lol

Boras really thinks a lot of his own reputation, doesn't he?

Holy hell, he's insane. I wonder if Scotty talks this type of hyperbole in his day to day life?

Scott, do we need milk?

100 gallons.

How about 2?

100 or I start drinking soy.

FTN wrote:

some club officials think that if Washington takes San Diego State pitcher Stephen Strasburg with the first overall pick, Boras will ask for Daisuke Matsuzaka money (six years, approximately $50 million) or take him to Japan for a year, a threat that may scare Stan Kasten into selecting a lesser prospect.

- Gammons

If he goes to Japan, he can't be a FA for 10 seasons, right? He'd have to be posted by the team that signs him?

lethal wrote:

FTN wrote:

some club officials think that if Washington takes San Diego State pitcher Stephen Strasburg with the first overall pick, Boras will ask for Daisuke Matsuzaka money (six years, approximately $50 million) or take him to Japan for a year, a threat that may scare Stan Kasten into selecting a lesser prospect.

- Gammons

If he goes to Japan, he can't be a FA for 10 seasons, right? He'd have to be posted by the team that signs him?

i think that's only the case for jap born citizens. i believe it's why tazawa didn't want anyone to draft him over there.

i think there's also an agreement where no US teams would go after jap HS talent, though that might be an unspoken agreement.

lethal wrote:

FTN wrote:

some club officials think that if Washington takes San Diego State pitcher Stephen Strasburg with the first overall pick, Boras will ask for Daisuke Matsuzaka money (six years, approximately $50 million) or take him to Japan for a year, a threat that may scare Stan Kasten into selecting a lesser prospect.

- Gammons

If he goes to Japan, he can't be a FA for 10 seasons, right? He'd have to be posted by the team that signs him?

Thats only Japanese born players. Guys go from the majors to Japan all the time for only one or two years and sometimes return back to the states. If Boras took him to Japan (which he won't), I'm sure he'd sign a 1 year deal with special provisions.

Its not going to get to that. I think he'll get something like this

$10M up front, plus a 3 year ML contract where he'll make like 750K per year, and then be arb eligible.

Boras is bad for the game. That is all there is to it. His threats, and the actions he backs them up with are pretty lousy. I took heat because it was interpreted that bailing out on the draft allows players to pick who they want, where it is really that they get to pick who they do not want. Not a bad deal for the player, bout lousy for the club in terms of both player development and reputation (yes, I am aware that they Yankees failed to sign Gerrit Cole). I still think that there needs to be some kind of penalty for opting out of the draft and not going to college. Maybe a significant extension of the period of time before the player is free agent eligible.

As to the Nationals, I am not sure a $10M upfront if a good use of club money for a guy who's mechanics could make him either be John Smoltz or explode his way onto the DL for a majority of his career. Last years #1 pick got (Beckham) $6.15M, so $10M is as stretch, especially in this economy. I see the Nats being gun shy to pull a trigger with that type of perceived risk, especially since their ownership does not seem to be the best, and their wealth base, mostly shopping malls, have been taking broadside in this economy.

To me, it isn't that Boras is bad for the game, it's that he's bad for most of his clients. I don't think he did JD Drew any favors, for one. I think part of what's going on here is that Boras wants to essentially render the draft irrelevant, making prospects into free agents. This is certainly good for agents, probably not good for 99 percent of pro prospects, and terrible for the league. And he'll use talented players to achieve this goal.

thephan wrote:As to the Nationals, I am not sure a $10M upfront if a good use of club money for a guy who's mechanics could make him either be John Smoltz or explode his way onto the DL for a majority of his career. Last years #1 pick got (Beckham) $6.15M, so $10M is as stretch, especially in this economy. I see the Nats being gun shy to pull a trigger with that type of perceived risk, especially since their ownership does not seem to be the best, and their wealth base, mostly shopping malls, have been taking broadside in this economy.

Well if you want to do some funny math, consider it a double down 5 million bet on Strasburg instead of Aaron Crow, who they failed to sign last year. Not drafting Strasburg would be a mistake of epic proportions. No denying that he doesn't have perfect mechanics, but the upside more than covers the risk.

Keith Law's report on Strasburg is up on the draft blog

What you have heard on Stephen Strasburg is true. He is bar none the best college pitching prospect in at least 10 years, and there's nobody close to him -- college or high school, pitcher or position player -- in this draft.

The stuff is legit. The San Diego State right-hander hit 99 twice on my gun Friday, sat 97-99 through the third inning against Brigham Young and was still touching 98 in the seventh while never dropping below 94. His fastball has hard riding life to his glove side. His slider was a wipeout pitch, 81-84 mph with tilt and depth and a high degree of toxicity to opposing hitters.

///

He takes an enormous stride toward the plate and generates absurd arm speed as his arm catches up to the rest of his body (that is, his arm is slightly "late" relative to his front side), which is a double-edged sword since it gives him great velocity but the lag puts some extra stress on his shoulder. He has no problems repeating his delivery, which is a good sign for future command.

If there's a concern on Strasburg, it's that a handful of guys who saw sudden spikes in their velocities have broken down soon afterward -- Boston prospect Nick Hagadone blew out his elbow inside of a year, while Joel Zumaya got about four years in before his arm went haywire -- the theory being that their arms weren't physically able to handle the increases in arm speed.

http://insider.espn.go.com/espn/blog/in ... =mlb_draft

I think the point is, if you had both Strasburg and a Wieters-type position player available, you would probably go with the position player. But Strasburg is so, so far above and beyond anyone else, that you have to select him, questionable mechanics or not.

Do you even try to mess with his mechanics, which most likely results in lesser stuff, or do you gamble and see if he can hold up?

All pitchers are a gamble to see if they're going to hold up so I say you ride that million dollar pony for all it's worth until his rotator cuff comes flying off

kruker wrote:Do you even try to mess with his mechanics, which most likely results in lesser stuff, or do you gamble and see if he can hold up?

You could take the "nowhere but down" approach but there's always the chance that "correcting" his mechanics wouldn't downgrade his stuff appreciably.

Besides, how many guys with "perfect mechanics" flame out, too? Not a perfect science, and you go loonnnnnng on talent like this.

Woody wrote:All pitchers are a gamble to see if they're going to hold up so I say you ride that million dollar pony for all it's worth until his rotator cuff comes flying off

I think if it was my call, I'd let it go and if he's still going strong in 2-3 years, sell high, high, high and move him for a boatload of prospects.

I think the stuff over his mechanics is overblown. He doesn't have an ideal delivery. But remember people were saying "we might take Lincecum if we can alter his mechanics", but there is no way in hell SF would alter his mechanics now. Not every pitcher with ugly mechanics gets hurt, and his mechanics aren't ugly, they just aren't ideal.

Lots of pitchers with less than ideal mechanics never get hurt. People are saying "oh no, he might be John Smoltz"....well I think the Nationals would settle for drafting John Smoltz and giving him a $15M contract.

FTN wrote:
Lots of pitchers with less than ideal mechanics never get hurt. People are saying "oh no, he might be John Smoltz"....well I think the Nationals would settle for drafting John Smoltz and giving him a $15M contract.

I know! Why is that such an oft-cited example? For God's sake, the guy is (almost definitely) a Hall of Famer. Why is he suddenly a cautionary tale?

Boswell is an idiot

If the Nats pass on Strasburg, and in 5 years he's won a Cy Young, they may as well move the team again. If there was a flat out stud position player, that would be one thing, but there isn't. Ackley is a good hitter, but if he can't play CF, his value is greatly diminished, and Grant Green has struggled out of the gate.

Strasburg isn't going to get a $25M deal. 15M. And the Nats would be morons to pass on him

He thinks that where a person is picked affects their future performance.

As I said earlier, if it was my call, I'd draft him and then move him in 2-3 years and try to use that trade to acquire enough prospects to establish that system. They need much more than Strasburg to turn that organization around, but the plan should be to draft him and then move him later on.

But that's not realistic, or all that intelligent unless someone is going to pay through the nose for him.

If they draft him and put him in the rotation in 2010 and he puts up huge numbers for 3 years, how will they justify trading him, especially if he doesn't have any injuries. You don't rebuild the system overnight and you don't do it with one trade.

They need to take Strasburg and then take a premium guy with their 2nd round pick, and then they need 3-4 more great drafts.

Well, I'm working on the assumption that someone is going to pay an insane bounty for him. I certainly wouldn't force a trade or make the intention well known, but if things are still in the state that they currently are (roundabout) for the Nats, that's what I'd do.