Phylan wrote:

Doll Is Mine wrote:With that said, he's still putting up decent numbers (at a time when hitting is down across the league)

he was 9% below league average in terms of OPS, as a first baseman. Granted, he was recovering from a nasty injury

Is that far enough from "decent" to justify your post?

Well clearly I think so or else I wouldn't have posted it

fwiw, he did have a .110 pt difference in OPS with the bases empty (.660) vs men on (.773). and he had a 1.044 OPS with RISP.

The Phillies promoted area amateur scout Eric Valent to northeast regional supervisor.

Connect the dots...

The Eric Valent?

fuck that guy

Anyone get reaction from the Fugees poster You > Valent?

td11 wrote:fwiw, he did have a .110 pt difference in OPS with the bases empty (.660) vs men on (.773). and he had a 1.044 OPS with RISP.

He has the ability to drive in runs. The above is a big reason why. Like other slugging first basemen, he gets shifted and men on base mess the shift up. It is a value that is not capture in stuff like WAR.

That said, I think teams would be smart to avoid the big slugging, aging first basemen in the future. Guys like Adrian Gonzalez, Tex and even Pujols seemed like better deals than Howard but now I'm not convinced even those guys are with big, long term money.

This isn't anything new or groundbreaking I'm sure. But finding a LaRoche for a year or two if you can't develop your own first baseman who can hit might be the ticket.

Maybe the ideal is a 1st baseman who has a nice glove and can OPS + around 115 and doesn't require a long term commitment. Use your big money for another position. You don't want some zero like Loney or a guy like him. But these big money first basemen are all kinda looking bad at this point.

Again, not groundbreaking thinking but a position I've been kind of consolidating over the last couple of years.

Woody wrote:http://vimeo.com/14687382

"Driving in runs" is not an independent skill from "being a good hitter" though. If you are a good hitter, and you're in a good lineup, people will be on base when you're up there doing you're good hitter thing, and they will score runs. The degree to which you are a good hitter IS captured pretty dang well in a simple AVG/OBP/SLG line.

Phylan wrote:"Driving in runs" is not an independent skill from "being a good hitter" though. If you are a good hitter, and you're in a good lineup, people will be on base when you're up there doing you're good hitter thing, and they will score runs. The degree to which you are a good hitter IS captured pretty dang well in a simple AVG/OBP/SLG line.

Except Howard always drives in a much higher percentage of runners than the average hitter does. His slash line was not good last year and he was certainly not in a particularly good lineup but he drove in a huge amount of runs in his 71 games. He does that every year. I believe the extreme shift has a lot to do with it. His hitting with runners on base is always better than with bases empty.

He's an RBI man.

i dunno, i'd rather have a player with a good size sample with the ability to get on base at a good clip, than a guy with a strong armed bat who can on some occasions drive in runs at an alright clip and with a downward trend of not getting on at all.

love it so much when he connects tho

Phylan wrote:

Doll Is Mine wrote:With that said, he's still putting up decent numbers (at a time when hitting is down across the league)

Are people still running this one out there? At a time when hitting is down across the league, he was 9% below league average in terms of OPS, as a first baseman. Granted, he was recovering from a nasty injury, but it's one that some athletes just don't recover from.

Sort of interested to see what the 2014-2015ish Ryan Howard talking points will be because dang

they will be "will he get a third/fourth MVP award this year"

smitty wrote:

Phylan wrote:"Driving in runs" is not an independent skill from "being a good hitter" though. If you are a good hitter, and you're in a good lineup, people will be on base when you're up there doing you're good hitter thing, and they will score runs. The degree to which you are a good hitter IS captured pretty dang well in a simple AVG/OBP/SLG line.

Except Howard always drives in a much higher percentage of runners than the average hitter does. His slash line was not good last year and he was certainly not in a particularly good lineup but he drove in a huge amount of runs in his 71 games. He does that every year. I believe the extreme shift has a lot to do with it. His hitting with runners on base is always better than with bases empty.

He's an RBI man.

I don't know about "much higher"

Average runners driven in, other than oneself, with men on base:

Code: Select all

     Howard     NL 1B

2005   0.23   0.21
2006   0.25   0.22
2007   0.24   0.21
2008   0.28   0.22   
2009   0.27   0.22
2010   0.24   0.20
2011   0.25   0.21
2012   0.28   0.20


It's not exactly drastic. And even if you're right, and it's the shift, I think teams shifting to stifle a ton of his balls in play in exchange for a slightly higher RBI rate is a good deal for them. I mean if we're talking about value I'll take a guy who can get on base and get lots of bases in the process of doing so over a guy's "RBI man-ness." I think most people would agree.

it's more than 9% innit

Bucky wrote:it's more than 9% innit

9.5%
13.6%
14.3%
27.3%
22.7%
20.0%
19.0%
40.0%

I didn't say anything about taking Howard over a better hitter or a guy who gets on base a ton or anything like that. In fact, I just posted about preferring an Adam LaRoche type 1Bman over giving big aging, sluggers a long term big dollar contract.

I'm merely pointing out that Howard's RBI ability is a skill. He drives in more runs than he "should" given his slash lines and WAR and stuff like that. He does it every year.

Sam Miller (I think that's his name) at BP recently wrote some stuff regarding this issue and Matt S also has in the past. The numbes support that view.

Howard is an RBI man. And he should get credit for that.

He gets 20MM+ credits.

When you consider that those numbers are per at-bat (w/ runners on) and multiple by a few hundred at-bats per season, it becomes a decent chunk of runs. In his full seasons, he had around 500 runners on base over ~700 PA. We're probably talking an additional 10-20 runs per season or 1-2 wins missed by WAR per season.

Why does it seem there is a movement to tell people who want to like Ryan Howard that they are idiots? I don't think anyone would disagree with the statement that his contract is insane and we'd be better off with out it, but what's done is done, we are stuck with him and his contract. That said he does in fact provide value, and the team played much better with him (and Utley) in the lineup, than without. I don't need stats being thrown out telling me how shitty his war is every time his name is brought up, I get it. I just choose to enjoy him being on the team for his past accomplishments, his ROY, MVP, "get me to the plate boys" in '09. If an opportunity arises to be rid of his contract and better the team, I'm all for it, but I like Ryan Howard and as long as he's a phillies, and hell even if he gets traded to the AL, I'm gonna root for him.