JFLNYC,

I agree with what you've said about Span being a cheap short-term option, but he's going to cost something in trade, no? Or are the Twins looking to dump him?

Is Bourn going to get 5/75? Is Vic? What's Cabrera's likely contract? I was thinking each of them would get something in the $10 million range per year.

phillychuck wrote:JFLNYC,

I agree with what you've said about Span being a cheap short-term option, but he's going to cost something in trade, no? Or are the Twins looking to dump him?

Is Bourn going to get 5/75? Is Vic? What's Cabrera's likely contract? I was thinking each of them would get something in the $10 million range per year.

On Bourn (repped by Boras) the speculation I've heard is that he's looking for 5/75-5/90. Coming off what will probably be a 5+ WAR year, I can't see him signing for $10MM/yr. Cabrera's going to end up 5+ for this year after 4.2 in 2011. He's going to get more than $10MM, too. Plus, we can both agree that he's not adequate defensively in CF.

If they can get Vic at a reasonable number, I'd be just fine with it. I just don't think it's going to happen.

Let me be a bit clearer, too, on how I view the Phils' 2013 in a larger perspective. By my calculations, right now they've got $18MM to spend before hitting the tax threshold. Let's take Monty at his word and assume they're willing to pay the tax next year. So, let's add an additional $10MM for Rube to spend. That's an arbitrary number; could be more, could be less. $10MM gets them to around $189MM, which would be their highest payroll ever and that's the tax threshold for 2014, which is why I picked it.

IMO, the Phils have 3 major holes to fill: 3B & 2 OF positions. If you're a fan of Brown and Schierholtz, you may think it's only one OF hole to fill. If you believe in neither, it's 3. I settled on 2 because I'm sure they're going to give Brown every last chance to succeed next year but I wouldn't want to go into the season with a corner OF corps of Brown, Schierholtz, Mayberry and Nix. To me, that's pretty pathetic.

If you want to get 3 good bats for those positions and have $28MM to spend, one of them is going to have to be below market value. If Rube were to snag Headley, it would make things much easier. Failing that, Span looks like he may be the best available alternative. There could be others and I'd certainly be open to other ideas. But a quality CF at $3.3MM AAV would be wonderful for the Phils. If Rube were then to trade for Aramis Ramirez and his $11.33MM AAV, they'd still have ~$12MM for a corner OF (Cabrera? Swisher?). But, again, if you have to pay market value for all 3 positions, $28MM ain't gonna cut it.

In any event, there are a lot of assumptions there. Maybe Monty will give Rube another $15MM to spend. Maybe Rube trades Lee for Olt. Maybe (as you suggest) the price for Span in terms of players will be too high. Maybe the Phils love the idea of a Schierholtz/Mayberry platoon. Maybe Vic misses Philly so much he'll change his mind and sign for 3/27. Any number of factors could change. But, based on what we know now, Span looks like a really attractive alternative.

is there still any noise that the Blanton dump was precursor to us taking on some salary with our high waiver number? probably just a pipe dream?

I thought the window was merely to complete any trades where the player was claimed--the waiving team has 48 hours to work out a deal, pull the player off waivers, or let him go to the claiming team. But after that, any player on a 40-man roster who cleared waivers can be traded.

Right?

Oh nevermind, I misread his question. I guess some team might wait to put their guys on waivers, but that wouldn't make much sense. So yeah, the Phils aren't going to be making any waivers acquisitions.

In his chat today, Gelb said he expects Brown, Free Agent, Schierholz/Hairston type in the OF next season, with Amaro "kicking on the tires" on Bourn. Also don't rule out Victorino.

RichmondPhilsFan wrote:Oh nevermind, I misread his question. I guess some team might wait to put their guys on waivers, but that wouldn't make much sense. So yeah, the Phils aren't going to be making any waivers acquisitions.

A team that is currently on the margins of the playoff race might not put their players on waivers yet. I think you can only do it once. They might be more inclined to give a player away for a low return later in August. I think the Phillies are not going to make any acquisitions of decent players from bad teams.

For all of the players who cleared waivers without any team claiming them, I am not sure what the rule is for what happens next. Does the team retain his rights for an indefinite period of time or do they have to do something with him in a certain number of days? If they have to do something with the player within a period of time, I can see why a team would wait. Alternatively, if they don't have to do anything right away, they could have put players on waivers who passed through and are just waiting to make the best deal. It seems like every year there are big names that get traded closer to August 31st.

Just noticed this. The Phillies have the best SIERA in baseball:

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?p ... &sort=19,a

bleh wrote:Just noticed this. The Phillies have the best SIERA in baseball:

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?p ... &sort=19,a

Starters lead in many sabreboy pitching categories. Relievers are somehow 8th in the MLB in SIERA, 26th in WPA though. Phils leading reliever by WPA: Cyle Kendirk

phdave wrote:

RichmondPhilsFan wrote:Oh nevermind, I misread his question. I guess some team might wait to put their guys on waivers, but that wouldn't make much sense. So yeah, the Phils aren't going to be making any waivers acquisitions.

For all of the players who cleared waivers without any team claiming them, I am not sure what the rule is for what happens next. Does the team retain his rights for an indefinite period of time or do they have to do something with him in a certain number of days? If they have to do something with the player within a period of time, I can see why a team would wait. Alternatively, if they don't have to do anything right away, they could have put players on waivers who passed through and are just waiting to make the best deal. It seems like every year there are big names that get traded closer to August 31st.

I thought that once they cleared waivers, they were free to be traded at any time, with the obvious asterisk of August 31st being (generally) the last day for postseason roster eligibility.

I can't find the actual text of the rule, but here's a summary that I found:

•A club can not request waivers on more than seven players in one day.
•No waivers shall be requested from October 10 to November 10 except Outright Waivers.
•No waivers may be requested on weekends or holidays.
•If a request is withdrawn, waivers may not be requested on the same player for 30 days, excepting Unconditional Release Waivers.
•When waivers are requested: (a) for the second time by the same club on a player who has already been claimed once that season; or (b) for Outright Waivers, the waiver request is irrevocable and may not be withdrawn.
•Waivers cannot be requested on a Rule 5 pick until 25 days before opening day. If waivers are obtained on such a player after that date, the player may not be assigned until 20 days before opening day.
•Waivers cannot be obtained for players on the inactive lists.
•Waivers may not be obtained by players on the disabled list unless the team guarantees that the player is healthy and ready to be activated within 72 hours.
•Waivers may not be re-requested on a player who is already on waivers (for the purpose of re-starting the waiver clock).

•Waivers granted on or after November 11 shall be in effect until February 15.
•Waivers granted on or after February 16 shall be in effect until the 30th day of the following season.
•Waivers granted on or after the 31st day of the season shall be in effect until July 31.
•Waivers granted on or after August 1 shall be in effect until November 10.

Also, I found this interesting:

If a claiming team is assigned a player and that team’s roster limit is full, the team must designate a player for assignment. The claimed player may not be the designated player.

Another random thing about the bullpen, they are 29th in the MLB in flyball rate at 39.7%, and even that is skewed by all the Quallllllz appearances (he was at 54% this year). Extreme flyball pen, which resulted in fourth-worst HR/9 rate. I think Aumont and DeFratus are both supposed to be 50+% GB guys, so need them to stop dicking around

RichmondPhilsFan wrote:I can't find the actual text of the rule, but here's a summary that I found:

•A club can not request waivers on more than seven players in one day.
•No waivers shall be requested from October 10 to November 10 except Outright Waivers.
•No waivers may be requested on weekends or holidays.
•If a request is withdrawn, waivers may not be requested on the same player for 30 days, excepting Unconditional Release Waivers.
•When waivers are requested: (a) for the second time by the same club on a player who has already been claimed once that season; or (b) for Outright Waivers, the waiver request is irrevocable and may not be withdrawn.
•Waivers cannot be requested on a Rule 5 pick until 25 days before opening day. If waivers are obtained on such a player after that date, the player may not be assigned until 20 days before opening day.
•Waivers cannot be obtained for players on the inactive lists.
•Waivers may not be obtained by players on the disabled list unless the team guarantees that the player is healthy and ready to be activated within 72 hours.
•Waivers may not be re-requested on a player who is already on waivers (for the purpose of re-starting the waiver clock).

•Waivers granted on or after November 11 shall be in effect until February 15.
•Waivers granted on or after February 16 shall be in effect until the 30th day of the following season.
•Waivers granted on or after the 31st day of the season shall be in effect until July 31.
•Waivers granted on or after August 1 shall be in effect until November 10.

I thought that a team had a lot of time before they had to do something with the player but I realized I was not sure. It looks like there is still a chance the Phillies might claim someone or make a trade for someone who passed through waivers. I'm not sure how much below the lux tax they are, so that will be a consideration.

joe table wrote:

bleh wrote:Just noticed this. The Phillies have the best SIERA in baseball:

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?p ... &sort=19,a

Starters lead in many sabreboy pitching categories. Relievers are somehow 8th in the MLB in SIERA, 26th in WPA though. Phils leading reliever by WPA: Cyle Kendirk

Doesn't SIERA considers meatballs down the center of the plate that are hit for 450 foot home runs to be "poor luck?" Blanton was somewhat of a champion of this during this season.

philliesphhan wrote:

joe table wrote:

bleh wrote:Just noticed this. The Phillies have the best SIERA in baseball:

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?p ... &sort=19,a

Starters lead in many sabreboy pitching categories. Relievers are somehow 8th in the MLB in SIERA, 26th in WPA though. Phils leading reliever by WPA: Cyle Kendirk

Doesn't SIERA considers meatballs down the center of the plate that are hit for 450 foot home runs to be "poor luck?" Blanton was somewhat of a champion of this during this season.

A Baseball Prospectus guy pointed out that Blanton's 115 Ks to 18 BBs was not only the best in the league but the best by a bunch. He also has a really high line drive rate, fly ball percentage and HR pct. of fly balls.

The Phillies staff as a whole is similar as they have by far the best K/BB rate in the league but are still giving up lots of runs.

SIERA isn't the best way to evaluate our pitchers. Perhaps we should be using GRAND TETON.

Reminds me of Lieber. That guy refused to walk people.

Also reminds me how far we've come. Lieber was our opening day starter FFS

I know, right. I was just thinking about this at the Leashless park while walking the dogs.
In previous years our aces were Millwood, Milton, Myers, Padilla and Freddie Garcia as well as Lieber.

Yowsa.

Freddie Garcia and his $10M win

joe table wrote:

bleh wrote:Just noticed this. The Phillies have the best SIERA in baseball:

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?p ... &sort=19,a

Starters lead in many sabreboy pitching categories. Relievers are somehow 8th in the MLB in SIERA, 26th in WPA though. Phils leading reliever by WPA: Cyle Kendirk

True Phillie.

The Mets is a good thing. They're like the WPA. They give everyone a job.

/// Some guy circa 1962