Stupid question, but does it seem like every Phillies has some sort of foundation now? I guess it's because we've never had this many multimillionaires and marketable guys on the team before, but I just don't remember it ever being like this.

Friggin' Lindblom has a foundation.

Cafardo:

Bourn could be a free agent target of the Phillies this winter now that they’ve dealt Shane Victorino. Another likely target of the Phillies could be Jacoby Ellsbury, Denard Span of the Twins, or the Angels’ Peter Bourjos. They’re trying out John Mayberry Jr. for the remainder of the season, but the Phillies want a dynamic player.

It appears the Astros could be the one and only managerial opening for the coming season unless the Phillies cut ties with Charlie Manuel

[Francona’s] already managed Philadelphia, so it’s unlikely the Phillies would bring him back for a second tenure.

Well, here's Qualls' signature.

Looks like "POPO"

Rev_Beezer wrote:Well, here's Qualls' signature.

Did he used to work on the boardwalk writing stuff on a grain of rice?

Span's the man. Very reasonable contract for next 2 years.

JFLNYC wrote:Span's the man. Very reasonable contract for next 2 years.

His contract is his only "plus". He's a below average CF, his OPS+ over the last three years is around 90, and he doesn't steal bases any more. His best year was his rookie year 6 years ago--he hasn't adjusted or improved. He also hits lefty, which imbalances our lineup even more.

How about signing the surgically repaired Ryan Madson to an incentive heavy deal for next year?

Span: 105 OPS+ this year, 2.7 WAR (for comparison Victorino is 1.9), 6.3 UZR/150 (Victorino hasn't been that high since 2008), .328 wOBA, 107 wRC+ this year (.335, 107 career -- Bourn is .324, 99 for his career) and hits LHP better than RHP for his career. Salaries for 13-14: $4.75MM, $6.5MM.

Are we talking about the same Denard Span? If there's a better realistic CF FA or trade candidate for the 2013 Phillies, I'd love to know who it is.

The B1G Piece wrote:Chase has a .839 OPS, thanks to a 12.5% walk rate and a .226 ISO hmmm

.877 OPS and .245 ISO FUCK YEAH HE IS AWESOME.

Also 133 OPS+ ZOMG.

JFLNYC wrote:Span: 105 OPS+ this year, 2.7 WAR (for comparison Victorino is 1.9), 6.3 UZR/150 (Victorino hasn't been that high since 2008), .328 wOBA, 107 wRC+ this year (.335, 107 career -- Bourn is .324, 99 for his career) and hits LHP better than RHP for his career. Salaries for 13-14: $4.75MM, $6.5MM.

Are we talking about the same Denard Span? If there's a better realistic CF FA or trade candidate for the 2013 Phillies, I'd love to know who it is.

And he has a $9MM team option for 2015 with a $500K buyout.

I'll note that his two subpar years coincided with the move to Target Field. Not sure what that means.

Brown gives you some pretty good ABs huh? His defense hasn't been brutal yet either.

JFLNYC wrote:Span: 105 OPS+ this year, 2.7 WAR (for comparison Victorino is 1.9), 6.3 UZR/150 (Victorino hasn't been that high since 2008), .328 wOBA, 107 wRC+ this year (.335, 107 career -- Bourn is .324, 99 for his career). Salaries for 13-14: $4.75MM, $6.5MM.

Are we talking about the same Denard Span? If there's a better realistic CF FA or trade candidate for the 2013 Phillies, I'd love to know who it is.

Here are Span's OPS+'s over the last three years:

88, 90, 105 (currently)

If you choose to believe his 2012 to date represents his true level of ability rather than 2011/2010, I'd have to disagree--I see 2012 as a 28-year-old having a career year.

In terms of his defense, there is probably agreement between us that he has a below average arm (look at the advancement and kill stats on fangraphs or BBRef). His UZR/150 is indeed 6.3 as a CF so far this year, but UZR takes multiple seasons to even out, and his career UZR/150 is 3.4, compared to Vic's 3.6. Defensive metrics show Vic as a below average CF despite his speed, and Span is not quite as good as Vic over his career. And he's a lefty.

He does have a decent contract. He's probably better than Mayberry offensively and defensively in CF. But he's not a plus player for a championship contending team. Nor is Bourn at his age, although Bourn's defense (UZR/150 of 9.4, great arm) is far better. If Bourn would take a 3-year, 30-36 million deal I'd prefer him even given is age and lefthandedness because of his defense. Hamilton is so inconsistent from year-to-year and so injury-prone I wouldn't want to pay him what he's going to command. Melky Cabrera has had a better year than either of them with the bat, but he's probably the worst CF of the free agents defensively, and he might be having that career year, too...but he's probably worth taking the chance on more than Bourn, Span, or Hamilton. I'd prefer just re-signing Vic to a bargain contract.

Guessing at contracts for the free agents, I'd rate the mentioned CFs as:

Victorino
Cabrera
Bourn
Span
Mayberry/cheap platoon partner
Hamilton

RichmondPhilsFan wrote:

JFLNYC wrote:Span: 105 OPS+ this year, 2.7 WAR (for comparison Victorino is 1.9), 6.3 UZR/150 (Victorino hasn't been that high since 2008), .328 wOBA, 107 wRC+ this year (.335, 107 career -- Bourn is .324, 99 for his career) and hits LHP better than RHP for his career. Salaries for 13-14: $4.75MM, $6.5MM.

Are we talking about the same Denard Span? If there's a better realistic CF FA or trade candidate for the 2013 Phillies, I'd love to know who it is.

And he has a $9MM team option for 2015 with a $500K buyout.

I'll note that his two subpar years coincided with the move to Target Field. Not sure what that means.

Btw, the AAV on his contract is $3.3MM.

.277/.383/.455

.264/.368/.509

Utley's first 120 PAs last year, vs his 120 PAs so far this year. Hopefully he doesn't fall off a cliff again. The rest of the year he hit .253/.330/.414

phillychuck wrote:

JFLNYC wrote:Span: 105 OPS+ this year, 2.7 WAR (for comparison Victorino is 1.9), 6.3 UZR/150 (Victorino hasn't been that high since 2008), .328 wOBA, 107 wRC+ this year (.335, 107 career -- Bourn is .324, 99 for his career). Salaries for 13-14: $4.75MM, $6.5MM.

Are we talking about the same Denard Span? If there's a better realistic CF FA or trade candidate for the 2013 Phillies, I'd love to know who it is.

Here are Span's OPS+'s over the last three years:

88, 90, 105 (currently)

If you choose to believe his 2012 to date represents his true level of ability rather than 2011/2010, I'd have to disagree--I see 2012 as a 28-year-old having a career year.

In terms of his defense, there is probably agreement between us that he has a below average arm (look at the advancement and kill stats on fangraphs or BBRef). His UZR/150 is indeed 6.3 as a CF so far this year, but UZR takes multiple seasons to even out, and his career UZR/150 is 3.4, compared to Vic's 3.6. Defensive metrics show Vic as a below average CF despite his speed, and Span is not quite as good as Vic over his career. And he's a lefty.

He does have a decent contract. He's probably better than Mayberry offensively and defensively in CF. But he's not a plus player for a championship contending team. Nor is Bourn at his age, although Bourn's defense (UZR/150 of 9.4, great arm) is far better. If Bourn would take a 3-year, 30-36 million deal I'd prefer him even given is age and lefthandedness because of his defense. Hamilton is so inconsistent from year-to-year and so injury-prone I wouldn't want to pay him what he's going to command. Melky Cabrera has had a better year than either of them with the bat, but he's probably the worst CF of the free agents defensively, and he might be having that career year, too...but he's probably worth taking the chance on more than Bourn, Span, or Hamilton. I'd prefer just re-signing Vic to a bargain contract.

The problem is Rube has said he talked to Vic's reps about an extension and realized they weren't anywhere near each other, which is why Vic was traded. Sure, I'd take Bourn or Vic or Hamilton on a bargain contract, too. But that's not going to happen for any of them. Span is available, on a great contract and has numbers very comparable both to Vic and Bourn for his career, both offensively and defensively. For example, if, as you note, "UZR takes multiple seasons to even out," Bourn's over the last 3 seasons is 11.5, Span's 9.5. Not a lot of daylight there.

Between Vic and Span, I think you can pretty much flip a coin going forward. Bourn's better than Span, but not at anything approaching 5/90 (or even 5/75). That would be just another example of Rube overpaying for someone's services heading into the downside of his career.

For a team with 2 holes in the outfield to fill (unless you're a huge Schierholtz fan), a hole at 3B and issues in the bullpen, bench and back of the rotation, the value of getting production value which far outstrips salary (which is what Span gives you) cannot be overstated. An AAV of $3.3MM for a good CF is way, way, way more valuable to the Phils than getting even 2 more WAR production from Bourn at $15-$18MM AAV or maybe an extra WAR from Vic for $10+MM. The extra $7MM-$14MM can be put to better use elsewhere.

Chase seems to have picked the right anti-aging clinic in Arizona this time

JFLNYC wrote:

RichmondPhilsFan wrote:

JFLNYC wrote:Span: 105 OPS+ this year, 2.7 WAR (for comparison Victorino is 1.9), 6.3 UZR/150 (Victorino hasn't been that high since 2008), .328 wOBA, 107 wRC+ this year (.335, 107 career -- Bourn is .324, 99 for his career) and hits LHP better than RHP for his career. Salaries for 13-14: $4.75MM, $6.5MM.

Are we talking about the same Denard Span? If there's a better realistic CF FA or trade candidate for the 2013 Phillies, I'd love to know who it is.

And he has a $9MM team option for 2015 with a $500K buyout.

I'll note that his two subpar years coincided with the move to Target Field. Not sure what that means.

Btw, the AAV on his contract is $3.3MM.

To be clear, I was saying the team option with a nothing buyout makes him a very intriguing option. Much cheaper than re-signing Shane or signing Bourn, and if he goes off by moving from Target Field (slightly below neutral to hitters) to CBP, then his 2015 option is a no-brainer.

Obviously, it depends on what he'd cost in prospects, but I like the idea at least.

Woody wrote:Chase seems to have picked the right anti-aging clinic in Arizona this time

shut him down and save it for next year.