To hear Conlin and Hagen, we just picked up Schmidt in his prime.

Houshphandzadeh wrote:To hear Conlin and Hagen, we just picked up Schmidt in his prime.

Checkmate

Houshphandzadeh wrote:To hear Conlin and Hagen, we just picked up Schmidt in his prime.

yeah that was comical

Maybe Schmidt in his prime was an overstatement, but they were dead serious that Rowand's numbers just got replaced, no problem.

Houshphandzadeh wrote:Maybe Schmidt in his prime was an overstatement, but they were dead serious that Rowand's numbers just got replaced, no problem.

Rowand's numbers from last year have not been replaced, but his numbers for this year and the next few years of his career have been. It's all coming down to the pitching, folks.

Houshphandzadeh wrote:Maybe Schmidt in his prime was an overstatement, but they were dead serious that Rowand's numbers just got replaced, no problem.

Why are you guys amazed by this? You should be surprised if a member of the media actually understands performance. All they look at are home runs and RBIs. Rowand was 27 and 89. In CBP and this lineup, Feliz could easily be 24 and 85. They see that and his defense and they think they have Mike Schmidt. The media isn't smart.

My prediction for Feliz in 2008 is .309/.451/.760. In 2006 Rowand was .321/.425/.746. Now that they've switched ballparks Feliz could have a better OPS than Rowand.

Was there an exclamation point in my post?

i'm curious who is going to play 3B for SF and what kind of salary he is at. SF has been criticized for some questionable moves and we end up w/ one of their castoffs... why?

As of now it's Rich Aurilia with Kevin Frandsen backing up

Laexile wrote:

Houshphandzadeh wrote:Maybe Schmidt in his prime was an overstatement, but they were dead serious that Rowand's numbers just got replaced, no problem.

Why are you guys amazed by this? You should be surprised if a member of the media actually understands performance. All they look at are home runs and RBIs. Rowand was 27 and 89. In CBP and this lineup, Feliz could easily be 24 and 85. They see that and his defense and they think they have Mike Schmidt. The media isn't smart.

My prediction for Feliz in 2008 is .309/.451/.760. In 2006 Rowand was .321/.425/.746. Now that they've switched ballparks Feliz could have a better OPS than Rowand.

.309/.451 for Feliz is very optimistic. The park effect difference on OBP and SLG in Philly vs in San Fran are about 4 and 7 points respectively, I think.

Bill James had him in SF as .292/.425
Chone had him in SF at .289/.413
Marcel had him in SF at .290/.411
ZIPS had him in SF at .282/.382

Adjust those to CBP and you probably get OBPs between .290 and .300 and LG between .390 and .435. And ZIPS is probably the best projection system. We'll see what PECOTA says. Those may come out tomorrow or at least this week, I think.

MattS wrote:

Laexile wrote:

Houshphandzadeh wrote:Maybe Schmidt in his prime was an overstatement, but they were dead serious that Rowand's numbers just got replaced, no problem.

Why are you guys amazed by this? You should be surprised if a member of the media actually understands performance. All they look at are home runs and RBIs. Rowand was 27 and 89. In CBP and this lineup, Feliz could easily be 24 and 85. They see that and his defense and they think they have Mike Schmidt. The media isn't smart.

My prediction for Feliz in 2008 is .309/.451/.760. In 2006 Rowand was .321/.425/.746. Now that they've switched ballparks Feliz could have a better OPS than Rowand.

.309/.451 for Feliz is very optimistic. The park effect difference on OBP and SLG in Philly vs in San Fran are about 4 and 7 points respectively, I think.

Bill James had him in SF as .292/.425
Chone had him in SF at .289/.413
Marcel had him in SF at .290/.411
ZIPS had him in SF at .282/.382

Adjust those to CBP and you probably get OBPs between .290 and .300 and LG between .390 and .435. And ZIPS is probably the best projection system. We'll see what PECOTA says. Those may come out tomorrow or at least this week, I think.

Optimistic? Average.

Based on a rough average of the last three years here's what Feliz would get:
576 ABs, 143 H, 31 D, 4T, 21 HR, 33 BB .288/.426/.714

I'm sssuming he does that rate on the road and has the CBP bump. Last year players hit 1.3% better at home, hit 7% less doubles, 12% less triples, and 45% more home runs. Phillie hitters had a 19% bump in walks. That would give him:
570 ABs, 143 H, 30 D, 4T, 26 HR, 39 BB .297/.454/.752

My initial calculations was optimistic on the OBP, but still a big improvement.

Feliz's career, adjusted to 2007 Phillies park/league context:

Code: Select all

Year Ag   G    AB    R    H   2B  3B   HR  RBI   BB   SO   SB   Avg   OBP   SLG   OPS   RC  ActG
+-------+----+-----+----+----+----+---+----+----+----+----+----+-----+-----+-----+-----+----+----+
2000 25    8     8    1    3    0   0    0    0    0    1    0  .375  .375  .375  .750    1    8
2001 26   94   225   26   55   10   1    8   25   11   50    2  .244  .282  .404  .686   25   94
2002 27   67   149   16   40    4   1    2   15    6   27    0  .268  .295  .349  .644   16   67
2003 28   96   240   34   62   10   3   17   53   11   53    2  .258  .291  .537  .828   37   95
2004 29  144   507   76  143   34   3   23   88   24   85    5  .282  .312  .497  .809   79  144
2005 30  156   577   76  150   32   4   21   89   40  102    0  .260  .306  .438  .744   78  156
2006 31  161   610   79  151   36   5   23  103   34  113    1  .248  .286  .436  .722   76  160
2007 32  150   561   64  145   29   2   21   75   30   70    2  .258  .296  .430  .726   71  150
+-------+----+-----+----+----+----+---+----+----+----+----+----+-----+-----+-----+-----+----+----+
Totals   876  2877  372  749  155  19  115  448  156  501   12  .260  .297  .447  .744  383  874
+-------+----+-----+----+----+----+---+----+----+----+----+----+-----+-----+-----+-----+----+----+
/162 G         532   69  139   29   4   21   83   29   93    2  .260  .297  .447  .744   71
+-------+----+-----+----+----+----+---+----+----+----+----+----+-----+-----+-----+-----+----+----+
Year Ag   G    AB    R    H   2B  3B   HR  RBI   BB   SO   SB   Avg   OBP   SLG   OPS   RC  ActG


That's 9 points of OBP and 4 points of SLG over his actual career.


It warms my heart that the 10 most similar players to him through age 32 got a grand total of about 3300 AB, or 330 per player, over the remainder of their careers. And we've got him for 2 plus an option. Nice.

i think a 33-year old is unlikely to match his three-year average.

and i dont really think you can assume his home numbers dont matter in doing that projection either. if i understand correctly, i think that's what you did?

feliz clearly has perfromed poorly at home. thats either (1) a tendency he has that might not have to do with the park (in which case the CBP home bump is not a reasonable assumption), (2) a coincidence that he has happened to have some of his better games on the road (in which case you need to lower his road numbers and then do an upwards adjustment for CBP from a lower baseline), or (3) an abnormally large park effect on him (in which case your assumption is accurate.

i don't see why (3) would be true, though i do not know the dimensions of the park he played in before.

Shore wrote:Feliz's career, adjusted to 2007 Phillies park/league context:

Code: Select all

Year Ag   G    AB    R    H   2B  3B   HR  RBI   BB   SO   SB   Avg   OBP   SLG   OPS   RC  ActG
+-------+----+-----+----+----+----+---+----+----+----+----+----+-----+-----+-----+-----+----+----+
2000 25    8     8    1    3    0   0    0    0    0    1    0  .375  .375  .375  .750    1    8
2001 26   94   225   26   55   10   1    8   25   11   50    2  .244  .282  .404  .686   25   94
2002 27   67   149   16   40    4   1    2   15    6   27    0  .268  .295  .349  .644   16   67
2003 28   96   240   34   62   10   3   17   53   11   53    2  .258  .291  .537  .828   37   95
2004 29  144   507   76  143   34   3   23   88   24   85    5  .282  .312  .497  .809   79  144
2005 30  156   577   76  150   32   4   21   89   40  102    0  .260  .306  .438  .744   78  156
2006 31  161   610   79  151   36   5   23  103   34  113    1  .248  .286  .436  .722   76  160
2007 32  150   561   64  145   29   2   21   75   30   70    2  .258  .296  .430  .726   71  150
+-------+----+-----+----+----+----+---+----+----+----+----+----+-----+-----+-----+-----+----+----+
Totals   876  2877  372  749  155  19  115  448  156  501   12  .260  .297  .447  .744  383  874
+-------+----+-----+----+----+----+---+----+----+----+----+----+-----+-----+-----+-----+----+----+
/162 G         532   69  139   29   4   21   83   29   93    2  .260  .297  .447  .744   71
+-------+----+-----+----+----+----+---+----+----+----+----+----+-----+-----+-----+-----+----+----+
Year Ag   G    AB    R    H   2B  3B   HR  RBI   BB   SO   SB   Avg   OBP   SLG   OPS   RC  ActG


That's 9 points of OBP and 4 points of SLG over his actual career.


It warms my heart that the 10 most similar players to him through age 32 got a grand total of about 3300 AB, or 330 per player, over the remainder of their careers. And we've got him for 2 plus an option. Nice.

I'm just curious why you project his HR numbers so low (only 1 more per year) when considering both park factors? I would think they would be closer to 24-26.

Phight On! wrote:I'm just curious why you project his HR numbers so low (only 1 more per year) when considering both park factors? I would think they would be closer to 24-26.

Not me doing it; it's baseball-reference.com's Neutralize Stats feature... described here.

Basically, you choose the year / league / team context, and the tool converts seasons... it's based on run scoring in each environment, and increases the RC/G to match new environment, but assumes same distribution of D/T/HR. Gets the offense level correct, but probably isn't great at individual components of offense, in extreme situations.

MattS wrote:i think a 33-year old is unlikely to match his three-year average.

and i dont really think you can assume his home numbers dont matter in doing that projection either. if i understand correctly, i think that's what you did?

feliz clearly has perfromed poorly at home. thats either (1) a tendency he has that might not have to do with the park (in which case the CBP home bump is not a reasonable assumption), (2) a coincidence that he has happened to have some of his better games on the road (in which case you need to lower his road numbers and then do an upwards adjustment for CBP from a lower baseline), or (3) an abnormally large park effect on him (in which case your assumption is accurate.

i don't see why (3) would be true, though i do not know the dimensions of the park he played in before.

I have no idea what you're saying here. From 2005-2007 Feliz had a .716 OPS at home and .706 on the road. He didn't clearly preform poorly at home. He's been relatively even. I took his overall stats as his road stats since that's pretty much what we can expect on the road. Then I gave the CBP bump. The home run increase between CBP and the road has been dramatic. So it's reasonable to assume it would be for him too.

Of course anything can happen. David Bell had the worst season of his career in his first year with the Phils and then had his best year. Wes Helms hit a lot worse. Jayson Werth was dramatically better than he'd been before, although a lot of that happened on the road.

Feliz has been remarkably consistent the last three years. It's not unreasonable to expect that as a base line.

It warms my heart that the 10 most similar players to him through age 32 got a grand total of about 3300 AB, or 330 per player, over the remainder of their careers. And we've got him for 2 plus an option. Nice.

Three of those players didn't play after they were 32. Feliz will. We have no idea what they would've done after 32. Thus, they aren't applicable. The other seven were a mixed bag. The two most similar players had a dip at 33 and then a big bump at 34. The next three most similar players pretty much bombed. The last similar player, Glenallen Hill had his best three seasons at 33-35.

What this tells me is that Feliz could produce similar stats, but that the possibility that he'll get better is less than he'll get worse. He's certainly not a sure thing.

But what were the alternatives. Helms is only a year younger and coming off a steep decline in a season far worse than Feliz. He appears to be in more of a decline than Feliz, a guy who has been consistent. Greg Dobbs is three years younger, but he hasn't had an established baseline. As such we have no idea what he is.

Given the CBP bump and the fluctuations in Dobbs and Feliz I'd guess that there is a 35-40% chance that Feliz will be better than a Dobbs/Helms platoon offensively. And then there's the defense.

Laexile wrote:I have no idea what you're saying here. From 2005-2007 Feliz had a .716 OPS at home and .706 on the road. He didn't clearly preform poorly at home.

A .716 OPS at home is clearly performing poorly.

Shore wrote:

Phight On! wrote:I'm just curious why you project his HR numbers so low (only 1 more per year) when considering both park factors? I would think they would be closer to 24-26.

Not me doing it; it's baseball-reference.com's Neutralize Stats feature... described here.

Basically, you choose the year / league / team context, and the tool converts seasons... it's based on run scoring in each environment, and increases the RC/G to match new environment, but assumes same distribution of D/T/HR. Gets the offense level correct, but probably isn't great at individual components of offense, in extreme situations.

That is a pretty awesome feature that I never knew existed. Basically it puts everybody on a level playing field just as the name suggests. I think it recognizes that Pac Bell suppresses home runs but doesn't pick up the boost that CBP would provide. Likewise everyboody on the Phillies would lose HRs because CBP is a bandbox.

Laexile wrote:

It warms my heart that the 10 most similar players to him through age 32 got a grand total of about 3300 AB, or 330 per player, over the remainder of their careers. And we've got him for 2 plus an option. Nice.

Three of those players didn't play after they were 32. Feliz will. We have no idea what they would've done after 32. Thus, they aren't applicable.

Ridiculous. They're perfectly applicable; 3 guys with careers very similar to Feliz were considered "done" at 32. Meanwhile, we signed him to a 2+1 deal. It illustrates how poor of a hitter he is - 30% of his top 10 comparables never got the opportunity to play after age 32.

The other seven were a mixed bag. The two most similar players had a dip at 33 and then a big bump at 34.

That would be the 1st and 4th most similar. 2 and 3 got sent home.

The next three most similar players pretty much bombed. The last similar player, Glenallen Hill had his best three seasons at 33-35.

What this tells me is that Feliz could produce similar stats, but that the possibility that he'll get better is less than he'll get worse. He's certainly not a sure thing.

But what were the alternatives. Helms is only a year younger and coming off a steep decline in a season far worse than Feliz. He appears to be in more of a decline than Feliz, a guy who has been consistent.

I hate Helms, but "far worse" than Feliz? .246 / .297 / .368 to .253 / .290 / .418... Helms was less than 3 homers "worse" than Feliz, and given his history, he's likely to gain those back.

Greg Dobbs is three years younger, but he hasn't had an established baseline. As such we have no idea what he is.

That's a convenient approach to take. By that logic, if we had David Wright in AAA, signing Feliz would still be a good move, as Wright would not have an established baseline, and would be an unknown.

Dobbs has 1857 minor league PA - which are, as they always have been, very illustrative - and 596 major league PA. In the minors, he pretty much got about 400 AB, hit .300, walked 30 times, struck out 60, and hit 10 homers.... .300 / .360 / .460. In the majors, that probably translates to something like .270 / .320 / .410; his actual major league stats are .266 / .314 / .410. I'd say we have a pretty good baseline.

Given the CBP bump and the fluctuations in Dobbs and Feliz I'd guess that there is a 35-40% chance that Feliz will be better than a Dobbs/Helms platoon offensively. And then there's the defense.

35-40%? In the last 3 years, Feliz has an OPS+ of 85, 79, and 81; OPS+ is Park-Adjusted, so this is apples to apples. Helms has 111, 149, and 68, while Dobbs has a 96 last year, his only extended PT. In 2005 and 2006, Helms by himself was VASTLY superior to Feliz, and in 2007, Helms+Dobbs was superior. Given that they are both younger, will always have the platoon advantage, have outhit him for 3 straight years, how do you arrive at a 35-40% chance that Feliz will be better?

Wishcasting, that's how.

It's a bad decision, if the only options were stand pat and sign Feliz. Since those are NOT the only options, it's a terrible decision.

Phight On! wrote:

Shore wrote:

Phight On! wrote:I'm just curious why you project his HR numbers so low (only 1 more per year) when considering both park factors? I would think they would be closer to 24-26.

Not me doing it; it's baseball-reference.com's Neutralize Stats feature... described here.

Basically, you choose the year / league / team context, and the tool converts seasons... it's based on run scoring in each environment, and increases the RC/G to match new environment, but assumes same distribution of D/T/HR. Gets the offense level correct, but probably isn't great at individual components of offense, in extreme situations.

That is a pretty awesome feature that I never knew existed. Basically it puts everybody on a level playing field just as the name suggests. I think it recognizes that Pac Bell suppresses home runs but doesn't pick up the boost that CBP would provide. Likewise everyboody on the Phillies would lose HRs because CBP is a bandbox.

I agree; they've added a ton of cool features in the last couple of years. In the game log list, you can click the first and last games of a particular date range, and it will total that range for you, and even provide a permalink to that subset. For example, here's Pedro Feliz over the Giants last 60 games last year.