LastTrain wrote:Trent Steele wrote:PAPS has a .5 WAR and -.42 WPA. That doesn't seem good. On the bright side, only Valdes has a better WAR among our reliefers.
The WPA is a little bit par for the course with closers. They enter in games that are almost always won by their team anyway (90+ % even in a 1-run save situation), so their positive WPA never moves all that far. Then they blow a game or two and the negative side moves dramatically.
It's the numbers behind the theory to get the best reliever in the games that are the closest (-1, tie, +1) and keep them out of the +3s even though it's technically a save situation. On the flip side, of course, there's the theory that guys with the closer mentality just don't get the adrenaline to pitch as well in the -1 and tie situations as they do in the +1, +2 or +3 situations.
His WPAs have been pretty consistently solid in other years though. Averaged +3.45 in six seasons as a full-time reliever. So he's picked some poor times to give up his runs this year to date
