I believe 1% of what Randarino says.

karn is a better source at this point.

FTN wrote:I believe 1% of what Randarino says.

karn is a better source at this point.

Selling karn short

FTN wrote:I believe 1% of what Randarino says.

karn is a better source at this point.

karn at 1% is better than a lot of these guys at 10%

oh im long on karn. i just didnt give a percentage.

Rather than signing Sabathia, Lowe, Burnett, Teixeira, etc., the Yankees have decided it will be simpler and more cost effective to buy 4 or 5 select teams.

Smoltz is holding out to see what the Braves do before he decides to stay or move on

today =

Bakestar wrote:

jerseyhoya wrote:If Manny goes to the Nats, I might injure myself from laughing.

And I'd give Jessica Biel another phone call...

Tell her I said "hi," and that I'm still hoping she does another movie as a lady vampire with revealing clothing.

JFLNYC wrote:Rather than signing Sabathia, Lowe, Burnett, Teixeira, etc., the Yankees have decided it will be simpler and more cost effective to buy 4 or 5 select teams.

Seriously, they are talking about a $150M contract for CC. How much would it cost to buy the Florida Marlins, and thus control Dan Uggla, Hanley Ramirez, and a cast of thousands?

I realize MLB rules wouldn't allow this, but it's an interesting thought question.

Shore wrote:

JFLNYC wrote:

Shore wrote:So we'll bid against no one but Moyer and his agent, and give him 2 years. He was fan-$#@!-tastic this year, but he won't be this year, and he'll be the 1500th-best option for 2010. I'd rather have James Moyer pitching in 2010.

January 4, 2007:

Shore wrote:Oh, and Jamie Moyer... he's very old. The beginning of this decade, he was only mildly old, and pitched well. The midlle of this decade, he was old, and pitched meh. Now, he's ancient, and Shore predicts a 5.85 ERA.

Since that time Moyer is 30-19 4.37.

Yeah, he's old. But he's a freak and I wouldn't bet against him (no disrespect to James).

He had a great year. But the year before, he had a 5.01 ERA. He's not a freak. His ERA's the last 5 years are 5.21, 4.28, 4.30, 5.01, and 3.71, and I'm supposed to believe the 3.71 is predictive?

I disagree with this. Moyer is a freak in my view. He just doesn't have a comparable pitcher in all of baseball history. According to BP's similarity index explaination a guy with a score of around 50 has a "commonn typology" and a guy with a score of 20 or lower is "historically unusual." Moyer's score is 4. He only has 5 guys on his comp list. Two knuckle ballers, Satchel Page, Tommy John and Nolan Ryan (whose similarity score is only 8).

None of the above guys really is similar to Moyer at all really. He was 34-51 and only had an ERA + better than 85 once when he was in his 20s. He has been 82-60 in his 40s with four of six seasons at 98 or better. His ERA + over the last three years are 98; 104; 92; and 118. There has not been a pitcher in history like him in my view.

The top three pitchers in the B-R comp list at age 45 have similarity scores of 808; 806 and 806 which are really low. The three guys are Tommy John, Jack Quinn and Ted Lyons.

John was a very good pitcher when he waas in his 20s and at some point he had that surgery that was named after him. John wasn't much good when he was in his 40s. He only had one season in which he threw more than 70 innings and had an ERA + over 100.

Ancient Jack Quin is interseting. He pitched very well in the big leagues until he was 48. But he was a spit baller who pitched from 1909 to 1933 and doesn't compare with Moyer.

Sunday Teddy Lyons was a Hall of Fame pitche who was a very fine hurler for a bunch of bad Chicago White Sox teams until 1942. Lyons is famous for being a Sunday pitcher. He made 22-24 starts per year at the long tail end of his career pitching on Sundays. He was finished at the age of 41 except for 5 starts in 1946. He's not really anything like moyer either. There hasn't ben a "Sunday pitcher" in the big leagues since Lyons retired.

Moyer has been written off many times during his career. Perhaps more so than any other starting pitcher ever. Reading through his BP blurbs is pretty facinating as you read things like "the end is near" (from 2001); "Despite a good season, he's not a safe bet" (1997); "He can pitch another 3 or 4 years." (1999): "I expect him to be on life support by the end of his contract (in 2002) (Quoted from the 2000 comments).

Moyer was written off when he was in his 20s. He was written off when he gave up all those home runs in 2004. He was written off when he had that horrible road split in 2005. He was a fly ball pitcher but now he's more of a ground ball pitcher. He had a couple of years of declining K rates but he's snapped back to his norm the last two season.

Moyer might be all done. But it's really hard to predict. He is a freak. There has been no pitcher in MLB history antything like him. His 2007 was interesting in that when he was good he was very good but when he was bad he was like the girl with the curl. He was the same in 2008 but he was mostly good. He was written off before then playoffs last season because of his bad 2nd half ERA but he pitched great vs. Colorado. He had two bad starts in the post season and was written off but he came back with another great start.

This is a long post and maybe no one wants to read it. But it was really fun to look all this stuff up and write it.

Something is happening. MLBTR won't load for me.

CalvinBall wrote:Something is happening. MLBTR won't load for me.

yep - CRAZY!! latest headline is . . .

Cards Made Offer To Felipe Lopez

Braves plan on signing like 4 different pitchers

There's a lot of action on Abreu amongst NL central teams. Cubs, Cardinals and Astros are all in. He'll probably have to take a 5-6 mil cut from last year to get anything done even though he was his usually good self. The sleeper here is Tampa who if they had a hole it was their revolving door in Rf

philliesphhan wrote:Braves plan on signing like 4 different pitchers

Which would make Smoltz happy. 'Cept they then wouldn't have a spot for him!

Dear Ruben,

please don't sign Emil Brown. He's terrible. Thanks.

Signed,
CFP

Peavy to Atlanta is starting to smell that's how dead it is. Padres want him out of the NL for certain

Emil Brown is a non-rumor for Philly. He's an AL player and Texas seems likely

Mets and Nats are both very in on Bradley

(As an aside, that's who I'd like to see in LF)

Why do you just keep making things up?