Phillies Random Thoughts RT: Season Is Over :-(

Re: Phillies Random Thoughts RT: Please Keep Winning

Postby smitty » Fri Sep 21, 2012 17:05:22

joe table wrote:
smitty wrote:
joe table wrote:Dom now has a 10.6% BB rate and a 16.5% K rate. ISO creeping up to .153. He has impressed me offensively, I think he has the best hitting approach on the team other than Utley and Chooch. Didn't look at the splits but he looks very comfortable facing lefties too (as well as hitting with 2 strikes), spits on those sliders. I think he can tap into his raw power more as well if just picks his spots and gets more aggressive in hitters counts


Stats are Utley vs. lefties but it's only in 41 PAs. .171 BA with a .607 OPS.

However, in games started by lefties, he has an .812 OPS. He must feast on RH reliefers.

His stats after getting two strikes are pretty ugly too although he will draw some walks.

Most guys have bad two strike stats so I'm thinking he will improve there as he does LOOK good hitting with two strikes.

I like his chances for being pretty good next season. Definitely feel bad for him.


Yeah those lefty splits are worse than I'd thought they be. Strangely enough the plate discipline stats are even better vs lefties though (14.6 BB%, 14.6 K%) so that bodes well. And maybe that's where I get the feeling that he looks okay vs them. I feel like he's had multiple ABs this year vs lefties where he's worked long counts and then hit hard ground balls right at the SS for a 6-4-3...good approach, bad result


I agree with all of that. I think he will do well vs. lefties in the future. I also think he may get a few more close calls from the umps as he gains veteranosity and that will help as well.
Last edited by smitty on Sat Sep 22, 2012 16:21:20, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Phillies Random Thoughts RT: Please Keep Winning

Postby smitty » Fri Sep 21, 2012 17:06:34

joe table wrote:Pretty good writeup from Dave Cameron about Jim's bizarre year

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.ph ... nt-season/

That looks like it’s pretty fortunate for the Phillies, because his September has been even better than his June. He’s already his seven home runs this month, and he’s slugging a ridiculous .681 over the team’s last 17 games. At +1.5 WAR, he’s been baseball’s best position player this month – yes, even better than the legendary Miguel Cabrera.

Rollins has played 40 games in June and September, which accounts for just 30% of his season total. In those two months, he’s accumulated +3.2 WAR, which is 65% of his total for the year. And, while some normal variation in performance over these kinds of arbitrary endpoints is expected, you don’t see these kinds of awful-bad-great-bad-okay-amazing kinds of swings too often.

Overall, the total package for the Phillies has been quite valuable, and there’s a pretty good case to be made that he’s been baseball’s best overall shortstop this year. It’s been a roller coaster of a ride, however, beginning with a few months where Rollins looked like a shell of his former self. However, for the last four months, he’s been showing better power than he has at any point since his MVP season of 2007, and even with the increase in strikeouts, Rollins is still a very productive player. While he turns 34 in November and is probably headed for some decline in the next few years, it certainly isn’t here yet. As long as he keeps driving the ball and playing quality defense at a premium position, he’ll continue to be among the league’s best players.


Dave Cameron has discovered the Good Jimmy/Bad Jimmy phenomenon.

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Re: Phillies Random Thoughts RT: Please Keep Winning

Postby smitty » Fri Sep 21, 2012 17:26:30

I don't care how much empirical mathematical evidence there is to the contrary, Ryan Howard has 53 RBI in 64 games (267 PAs) and that's valuable.

He's and RBI man and always has been.

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Re: Phillies Random Thoughts RT: Please Keep Winning

Postby phdave » Fri Sep 21, 2012 18:08:33

smitty wrote:I don't care how much empirical mathematical evidence there is to the contrary, Ryan Howard has 53 RBI in 64 games (267 PAs) and that's valuable.

He's and RBI man and always has been.


He's a baserunner scoring % man. Got this from baseballreference.com (BR = baserunners, BRS = baserunners scoring on the batter's play)


Code: Select all
                        BR      BRS     BRS% 
Jason Pridie*           8       2       25%
Ryan Howard*            199     42      21%
Pete Orr*               25      5       20%
Carlos Ruiz             240     47      20%
Hector Luna             44      8       18%
Jim Thome*              57      10      18%
Laynce Nix*             75      13      17%
Domonic Brown*          121     19      16%
Freddy Galvis#          132     21      16%
Erik Kratz              107     17      16%
Jimmy Rollins#          280     44      16%
Hunter Pence            307     46      15%
Juan Pierre*            197     27      14%
Chase Utley*            198     28      14%
Ty Wigginton            234     32      14%
League Average                          14%
Cliff Lee*              31      4       13%
Kevin Frandsen          92      11      12%
John Mayberry           268     33      12%
Placido Polanco         164     20      12%
Shane Victorino#        268     31      12%
Cole Hamels*            39      4       10%
Nate Schierholtz*       36      3       8%
Brian Schneider*        62      5       8%
Vance Worley            25      2       8%
Mike Fontenot*          57      4       7%
Michael Martinez#       71      5       7%
Roy Halladay            38      2       5%
Joe Blanton             25      1       4%
Tyler Cloyd             8       0       0%
David Herndon           0       0
Kyle Kendrick           16      0       0%
Steven Lerud*           7       0       0%
Darin Ruf               2       0       0%
Brian Sanches           0       0
Joe Savery*             0       0
Team Total              3433    486     14%


He's been above average over his career. This year is as high % as he has ever had.

Code: Select all
Year    BR      BRS     BRS%
2004    30      3       10%
2005    258     42      16%
2006    509     93      18%
2007    501     90      18%
2008    483     101     21%
2009    500     101     20%
2010    457     79      17%
2011    462     84      18%
2012    199     42      21%
9 Yrs   3399    635     19%
MLB Averages                    15%
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Re: Phillies Random Thoughts RT: Please Keep Winning

Postby phdave » Fri Sep 21, 2012 18:18:06

That stat explains to me why I feel like Galvis hit much better than I expected. He did a pretty good job of scoring runners when they were on. It seemed like he only got hits when runners were in scoring position.

It also confirms how Victorino, Polanco, and Mayberry killed us this year. Pence was higher than I expected.
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Re: Phillies Random Thoughts RT: Please Keep Winning

Postby joe table » Fri Sep 21, 2012 18:27:12

FYI, Kratz is missing a digit in your chart. Should be 116%

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Re: Phillies Random Thoughts RT: Please Keep Winning

Postby WheelsFellOff » Fri Sep 21, 2012 18:54:17

TIL Pete Orr is almost as good at scoring baserunners as Ryan Howard.
So far the Eagles have been unable willing to at least make a good will jester - Garry Cobb, Professional Sportswriter

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Re: Phillies Random Thoughts RT: Please Keep Winning

Postby swishnicholson » Fri Sep 21, 2012 19:31:30

phdave wrote: Pence was higher than I expected.


Only because I happened to notice it the other day, Pence has continued that with SFG, somehow driving in 36 runs in 47 games despite a .376 slugging average. Already has 95 RBI despite a subpar year otherwise.
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Re: Phillies Random Thoughts RT: Please Keep Winning

Postby CFP » Sat Sep 22, 2012 14:49:14

McCarthy/Karros today :(

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Re: Phillies Random Thoughts RT: Please Keep Winning

Postby TenuredVulture » Sat Sep 22, 2012 15:06:08

I was just thinking--a few years ago, I was grateful for meaningful September baseball. And it's late September, and the Phillies have a meaningful game. This season has been rough, but I'm not disappointed.
Be Bold!

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Re: Phillies Random Thoughts RT: Please Keep Winning

Postby PhillieMooDo » Sat Sep 22, 2012 18:57:25

TenuredVulture wrote:I was just thinking--a few years ago, I was grateful for meaningful September baseball. And it's late September, and the Phillies have a meaningful game. This season has been rough, but I'm not disappointed.

To have, basically, everything possible go wrong for most of the season, and still be alive with 10 to play speaks to how good this team is...can't wait to beat the fucking piss out of everybody next season.
"Only two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former" - Einstein

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Re: Phillies Random Thoughts RT: Please Keep Winning

Postby td11 » Sat Sep 22, 2012 19:57:10

Jim Salisbury ‏@JSalisburyCSN
Halladay had some spasms behind R shoulder in recent days. Said he was OK to pitch. He seemed emotional talking about tough season.

Jim Salisbury ‏@JSalisburyCSN
More of Halladay interview to come on http://CSNphilly.com and Comcast Sportsnet. Super private warrior opens up a little.
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Re: Phillies Random Thoughts RT: Please Keep Winning

Postby phdave » Sat Sep 22, 2012 20:24:41

PhillieMooDo wrote:
TenuredVulture wrote:I was just thinking--a few years ago, I was grateful for meaningful September baseball. And it's late September, and the Phillies have a meaningful game. This season has been rough, but I'm not disappointed.

To have, basically, everything possible go wrong for most of the season, and still be alive with 10 to play speaks to how good this team is...can't wait to beat the fucking piss out of everybody next season.


And they added talent to the minors and did not lose any for the first time in 6 years.
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Re: Phillies Random Thoughts RT: Please Keep Winning

Postby Barry Jive » Sat Sep 22, 2012 20:37:49

Let's not start sucking each others' dicks just yet. The only reason they're still in it is the second wild card.

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Re: Phillies Random Thoughts RT: Please Keep Winning

Postby JFLNYC » Sat Sep 22, 2012 20:49:57

When it's time, just go ahead and start without me.
Jamie

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Re: Phillies Random Thoughts RT: Please Keep Winning

Postby pacino » Sat Sep 22, 2012 20:51:56

let's not? :( but it's saturday
thephan wrote:pacino's posting is one of the more important things revealed in weeks.

Calvinball wrote:Pacino was right.

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Re: Phillies Random Thoughts RT: Please Keep Winning

Postby phdave » Sat Sep 22, 2012 21:31:00

I consider a .625 winning % in the second half a good reason to be optimistic no matter what happens in the wild card race.
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Re: Phillies Random Thoughts RT: Please Keep Winning

Postby pacino » Sat Sep 22, 2012 21:32:22

the best two things about the second half were to see kendrick's rise and utley's resurgence. these both mean good things for next season.
thephan wrote:pacino's posting is one of the more important things revealed in weeks.

Calvinball wrote:Pacino was right.

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Re: Phillies Random Thoughts RT: Please Keep Winning

Postby SK790 » Sat Sep 22, 2012 21:36:16

phdave wrote:I consider a .625 winning % in the second half a good reason to be optimistic no matter what happens in the wild card race.

what about teh dick sucking?
I like teh waether

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Re: Phillies Random Thoughts RT: Please Keep Winning

Postby phdave » Sat Sep 22, 2012 23:46:07

SK790 wrote:
phdave wrote:I consider a .625 winning % in the second half a good reason to be optimistic no matter what happens in the wild card race.

what about teh dick sucking?


On that point, I agree with Barry.
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