Squire wrote:32 baybee. Outstanding.

SQUIRE

First-Round Picks
1. Nationals
2. Mariners
3. Padres
4. Pirates
5. Orioles
6. Giants
7. Braves
8. Reds
9. Tigers
10. Nationals (for failure to sign 2008 first-rounder Aaron Crow)
11. Rockies
12. Royals
13. Athletics
14. Rangers
15. Indians
16. Diamondbacks
17. Dodgers
18. Marlins
19. Cardinals
20. Blue Jays
21. Mariners (if they fail to sign 2008 first-rounder Joshua Fields)
22. Astros
23. Twins
24. White Sox
25. Angels (from Mets for Francisco Rodriguez, A)
26. Angels (from Yankees for C.C. Sabathia, A)
27. Brewers
28. Mariners (from Phillies for Raul Ibanez, A)
29. Yankees (for failure to sign 2008 first-rounder Gerrit Cole)
30. Red Sox
31. Rays
32. Cubs
33. Angels
Supplemental First-Round Picks
34. Mariners (Ibanez)
35. Blue Jays (A.J. Burnett, A, to Yankees)
36. Brewers (Sabathia)
37. Angels (Rodriguez)
38. Reds (Jeremy Affeldt, B, to Giants)
Second-Round Changes
49. Pirates (for failure to sign 2008 second-rounder Tanner Scheppers)
63. Blue Jays (from Yankees for Burnett)
Third-Round Changes
76. Yankees (for failure to sign 2008 second-rounder Scott Bittle)
Supplemental Third-Round Picks
101. Astros (for failure to sign 2008 third-rounder Chase Davidson)
Remaining Compensation Free Agents
Ari: Juan Cruz (A), Orlando Hudson (A), Brandon Lyon (B).
Bos: Jason Varitek (A), Paul Byrd (B).
CWS: Orlando Cabrera (A).
Col: Brian Fuentes (A).
KC: Mark Grudzielanek (B).
LAA: Mark Teixeira (A), Jon Garland (B).
LAD: Derek Lowe (A), Manny Ramirez (A).
Mil: Ben Sheets (A), Brian Shouse (B).
Min: Dennys Reyes (B).
NYM: Oliver Perez (A).
Tex: Milton Bradley (B).

• Steven Strasburg has been lights-out in preseason outings for San Diego State, sitting 97-100 in one recent outing with a plus-plus curveball. One scouting director told me that Strasburg's delivery was cleaner and that he was in better shape than when he saw the pitcher last summer.

FTN wrote:

• Steven Strasburg has been lights-out in preseason outings for San Diego State, sitting 97-100 in one recent outing with a plus-plus curveball. One scouting director told me that Strasburg's delivery was cleaner and that he was in better shape than when he saw the pitcher last summer.

How will the Nationals screw this one up?

Obviously he does some things well, I mean he throws 99 mph with great control. However, there are enough red flags that I believe he's a major injury risk. That does not mean he will absolutely get hurt, just that he's more likely to other people. Without taking him to ASMI (American Sports Medicine Institute) labs and getting specific joint load data, no one can say for sure.



Conclusion:

While I think it's likely Strasburg will eventually be scarred by a surgeon's blade, right now I would advise the Nats to still take him first next June. He's so good, historically good, that his level of talent is very rare. There isn't a Joe Mauer or Mark Teixeira in this draft to compete for the No. 1 spot. So I'd grab Strasburg, hand him a giant sack with a money sign on it -- after I lose a fiddle contest with Scott Boras -- let him dominate for a couple years then turn him into my Herschal Walker. Despite being "injury-prone", Mark Prior has managed 650+ innings, Kerry Wood over 1,200, A.J. Burnett 1,300+, and Ben Sheets over 1,400. Can you imagine the haul if Chicago would have traded Prior in 2004? Besides, maybe Strasburg really is a once-in-a-generation freak who can handle extra stress.

thephan wrote:Does the CBA deal with the draft rights to a player? I think MLB need to insist on some kind of rights to a player for several years if the player goes to play professionally rather then work things out with the drafting team. The back end mess is if the rights term is three years, and the player goes and hides out for a year or two, unless the compensation pick is eliminated. Maybe there is a trade of rights clause too after the first year.

I think that the current economy takes care of players not signing, but the ever more common trend to sit out a year and look for a payday with who you want has started to get ugly.

kruker wrote:Interesting write-up on SS. Argues that Strasburg is second to David Price in the short term "best college pitcher ever" category.

Strasburg

Obviously he does some things well, I mean he throws 99 mph with great control. However, there are enough red flags that I believe he's a major injury risk. That does not mean he will absolutely get hurt, just that he's more likely to other people. Without taking him to ASMI (American Sports Medicine Institute) labs and getting specific joint load data, no one can say for sure.



Conclusion:

While I think it's likely Strasburg will eventually be scarred by a surgeon's blade, right now I would advise the Nats to still take him first next June. He's so good, historically good, that his level of talent is very rare. There isn't a Joe Mauer or Mark Teixeira in this draft to compete for the No. 1 spot. So I'd grab Strasburg, hand him a giant sack with a money sign on it -- after I lose a fiddle contest with Scott Boras -- let him dominate for a couple years then turn him into my Herschal Walker. Despite being "injury-prone", Mark Prior has managed 650+ innings, Kerry Wood over 1,200, A.J. Burnett 1,300+, and Ben Sheets over 1,400. Can you imagine the haul if Chicago would have traded Prior in 2004? Besides, maybe Strasburg really is a once-in-a-generation freak who can handle extra stress.

Background story on why he wasn't drafted out of HS

lethal wrote:What trend are you talking about? I bet you can't name a single player who was drafted by a team they did not want to play for, so they sat out a year and then went on to sign with a team of his own choosing. You can't because it is not allowed.

If a drafted player is not signed, he's thrown into the draft pool the following year. The team that did not sign him gets a comp pick provided that it is within the first 3 rounds.

lethal wrote:

thephan wrote:Does the CBA deal with the draft rights to a player? I think MLB need to insist on some kind of rights to a player for several years if the player goes to play professionally rather then work things out with the drafting team. The back end mess is if the rights term is three years, and the player goes and hides out for a year or two, unless the compensation pick is eliminated. Maybe there is a trade of rights clause too after the first year.

I think that the current economy takes care of players not signing, but the ever more common trend to sit out a year and look for a payday with who you want has started to get ugly.

What trend are you talking about? I bet you can't name a single player who was drafted by a team they did not want to play for, so they sat out a year and then went on to sign with a team of his own choosing. You can't because it is not allowed.

If a drafted player is not signed, he's thrown into the draft pool the following year. The team that did not sign him gets a comp pick provided that it is within the first 3 rounds.

steagles wrote:

lethal wrote:

thephan wrote:Does the CBA deal with the draft rights to a player? I think MLB need to insist on some kind of rights to a player for several years if the player goes to play professionally rather then work things out with the drafting team. The back end mess is if the rights term is three years, and the player goes and hides out for a year or two, unless the compensation pick is eliminated. Maybe there is a trade of rights clause too after the first year.

I think that the current economy takes care of players not signing, but the ever more common trend to sit out a year and look for a payday with who you want has started to get ugly.

What trend are you talking about? I bet you can't name a single player who was drafted by a team they did not want to play for, so they sat out a year and then went on to sign with a team of his own choosing. You can't because it is not allowed.

If a drafted player is not signed, he's thrown into the draft pool the following year. The team that did not sign him gets a comp pick provided that it is within the first 3 rounds.

well, there was bryan morris and jordan walden, who both sat out a year so as to make more money/choose where they'd play. hochevar did something similar, as did aaron crow.

Strasburg's fastball lit up the radar guns. While a couple of scouts had him at 100 in the first inning, his gas was sitting at 96-99 from the windup and 93-96 from the stretch all afternoon. His curveball, which is more of a tight-rotation slurve than a 12-to-6 drop, was 79-81, a few mph below his normal 81-84 range according to a scout who has followed him closely. Strasburg's breaking ball didn't have as much depth as you might like, especially when he released it away from his body, but it is an effective companion to his heater.

If Strasburg's fastball is a "plus plus" or a 75/80 on the 20-80 scale that scouts use, his curveball was more like "solid average" or a 55 on Friday. He experienced occasional problems in landing his front foot correctly, causing him to be a bit off balance when throwing his slurve.

Once the game began, Strasburg did not disappoint. His first six fastballs registered 98-99-98-98-99-98. Strasburg mixed in his wicked 81-82 mph slurve, which when coupled with his fastball can be described as blatantly unfair. To his credit, Strasburg maintains his stuff as a game proceeds, touching 97 and 98 in the fifth inning while maintaining his 81-82 breaking ball.

For scouts, Mark Prior remains the gold standard for college righthanded pitching prospects. Blessed with a perfect frame, excellent mechanics, pinpoint control and a phenomenal arm, Prior was the second selection in the 2001 draft, eventually signing with the Chicago Cubs for a major league contract that guaranteed him $10.5 million.

Comparisons between Strasburg and Prior are natural and inevitable. However, there are some subtle differences between the two. Both have ideal builds and once in a decade arms, but Prior's mechanics and command were noticeably more refined and polished at a similar stage.

For any pitcher at any level, command and mechanics are flip sides of the same coin. Prior's textbook mechanics gave him precise control. Strasburg's delivery fundamentals are not yet at a comparable level, and his command suffers as a result.

As two examples, Prior's arm slot was a high three-quarters; Strasburg's is three quarters to low three quarters, and varies more than did Prior's. Prior's finish was perfectly balanced. Strasburg will occasionally land on a stiff front leg and tumble to his left, or employ a quick hop at his delivery finish, a sign of a loss of balance.

Both possessed explosive high 90's fastballs, but their curves differ. Prior's breaking ball was more of a true curve, with distinct two-plane break and a diagonal tilt. Strasburg's hammer is more of a slurve, starting at a hitter's thighs, then swerving sharply down and sideways to shin level