ek wrote:I don't understand how the Phillies lost one game and panic sets in. really strange

Well, you are talking about Philadelphia, the "curse of Billy Penn," the Murphy's Law assumptions that pervade thinking about our teams, etc.

I might be prone to some panic if the Phillies lose again tonight, especially if the Mets and Brewers also win.

I don't think most of us are panicking. I think we were, reasonably, expecting a win last night, what with Hamels pitching, and a 13-2 record against the Braves, a lot of momentum.

More to the point, objectively, the margin for error is now considerably smaller than it was yesterday. Yesterday, we could afford to lose and still control our own destiny. We no longer have that luxury. I also think the possibility of some nasty weather is making everyone a little more edgy than they would be otherwise.

jerseyhoya wrote:you're just being irrational because you're a phan

Is there any other way to be a fan?

In all seriousness, though, I really do see the Brewers sweeping the Pirates this week. Baseball is all about hot and cold streaks; the Brewers were about as cold as you can get for two and a half weeks there, but they got a good win last night and have two more with the crowd behind them against a bad team. The timing is right.

In addition, I don't know about the rest of the Mets week, but I'm confident they're going to beat the snot out of Zambrano tonight. I think it's a mistake for the Cubs to throw him at all.

And finally, it's exactly because of that ebb-and-flow, hot-and-cold nature of baseball that I'm a little worried about my Phils right now, and why a win tonight is SO important. For 11 days, the Phillies could do no wrong, practically; in addition to having Howard hot, they got lucky a lot. That can't continue, and any loss can be the beginning of one of the "down" periods when things stop going your way. Look at what I wrote two weeks ago, while trying to suggest that there was no reason to run the white flag up the pole because the Phillies had dropped to 2 back with 19 to play because they hadn't swept the Mets:

mozartpc27 wrote:But, it just seems to me that all teams that are not "very memorably good" (i.e., at least 100 wins, and maybe more like 105) go through good and bad streaks. The Mets have recently played quite well; the Phillies a little less so. Which team will be hot for the final 19? Which team might go ice cold for the final 19? Maybe both? Maybe neither? I feel like it's a crap shoot, that the Phillies odds here are really not much off 50/50.

Seasons are made up of good and bad streaks. These streaks are, as often as not, attributable to general streaks of the batting order: is a team hitting or isn't it? The Phillies have been very hot, but two nights ago they won after being shut down for most of the game, thanks largely to a throwing error that opened the flood gates, and last night they lost because they didn't hit Mike Hampton at all. Is this just a minor blip, or the beginning of a downward trend in the bats after a prolonged good streak?

This is why I'm nervous.

who is even pitching for the braves tonight? phils win, mets lose and brewers loses. all is right with the world.

mozartpc27 wrote:

jerseyhoya wrote:you're just being irrational because you're a phan

Is there any other way to be a fan?

In all seriousness, though, I really do see the Brewers sweeping the Pirates this week. Baseball is all about hot and cold streaks; the Brewers were about as cold as you can get for two and a half weeks there, but they got a good win last night and have two more with the crowd behind them against a bad team. The timing is right.

In addition, I don't know about the rest of the Mets week, but I'm confident they're going to beat the snot out of Zambrano tonight. I think it's a mistake for the Cubs to throw him at all.

And finally, it's exactly because of that ebb-and-flow, hot-and-cold nature of baseball that I'm a little worried about my Phils right now, and why a win tonight is SO important. For 11 days, the Phillies could do no wrong, practically; in addition to having Howard hot, they got lucky a lot. That can't continue, and any loss can be the beginning of one of the "down" periods when things stop going your way. Look at what I wrote two weeks ago, while trying to suggest that there was no reason to run the white flag up the pole because the Phillies had dropped to 2 back with 19 to play because they hadn't swept the Mets:

mozartpc27 wrote:But, it just seems to me that all teams that are not "very memorably good" (i.e., at least 100 wins, and maybe more like 105) go through good and bad streaks. The Mets have recently played quite well; the Phillies a little less so. Which team will be hot for the final 19? Which team might go ice cold for the final 19? Maybe both? Maybe neither? I feel like it's a crap shoot, that the Phillies odds here are really not much off 50/50.

Seasons are made up of good and bad streaks. These streaks are, as often as not, attributable to general streaks of the batting order: is a team hitting or isn't it? The Phillies have been very hot, but two nights ago they won after being shut down for most of the game, thanks largely to a throwing error that opened the flood gates, and last night they lost because they didn't hit Mike Hampton at all. Is this just a minor blip, or the beginning of a downward trend in the bats after a prolonged good streak?

This is why I'm nervous.

Your post is indeed the crux of the biscuit.

I remember the 1976 season when the Phils won something for the first time since 1950. They led wire to wire, won 101 games and finished 9 games in front of the Bucs. They led the division by double digits in August. But they had a little swoon in September and led by only 3 on September 17th.

The national media was talking about 1964 like it was yesterday. And Dick Allen was on the '76 team so he was interviewed all the time about it. (He said: "Gee whiz" a lot in those interviews. I thought that was cool).

Anyway, part of being a fan of this club is worrying about everything until they actually clinch. Because they clinch things so rarely.

Cy Jo Jo goes 6.2 IP tonight, 1 ER, 4 H, 2 BB, 8 K

FTN wrote:Cy Jo Jo goes 6.2 IP tonight, 1 ER, 4 H, 2 BB, 8 K

Gutsy. He'll get a long look in 2009. He's always had the stuff, it's just a matter of putting it all together. He knows how to throw, but it finally looks like he's figuring out how to pitch.

Etc., etc.

TenuredVulture wrote:I don't think most of us are panicking. I think we were, reasonably, expecting a win last night, what with Hamels pitching, and a 13-2 record against the Braves, a lot of momentum.

More to the point, objectively, the margin for error is now considerably smaller than it was yesterday. Yesterday, we could afford to lose and still control our own destiny. We no longer have that luxury. I also think the possibility of some nasty weather is making everyone a little more edgy than they would be otherwise.

That's exactly it. Will feel much better after the W tonite regardless of what the Mets/Brewers do. Just keep on winning.

My plan is to get a good buzz tonight and let the cards fall where they may. And if we're .5 ahead tomorrow, I'll just do it all over again

mozartpc27 wrote:

philliesphhan wrote:

mozartpc27 wrote:

CalvinBall wrote:They still have to face Zambrano, Harden, Volstad, and Nolasco. None of those games are going to be that easy to win. I say they go 3-2 the rest of the way. That means the Phillies just have to get two more wins.

Marlins have quit.

So, it's going to be super tough for us versus the Braves and Nats (two teams that SU-uck, by the way) but you've just decided the Marlins have quit? Based on what exactly?

I suspect the Marlins have quit because since dropping 2/3 from Phillies, they are 0-3 against the Reds and Nats.

I suspect the Phillies HAVE to win all 4 of their remaining games because it's the only way to be assured of the division, unless and until the Mets or Brewers lose again. As it stands right now, they HAVE to win.

I suspect the Phillies are making me nervous and worried that they will struggle because --- lest any of us forget --- these are the $#@!-ing Phillies we are talking about here. The 1 WS win in 103 tries Phillies. Also, baseball ain't like football. Just because a superior team is playing an inferior opponent at home and needs to win doesn't make the chances of that team's victory 80-90%. It makes it, at best, 60% (at best). There's too much luck involved.

Seriously, man, you are out of your mind. Yes, the Marlins are 0-3 against the Nats and Reds. You know why? It's the Nats and Reds! Why the hell would they play hard against them? They're mailing it in until they can stick it to the assholes from NY. Why do you think the Marlins won't play well against the Mets but the Nationals will play well against us? The Marlins are at least a decent baseball team.

And saying they're the fucking Phillies is so stupid. ONE OF THE TEAMS WE'RE AHEAD OF IS THE BREWERS. The Brewers never win anything. EVER. If the Brewers lose ONE game out of their next five, we only have to win 2. Think about that for a moment. To overtake even the Mets, the Brewers have to play 2 games better than them with only 5 games to go. The Mets go 3-2 and they have to be absolutely perfect as just losing one game forces a one game playoff. Compare that to us now, they're 2.5 games behind us, and there's only five games left for them. We only have four. If we go 2-2, they have to be PERFECT. What does that get them? A tie!

I understand you're worried but Jesus Christ, man, this is not the usual situation. The Phillies have blown it in the past because they were in the Brewers spot, not their current spot. Usually, we have to win everything and other teams have to lose.

ek wrote:if that happens, I really will be out

so you're waffling right now

philliesphhan wrote:

mozartpc27 wrote:

philliesphhan wrote:

mozartpc27 wrote:

CalvinBall wrote:They still have to face Zambrano, Harden, Volstad, and Nolasco. None of those games are going to be that easy to win. I say they go 3-2 the rest of the way. That means the Phillies just have to get two more wins.

Marlins have quit.

So, it's going to be super tough for us versus the Braves and Nats (two teams that SU-uck, by the way) but you've just decided the Marlins have quit? Based on what exactly?

I suspect the Marlins have quit because since dropping 2/3 from Phillies, they are 0-3 against the Reds and Nats.

I suspect the Phillies HAVE to win all 4 of their remaining games because it's the only way to be assured of the division, unless and until the Mets or Brewers lose again. As it stands right now, they HAVE to win.

I suspect the Phillies are making me nervous and worried that they will struggle because --- lest any of us forget --- these are the $#@!-ing Phillies we are talking about here. The 1 WS win in 103 tries Phillies. Also, baseball ain't like football. Just because a superior team is playing an inferior opponent at home and needs to win doesn't make the chances of that team's victory 80-90%. It makes it, at best, 60% (at best). There's too much luck involved.

Seriously, man, you are out of your mind. Yes, the Marlins are 0-3 against the Nats and Reds. You know why? It's the Nats and Reds! Why the hell would they play hard against them? They're mailing it in until they can stick it to the asshat from NY. Why do you think the Marlins won't play well against the Mets but the Nationals will play well against us? The Marlins are at least a decent baseball team.

And saying they're the $#@! Phillies is so stupid. ONE OF THE TEAMS WE'RE AHEAD OF IS THE BREWERS. The Brewers never win anything. EVER. If the Brewers lose ONE game out of their next five, we only have to win 2. Think about that for a moment. To overtake even the Mets, the Brewers have to play 2 games better than them with only 5 games to go. The Mets go 3-2 and they have to be absolutely perfect as just losing one game forces a one game playoff. Compare that to us now, they're 2.5 games behind us, and there's only five games left for them. We only have four. If we go 2-2, they have to be PERFECT. What does that get them? A tie!

I understand you're worried but Jesus Christ, man, this is not the usual situation. The Phillies have blown it in the past because they were in the Brewers spot, not their current spot. Usually, we have to win everything and other teams have to lose.

You'll just have to excuse my mental scars. Another thing (besides the 2005 Astros) I never got over was seeing the Phillies in the WC lead by half a game with 7 to play, and 6 to play for Dodgers (i.e., with a game in hand). Of course, the Dodgers go 7-0, including the whole back-to-back-to-back-to-back HR for the first time ever in MLB in the bottom of the ninth to win a game; the Phillies? 3-4, including that stupid mother fuck-ing game in the rain in Washington.

I hope, I cautiously hope, but I don't believe until it's already done, in which case it's not belief anymore. The curse of the atheist, I guess.

But you believe that the Marlins have quit and the Brewers will sweep the Pirates?

mozartpc27 wrote:You'll just have to excuse my mental scars. Another thing (besides the 2005 Astros) I never got over was seeing the Phillies in the WC lead by half a game with 7 to play

Thinking our lead now is anything close to that is your problem, I think. We got that lead that day and immediately lost it.

ek wrote:

ReadingPhilly wrote:who is even pitching for the braves tonight? phils win, mets lose and brewers loses. all is right with the world.

Jo Jo Reyes of the 3-11 record with a 5.50 ERA and whom Randy Miller said on WIP today that even people in his own clubhouse thinks he'll get clobbered tonight. he doesn't listen to their coaches

Vicente Padilla lite!

mozartpc27 wrote:

jerseyhoya wrote:you're just being irrational because you're a phan

Is there any other way to be a fan?

In all seriousness, though, I really do see the Brewers sweeping the Pirates this week. Baseball is all about hot and cold streaks; the Brewers were about as cold as you can get for two and a half weeks there, but they got a good win last night and have two more with the crowd behind them against a bad team. The timing is right.

In addition, I don't know about the rest of the Mets week, but I'm confident they're going to beat the snot out of Zambrano tonight. I think it's a mistake for the Cubs to throw him at all.

And finally, it's exactly because of that ebb-and-flow, hot-and-cold nature of baseball that I'm a little worried about my Phils right now, and why a win tonight is SO important. For 11 days, the Phillies could do no wrong, practically; in addition to having Howard hot, they got lucky a lot. That can't continue, and any loss can be the beginning of one of the "down" periods when things stop going your way. Look at what I wrote two weeks ago, while trying to suggest that there was no reason to run the white flag up the pole because the Phillies had dropped to 2 back with 19 to play because they hadn't swept the Mets:

mozartpc27 wrote:But, it just seems to me that all teams that are not "very memorably good" (i.e., at least 100 wins, and maybe more like 105) go through good and bad streaks. The Mets have recently played quite well; the Phillies a little less so. Which team will be hot for the final 19? Which team might go ice cold for the final 19? Maybe both? Maybe neither? I feel like it's a crap shoot, that the Phillies odds here are really not much off 50/50.

Seasons are made up of good and bad streaks. These streaks are, as often as not, attributable to general streaks of the batting order: is a team hitting or isn't it? The Phillies have been very hot, but two nights ago they won after being shut down for most of the game, thanks largely to a throwing error that opened the flood gates, and last night they lost because they didn't hit Mike Hampton at all. Is this just a minor blip, or the beginning of a downward trend in the bats after a prolonged good streak?

This is why I'm nervous.

With the Mets moments from victory, would anyone like to suggest I'm crazy now?

Baseball, on a day to day level, isn't so much about who is good and who is bad, as it is about who is hot and who is not. When you build a team, you're trying to build one that will be hot more often than it is not; once you get down to the level of a handful of games, the idea that anything is 99.8% sure, as the Phillies playoff chances supposedly were two days ago, is patently absurd.

There is too much left to chance in baseball to say that an overall outcome (like one team making the playoffs), dependent on a small handful of other individual outcomes, is ever, EVER more than 70%.

I hate people who try to make me believe something is a sure thing when I KNOW DAMN WELL it ain't, fancy computer models be damned.

And yes, I know exactly who I sound like, and I don't care. i'm mad as hell.

Also: The Phillies don't have a big game pitcher. Cole. Myers. CHOKERS. FUCK.

Leadoff game-winning triple doesn't score. hmm

mozartpc27 wrote:With the Mets moments from victory

I'd like to claim this was a reverse jinx, but I was blndly pissed.

I think your negative energy hurt the Phillies