FTN wrote:I think most teams with winning records are better against crap teams. Crap teams have crappy records for a reason

Exactly. Here are teams records against NL teams with winning records:

Cubs 32-23
Florida 30-26
Mets 28-25
Brewers 30-28
Cards 30-30
Dodgers 26-29
Astros 29-32
Diamondbacks 22-27
Phillies 25-32

While the Phillies are the worst they were 21-21 a month ago. Since then they are 4-11 against teams with winning records and 8-3 against teams with losing records. Over the same period the Mets are 7-8 against teams with winning records and 8-4 against teams with losing records. If two of the Phillies had beaten the Mets on July 23 and 24 the Phillies would be 6-9 against winning teams and the Mets 5-10. The difference is that small. The Phillies are in a slump and it's been more pronounced against good teams. The difference between them and other teams is small.

phillies are 1-0 in their previous 1 game

1 wrote:phillies are 1-0 in their previous 1 game

And 2-0 by Pythagorean third order win formula, BABIP, FIP thing.

We are a team built on PITCHING and DEFENSE. 1-0, 2-1, that is OUR KIND OF GAME. I don't even WANT to see a high scoring game-that's NOT how we roll. WE'RE the type of team that keeps it CLOSE, and does JUST ENOUGH to win, the type of team that RELISHES a traditional pitchers' duel, doesn't PANIC when things get tight, and uses CAPITAL LETTERS for EMphasis.

DANG SON WE GON' PITCH

who needs offense, right?

Wagner could be done for the year. If he is, I think its an even money bet for the division. Their bullpen is incredibly bad. They have like 100 blown saves this year. No Wagner = lots of late leads squandered.

FTN wrote:Wagner could be done for the year. If he is, I think its an even money bet for the division. Their bullpen is incredibly bad. They have like 100 blown saves this year. No Wagner = lots of late leads squandered.

we're two games out excluding this mets/pirates game today. two games out isn't an even money bet if we were trying to catch the marlins. and a closer being worth 2 games in a 38-game span? so wagner is like an 8-9 win player in your book?

No you're right. It doesn't change anything. Wagner is just another pitcher. Its likely that some AAA fodder will replace Wagner's spot on the roster with an ERA+ of 179. The Mets won the division.

FTN wrote:No you're right. It doesn't change anything. Wagner is just another pitcher. Its likely that some AAA fodder will replace Wagner's spot on the roster with an ERA+ of 179. The Mets won the division.

just saying it's not an even money bet for any team to catch any above-average team to catch any other above-average team from 2 games behind with 38 to go. if you disagree, go to tradesports
http://tradesports.com/aav2/trading/tra ... ired=false
and put your money where your mouse is.

Plug this into your formula

Sanchez: 2.461 WXRL
Wagner: 1.465 WXRL
Smith: 0.883 WXRL
Sosa: 0.551 WXRL
Schoenweis: 0.390 WXRL
Feliciano: 0.100 WXRL
Kunz: -0.138 WXRL
Heilman: -0.345 WXRL

The Mets just lost their 2nd most important reliever, based on WXRL. You can gloss over this and site any number of pieces of complex math you want. But this is a big deal. "Its even money" is a phrase that maybe shouldn't have been taken literally. But the Mets have an impossibly large 2 game lead, as well as a bullpen ERA of 4.28, 25th best in the league, and that includes Wagner's great season. Their best "relief prospect" Eddie Kunz got knocked around a bit and sent back to the minors. They are replacing Wagner with Luis Ayala on the roster. He of the 5.77 ERA, 1.47 WHIP and -1.198 WXRL

FTN wrote:Wagner: 1.465 WXRLThey are replacing Wagner with Luis Ayala -1.198 WXRL

that's not rocket science. about 2.663 games over a full season, so in 38 games, about 1/2 a game difference.

"Its even money" is a phrase that maybe shouldn't have been taken literally.

Sure enough. I took it literally, since that's how I have heard the expression. Good to know we don't disagree then.

My point was that a 2 game lead isn't the end of the world, which is kind of the message you're portraying. We're down 2, we have a great bullpen, the Mets have a shambolic bullpen and they are relying on Fernando Tatis and Robinson Cancel. I like our chances, EVEN MONEY BABY.

This is the positivity thread.

i never said two games is the end of the world. it's just a matter of it being about 15% lower than it would be if the teams were even.

1 game back in the loss column

1 wrote:1 game back in the loss column

6% chance of making the playoffs

I want to see Brett Myers pitch in the Little League World Series. Not only because he has the mental and emotional makeup for it, but also so I can see the 91 mph = MLB MPH 115 mph graphic

I used to very much love the in-depth statistical analysis of baseball.

I'm starting to hate it. Not because it's wrong or misleading, but because it renders things unenjoyable.

The loss of Wagner could cost them nothing or it could help them or it cost them 5 games because they lose 5 games in the last 38 that they otherwise would have won but their scrubeenie bullpen blows them all.

The formulas can't tell me either way what will happen.

Trent Steele wrote:I used to very much love the in-depth statistical analysis of baseball.

I'm starting to hate it. Not because it's wrong or misleading, but because it renders things unenjoyable.

The loss of Wagner could cost them nothing or it could help them or it cost them 5 games because they lose 5 games in the last 38 that they otherwise would have won but their scrubeenie bullpen blows them all.

The formulas can't tell me either way what will happen.

exactly-- at this point, with 38 games left for the phils and 37 for the mets, it's all a matter of chance and statistics don't help you predict much. each game in the standings is huge, and anybody who is in the thick of things could pull it off. after 38 games this year, the marlins were a few games into first place; the outcome of 38 games is very random. stats don't need to make it more or less enjoyable. the loss of wagner is a good thing. it's exciting. watching the mets try to hold a one-run lead in the 9th is more exciting without wagner in the game and hopefully they get stuck with a few of those. finding out that it has about a 50% chance of ever actually affecting an outcome doesn't really matter. it will be exciting if it does.

Fuck POSITIVITY!


AND FUCK THIS TEAM!