the coaches have wanted him to pull the ball more. So maybe Charlie ruined him.

I blamed the HR derby that one year. He was killing the ball the other way the first half of the year, but then had to be in the all-star game in Pittsburgh, which is a place that's hard to hit a HR to LF. Everyone was saying before the contest that he would need to go against his natural swing and pull the ball. He pulled it very well in the HR contest and then started pulling the ball much more in the 2nd half, iirc. He was hitting them out all over the place, but over time he pulled it more and more. And then he just seemed to get messed up and never recovered. It now looks like he's just guessing up there. Anyway, I blame the need to pull the ball for the HR derby and the resulting awesomeness as starting him down the wrong path.

He's always been a guess hitter. He's got zero pitch recognition skills.

cano was part of that steroid clinic in florida. waiting for reaction from jay-z

JFLNYC wrote:He's always been a guess hitter. He's got zero pitch recognition skills.

If he was always a guess hitter then he sure did guess right an awful lot his first few years. I almost wonder if he's telling the truth because I remember hearing Charlie and others saying he should turn on the ball and pull it. Stuff like, "When he learns to pull the ball, he'll be even more deadly."

He hits the stuff he pulls on the ground, so a power guy like him with such an ability to go the other way should be concentrating on that rather than pulling the ball on the ground. He hits a ton of balls hard into that shift. It's a waste. Of course, teams don't mind him pulling it on the ground, so they try to get him to do just that.

He did guess right a lot in those years. Take a look at his splits and you'll see he was deadly on first-pitch fastballs and other fastball counts.

It's weird that "they" messed up his swing when he turned 30.

He averaged 50 HR per 162 through age 29, hitting 58, 47, 48, and 45 in his 4 full years 26-29. Since then, 34 per 162, and unhealthy.

He's 33. His bat has slowed. He tore his achilles. He was on the decline before that. There's no miracle cure, and no one effed up his swing. He's incredibly strong, and up until 30 his reactions were quick enough to make him elite. After this season, the $85M question is whether his reactions are still quick enough for him to be serviceable.

Exactly. Take a look at other big-body types at Howard's age (33). Guys like Cecil Fielder, Mo Vaughn, Kevin Mitchell. By around that age they were cooked. I'm not saying there haven't been exceptions (Willie Stargell and David Ortiz come to mind), but the odds were/are against Howard. Three things have happened over the years: (1) They stopped throwing him so many fastballs in fastball counts (especially first pitch); (2) He started guessing/hoping for a fastball early in the count and got himself behind in the count (which also explains why his walk rate has plummeted); and (3) His bat slowed with age so, even when he gets the fastball now, he's not as deadly.

That being said, even last year, on one leg, his numbers project out to 31 HR and 124 RBI, the latter eclipsed by only Hamilton and Cabrera, over 152 games. I still have faith he can be serviceable, and then some hopefully, despite the flaws

A lot of people wrote Ortiz off at age 33

Hope you're right, but Ortiz is nothing like Howard. The plate discipline makes all the difference in the world.

I agree that alot of the problem is just physical decline, and there isn't anything you can do about that (unless you want to roid up, which I would fully endorse for Howard). What kills me is that he is such a dumb hitter. It makes you wonder whether he even pays attention, let alone watches tape of how he's been pitched to for the last 5-6 years.

He'll be hot and cold and we're stuck with him.

Though when Kruk said Howard said he didn't even know if he could hit a ball to left field I almost started weeping.

Trent Steele wrote:Hope you're right, but Ortiz is nothing like Howard. The plate discipline makes all the difference in the world.

I agree that alot of the problem is just physical decline, and there isn't anything you can do about that (unless you want to roid up, which I would fully endorse for Howard). What kills me is that he is such a dumb hitter. It makes you wonder whether he even pays attention, let alone watches tape of how he's been pitched to for the last 5-6 years.

Howard is more like Ortiz than he is Kevin Mitchell

Agree on the plate discipline, it drives me nuts too. But I think he can remain "serviceable" with power and driving in runs. 30+ HR is less common than it was several years ago, and most of the sluggers' ISOs have declined at similar rates to Howard's

i don't the the 5.9% hr/fb is gonna hold up all season, though (career 28.3%, last year 27.5%). also the pitch f/x data clearly shows he sees way, way less total fastballs now compared to 2006-2009

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?pl ... #pitchtype

JUburton wrote:Though when Kruk said Howard said he didn't even know if he could hit a ball to left field I almost started weeping.

now i'm weeping. he wants to go the other way but simply can't now because...? fuk u ryan

People stopped giving him fastballs on 2-0 and 3-1 counts and he still swings like he's getting one every time.

I could understand it being a little harder to stay back with the achilles barking, but he put several balls out the other way in spring training and has hit a bunch to the track in April

I think he's just a little off on everything right now and hope it improves soon

it ain't just right now

Grotewold wrote:That being said, even last year, on one leg, his numbers project out to 31 HR and 124 RBI, the latter eclipsed by only Hamilton and Cabrera, over 152 games. I still have faith he can be serviceable, and then some hopefully, despite the flaws

A lot of people wrote Ortiz off at age 33

For 2012-2013, he's at .231 / .295 / .413, in 366 PA. (Raul Ibanez was .289 OBP and .419 SLG his last year with us; other .295ish / .413ish hitters in recent times include Pedro Feliz '05 and '07, Vernon Wells '11, Yuniesky Betancourt '10, Carl Crawford '11, and Omar Infante '12, among others) His OPS+ is 89. He has a good number of RBI (62), but that seems like the exception, not the rule. And certainly influenced by opportunities.

Ortiz hit .238 at 33, but had a .332 OBP and .462 SLG, and a 102 OPS+.

td11 wrote:i don't the the 5.9% hr/fb is gonna hold up all season, though (career 28.3%, last year 27.5%). also the pitch f/x data clearly shows he sees way, way less total fastballs now compared to 2006-2009

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?pl ... #pitchtype

Clearly not. But the groundball rate is problematic. If he maintains his current GB/FB rate (same as last year) and increases his HR/FB to 20% for the rest of the year, that would be 28 HR over 592 PA (which he is unlkely to get). He's not a useful player with 28 HRs. He's not going to maintain anything like his current .340 BABIP because of the shift, so you're probably looking at a .260ish, 25ish HR player who doesn't walk and can't move or play defense. Flarp.

I think the updated Steamer projection on FG is probably pretty good with fewer walks (no way he gets 9.4%) and therefore a lower wOBA. You probably can add 10-15 games to their total.