Good. Gives us some flexibility in the OF.

Rollins
Victorino
Utley
Howard
Burrell
Jenkins
Dobbs
Ruiz

though I'd like to see Ruiz/Dobbs swapped, I'm guessing we'll see it that way.

and

Rollins
Victorino
Utley
Burrell
Howard
Werth
Helms
Ruiz

is what I'm hoping for against LH, but they probably won't drop RyHo to 5th.

We'll score some runs, that's for sure.

If it's really 2/13 that's a good deal in this market.

Here's the article:

Today's TMJ4 Sports Anchor Lance Allan has learned that former Brewer OF Geoff Jenkins has a new Christmas gift...an all but done deal with the Philadelphia Phillies.

The former Brewer is expected to take a physical this morning and barring any unforseen snags, will be introduced at a press conference in Philly later today.

Jenkins is likely to receive a 2-year deal with an option year worth around $13 million dollars.

I'm not ecstatic about this signing, but I think it's a good move, in light of all the options out there. A Werth / Jenkins platoon could very well outproduce Rowand next summer, giving us a better outfield than we would have had if Rowand stayed. Now if we could only upgrade 3B and add a decent SP we'd be ready to repeat as NL East champs.

2 for 13 isn't that bad. I expected much worse.

Now it's time to address 3B and find another legit starter.

I'm sure if you went back and looked at old Trent Steele postings, I affirmatively advocated the signing of Geoff Jenkins. I still do. I love this signing.

Over the next two years, the Phillies will pay somewhere less than $16-18 million total for very solid RF production and an improved bench. This is so much smarter than signing Rowand to a 4 year 50 million deal or signing Torii Hunter to some bananans deal.

I think Gillick has done a fine job this offseason. If he somehow pulls a decent starting pitcher out of his arse, it's an A+ to me.

Trent Steele wrote:I think Gillick has done a fine job this offseason. If he somehow pulls a decent starting pitcher out of his arse, it's an A+ to me.

Is it possible he's found his way around this new world of baseball and that I should be rooting for him to stick around, all things considered?

Grotewold wrote:

Trent Steele wrote:I think Gillick has done a fine job this offseason. If he somehow pulls a decent starting pitcher out of his arse, it's an A+ to me.

Is it possible he's found his way around this new world of baseball and that I should be rooting for him to stick around, all things considered?

I don't know. I've done my serious share of Gillick bashing, particularly last year. But this offseason, he targeted the right players and was either outbid or never had a chance (Lowell, Schilling, Wolf), got rid of dead crap (Nunez, Barajas), refused to overpay on a long term deal for players who were marginally better than what he had (Rowand, Lohse), signed a player that in my opinion fits perfectly (Jenkins), did some decent bargain shopping (Snelling) and made a trade (Lidge) that accomplished the single most important thing for this team in 2008 (moving Myers back into the rotation).

He still needs a SP and he overpaid for Romero, but otherwise a very solid offseason.

Really like the Jenkins/Werth platoon especially at the cost. Jenkins may actually be our LF in '09 when you consider this deal.

I think I'm setting the bar too high to expect both a 3B & starting pitching acquisition. We'll score us some runs though!

I am mixed on Jenkins. I like him, but fear he may be just about at the end of the line. Not a bad risk though and Werth/Jenkins is likely to outperform Rowand. I'd still like to see them go after Ensberg.

espn.com:

The Philadelphia Phillies and free agent outfielder Geoff Jenkins have reached preliminary agreement on a two-year deal believed to be worth about $13 million, a baseball source told ESPN.com.

The agreement includes a third year vesting option based on plate appearances that could increase Jenkins' total package to $20 million, the source said. The deal could be announced as early as Thursday.

Silly for Jenkins to agree on a vesting plate appearance option. Maybe the Phils wouldn't agree on just a player option.

For 6.5MM on the year, this is a very solid pickup, IMO. The key is going to be to keep him away from LHP at all costs.

I tried to project him recently, and I came to the realization that there is no way to project his total stats without deciding how much he'll play against lefties, so I did those projections separately.

.217/.280/.391 vs LHP
.281/.347/.500 vs RHP

If he gets 25 PAs against lefties (based mostly on looking through the league and seeing how infrequently guys like him COULD be played against lefties, and 400 PAs against righties, that's a line of .277/.343/.494. That would be good for a VORP of about 16.2. That's solid for 6.5MM.

Another good thing about this is that it seems to put their payroll squarely over 95MM, indicating that the Phillies have (gasp) raised payroll!!!!

MattS wrote:For 6.5MM on the year, this is a very solid pickup, IMO. The key is going to be to keep him away from LHP at all costs.

I tried to project him recently, and I came to the realization that there is no way to project his total stats without deciding how much he'll play against lefties, so I did those projections separately.

.217/.280/.391 vs LHP
.281/.347/.500 vs RHP

If he gets 25 PAs against lefties (based mostly on looking through the league and seeing how infrequently guys like him COULD be played against lefties, and 400 PAs against righties, that's a line of .277/.343/.494. That would be good for a VORP of about 16.2. That's solid for 6.5MM.

Another good thing about this is that it seems to put their payroll squarely over 95MM, indicating that the Phillies have (gasp) raised payroll!!!!

Hmmm...I'd like to see better numbers against righties. I certainly think he could post an OPS over .900 against in CBP assuming he isn't falling off a cliff in general. His OBP would likely be closer to .370 I think.

seke2 approves

especially if werth continues to produce against LHP, this could be a nice platoon.

well, if it has the seke seal of approval then I have to go along with it

MattS wrote:For 6.5MM on the year, this is a very solid pickup, IMO. The key is going to be to keep him away from LHP at all costs.

I tried to project him recently, and I came to the realization that there is no way to project his total stats without deciding how much he'll play against lefties, so I did those projections separately.

.217/.280/.391 vs LHP
.281/.347/.500 vs RHP

If he gets 25 PAs against lefties (based mostly on looking through the league and seeing how infrequently guys like him COULD be played against lefties, and 400 PAs against righties, that's a line of .277/.343/.494. That would be good for a VORP of about 16.2. That's solid for 6.5MM.

Another good thing about this is that it seems to put their payroll squarely over 95MM, indicating that the Phillies have (gasp) raised payroll!!!!

I agree. My figures (linked below) estimate the Phils payroll for the 25-man roster to now be at $97MM+ (or $99MM+ with performance bonuses).

I stated in another thread that I'd like to see Jenkins signed for 2 years at 11 million or 2 years at 13 at the most if that's what it took to get him to sign. Good deal and looking forward to see what a platoon of Jenkins/Werth can contribute. Jenkins will also be a nice option to pinch hit off the bench. I was once a huge fan of Jenkins but have cooled in recent years but still thought it would be a good move to sign him. I'm very happy that he will be on the Phillies next year.

Disco Stu wrote:

MattS wrote:For 6.5MM on the year, this is a very solid pickup, IMO. The key is going to be to keep him away from LHP at all costs.

I tried to project him recently, and I came to the realization that there is no way to project his total stats without deciding how much he'll play against lefties, so I did those projections separately.

.217/.280/.391 vs LHP
.281/.347/.500 vs RHP

If he gets 25 PAs against lefties (based mostly on looking through the league and seeing how infrequently guys like him COULD be played against lefties, and 400 PAs against righties, that's a line of .277/.343/.494. That would be good for a VORP of about 16.2. That's solid for 6.5MM.

Another good thing about this is that it seems to put their payroll squarely over 95MM, indicating that the Phillies have (gasp) raised payroll!!!!

Hmmm...I'd like to see better numbers against righties. I certainly think he could post an OPS over .900 against in CBP assuming he isn't falling off a cliff in general. His OBP would likely be closer to .370 I think.

I hope so. His walk rate and BABIP against righties really did fall in 2007. That could be a coincidence, but it's not a great sign for a 33 year old.

WALK RATE
vs LHP:
2005: 7.1%
2006: 10.3%
2007: 4.2%
weighted (0.2, 0.3, 0.5) average: 6.6%

vs RHP:
2005: 9.9%
2006: 10.0%
2007: 7.4%
weighted average: 8.7%

STRIKEOUT PER AT-BAT
vs LHP:
2005: 30.6%
2006: 43.9%
2007: 29.2%
weighted average: 33.9%

vs RHP:
2005: 23.6%
2006: 22.3%
2007: 27.3%
weighted average: 25.1%

BABIP:
vs LHP:
2005: .337
2006: .208
2007: .256
weighted average: .257

vs RHP:
2005: .358
2006: .361
2007: .313
weighted average: .336

His Cumulative Flyball and HR/Flyball rates (don't have the splits)
2005: 34.1%, 18.1%
2006: 33.7%, 14.1%
2007: 37.5%, 18.3%

I think there are definitely some signs of decline, but he should be able to maintain his power against RHP, especially in CBP. I think his BABIP and his walk rate should settle low enough that .370 OBP seems optimistic. But this is just an estimate. I'll post with some other projection systems numbers in a few minutes.