CrashburnAlley wrote:Ryan Howard's ISO is 120 points lower than his career average and his HR/FB is half his career average. Last 10 hits have been singles.

Yeah, I've noticed how he has been reduced to Pete Rose lately. Without the walks.

Is that the kind of thing that's supposed to regress like BABIP? I know HR/FB generally does for pitchers over a long enough period of time, but what about batters?

Barry Jive wrote:Is that the kind of thing that's supposed to regress like BABIP? I know HR/FB generally does for pitchers over a long enough period of time, but what about batters?

The more samples you take, the more likely the results will reflect true probability. Unless there's a significant difference in his approach this year, Howard will likely hit a home run once for every three fly balls he hits as the season progresses.

Howard's standard deviation for HR/FB over the past four years is about 6% (quick and dirty calculation), so there's about a 68% chance it will fall between 25% and 37% and a 95% chance it will fall between 19% and 41%. Right now it's at 17% so he's been defying the odds so far, two standard deviations away from his mean.

What's mystifying is that his contact rate has shot up both inside and outside of the strike zone but he has decreased his swing rate at pitches inside the strike zone and increased his swing rate at pitches outside the strike zone. In other words, he will be making bad contact much more often than he will make good contact. This isn't reassuring to say the least. It likely has a lot to do with facing southpaws but it's not like Howard is going to see fewer of them.

He needs to be more patient. As long as he keeps getting himself out, there's no reason for pitchers to throw strikes. Either he's not recognizing pitches or he's pressing, not that he's ever been a big walk guy (other than his first year or so).

BigEd76 wrote:

...Katilina Rose (4/18/06) and Yenifer (8/24/06)

hmm

Yenifer is from Guatemala in case anyone was wondering if they just start to arrive sooner after the seventh one.

CrashburnAlley wrote:

Barry Jive wrote:Is that the kind of thing that's supposed to regress like BABIP? I know HR/FB generally does for pitchers over a long enough period of time, but what about batters?

What's mystifying is that his contact rate has shot up both inside and outside of the strike zone but he has decreased his swing rate at pitches inside the strike zone and increased his swing rate at pitches outside the strike zone. In other words, he will be making bad contact much more often than he will make good contact. This isn't reassuring to say the least. It likely has a lot to do with facing southpaws but it's not like Howard is going to see fewer of them.

He has been hacking against RHBs too though, 3 IBBs in 91 plate appearances that he was pitched to.

He has been struggling with his timing the past few weeks IMO, esp the front (right) foot part of his timing mechanism, and it has caused him to get a little off balance and overly pull happy. When a guy struggles with something mechanically it is understandable/feasible that they become more aggressive, because you can't work on trying to fix something in your swing when you're not swinging.

Yesterday though he stayed back and hit a nice shot to LCF though off Cook and then followed that with a clean hit against Beimel his next AB. So hopefully those are signs that he will start letting the ball travel more, be more confident in mechanics and relaxed in his approach and drive the ball the other way more frequently.

When he has the LCF approach against both righties and lefties, the HRs really do come in bunches with him

Playing two games in four days is lame

jerseyhoya wrote:Playing two games in four days is lame

I hate that they've played only 2 night games in last 8 days

Trent Steele wrote:

jerseyhoya wrote:Playing two games in four days is lame

I hate that they've played only 2 night games in last 8 days

Night games are my only valid excuse for not going to the gym after work.

What are the odds we see a roster move today?

so...likelihood of me seeing Halladay on Monday? i mean, skipping Kendrick this time through the rotation with all the off days is pretty freaking likely right?

That game sucked yesterday, in part because Charlie is handcuffed by the roster at the moment. If Ruiz isn't going to be available to play tomorrow, they should really make a roster move, especially if Castro is still limited. DL Lidge (preferably) or DL Romero or DFA Figueroa if we're not going to use him, because having a three person bench with no backup catcher is dumb.

Pitchers
Danys Baez
Joe Blanton
Jose Contreras
Chad Durbin
Nelson Figueroa - Hasn't pitched since May 3rd
Roy Halladay
Cole Hamels
David Herndon
Kyle Kendrick - Needs to be replaced in the rotation
Brad Lidge - Getting an MRI
Jamie Moyer
J.C. Romero - Not trusted to get important lefties out because he's still hurt or just not good

Catchers
Paul Hoover
Carlos Ruiz - Day to day

Infielders
Juan Castro - Supposed to be back soon, right?
Greg Dobbs
Ryan Howard
Placido Polanco
Chase Utley
Wilson Valdez

Outfielders
Ben Francisco
Ross Gload
Raul Ibanez
Shane Victorino
Jayson Werth

Agreed.

seke2 wrote:so...likelihood of me seeing Halladay on Monday? i mean, skipping Kendrick this time through the rotation with all the off days is pretty freaking likely right?

Kendrick has to pitch either Monday or Tuesday.

They're going to have to DL Lidge and call up a catcher. There's no other option.

Phillies bullpen has thrown the fewest innings in the NL at 85.3. Mets have tossed 124.7 -- only the Pirates have thrown more.

Where's the Pollyanna thread? Think of how fresh Madson's arm will be once he gets back.

http://www.metsrefugees.com/forum/showthread.php_t=36533

LOL

This was the original thread title, before they change it: "Phillies lose 1st round pick!!!"

ek wrote:http://zoowithroy.spreadshirt.com/-A6030177/customize/color/196

jerseyhoya wrote:

ek wrote:http://zoowithroy.spreadshirt.com/-A6030177/customize/color/196

That shirt is smugtastic.