Phillies Sign Geoff Jenkins

by **The Dude** » Thu Dec 20, 2007 10:37:14

I've been trying to look, but what kind of money is Cameron looking for?

My FG articles · by **MattS** » Thu Dec 20, 2007 10:39:17

ZIPS:

.259/.339/.449

Bill James:

.262/.341/.462

Chone:

.261/.335/.447

Ron Shandler

.266/.327/.471

Lots of pretty disappointing consensus there. You should probably add about .004 to each component of those to adjust for CBP, so those would average around: .266/.339/.462.

PECOTA will probably be out in a month or so, and we'll see what they have to say. They will probably have a worse projection for him, since PECOTA tends to be particularly low on early 30s players who suddenly dropped off. It generally tends to assume that is their new level. Abreu had an awful projection for 2007, for example, after a year where his power numbers declined in his early 30s (2006).

by **Shore** » Thu Dec 20, 2007 10:43:31

MattS wrote:ZIPS:

.259/.339/.449

Bill James:

.262/.341/.462

Chone:

.261/.335/.447

Ron Shandler

.266/.327/.471

Lots of pretty disappointing consensus there. You should probably add about .004 to each component of those to adjust for CBP, so those would average around: .266/.339/.462.

PECOTA will probably be out in a month or so, and we'll see what they have to say. They will probably have a worse projection for him, since PECOTA tends to be particularly low on early 30s players who suddenly dropped off. It generally tends to assume that is their new level. Abreu had an awful projection for 2007, for example, after a year where his power numbers declined in his early 30s (2006).

Most of the projections likely assume a LH/RH breakdown that's more consistent with his career usage than what we're likely to use him for - somewhere between 15 and 30 percent, rather than the (I hope) 10% or less he'll get here. It'll slightly reduce his counting stats, but jack his rate stats up by 10-15 points, I'd bet.

My FG articles · by **MattS** » Thu Dec 20, 2007 10:47:15

I was hoping for the same thing. He is BELOW replacement level vs LHP, so there is no reason to keep him in there vs them. My biggest concern would be situations where Werth has replaced Burrell late in a game, and then they bring in a lefty reliever to face Jenkins. I guess in those situations, they can bring Helms in off the bench (since Dobbs would probably be starting if Jenkins were), and shift Dobbs to rightfield. That might not help if Dobbs is on deck anyway, though. It's a shame Snelling is left-handed.

by **Shore** » Thu Dec 20, 2007 10:50:39

MattS wrote:I was hoping for the same thing. He is BELOW replacement level vs LHP, so there is no reason to keep him in there vs them. My biggest concern would be situations where Werth has replaced Burrell late in a game, and then they bring in a lefty reliever to face Jenkins. I guess in those situations, they can bring Helms in off the bench (since Dobbs would probably be starting if Jenkins were), and shift Dobbs to rightfield. That might not help if Dobbs is on deck anyway, though. It's a shame Snelling is left-handed.

Maybe it's time Burrell stays in until the bottom of the 9th, or if we have a huge lead. Maybe if he gets the 100+ AB he misses on the defensive replacement plan, he'll drive in 125, and catch a couple of breaks from the morons.

by **JFLNYC** » Thu Dec 20, 2007 10:54:18

Shore wrote:
MattS wrote:I was hoping for the same thing. He is BELOW replacement level vs LHP, so there is no reason to keep him in there vs them. My biggest concern would be situations where Werth has replaced Burrell late in a game, and then they bring in a lefty reliever to face Jenkins. I guess in those situations, they can bring Helms in off the bench (since Dobbs would probably be starting if Jenkins were), and shift Dobbs to rightfield. That might not help if Dobbs is on deck anyway, though. It's a shame Snelling is left-handed.

Maybe it's time Burrell stays in until the bottom of the 9th, or if we have a huge lead. Maybe if he gets the 100+ AB he misses on the defensive replacement plan, he'll drive in 125, and catch a couple of breaks from the morons.

Hear! Hear!

by **Bakestar** » Thu Dec 20, 2007 10:57:01

Shore wrote:
MattS wrote:I was hoping for the same thing. He is BELOW replacement level vs LHP, so there is no reason to keep him in there vs them. My biggest concern would be situations where Werth has replaced Burrell late in a game, and then they bring in a lefty reliever to face Jenkins. I guess in those situations, they can bring Helms in off the bench (since Dobbs would probably be starting if Jenkins were), and shift Dobbs to rightfield. That might not help if Dobbs is on deck anyway, though. It's a shame Snelling is left-handed.

Maybe it's time Burrell stays in until the bottom of the 9th, or if we have a huge lead. Maybe if he gets the 100+ AB he misses on the defensive replacement plan, he'll drive in 125, and catch a couple of breaks from the morons.

On the contrary, he's also been praised for "striking out less" which is true in an accumulated numerical sense, and I believe his rate is better too.

by **SideshowBob** » Thu Dec 20, 2007 10:57:30

I'm pretty happy with this move. Sure, it's a lot of money for the expected production, but given the market it's not that bad. And I think the value of good paltoons is often not recognized by clubs -- it really helps to strengthen the bench in addition to having a platoon advantage in the regular lineup. I think the current OF lineup is actually quite nice, even if unheralded.

I'm much happier spending the money on Jenkins than on re-signing Rowand for 5 years.

Hopefully, they put some focus on 3B now, though I suspect they'll ignore it. And I hope any "solutions" to the SP aren't Eaton v2.0.

by **Rococo4** » Thu Dec 20, 2007 11:29:15

I dont like it. I never liked Jenkins.

by **hoya** » Thu Dec 20, 2007 11:32:33

Works for me. Decent value and we needed someone to platoon with Werth.

Little bit of a risk because of his age/bad year, but it's not like there were any studs that were going to sign for cheap.

by **philliesr98** » Thu Dec 20, 2007 12:32:06

jenkins is a streaky player

i remember you could pick him up in fantasy two years ago, would tear it up for a week, then do ABSOLUTELY NOTHING for 2......

by **phuturephillies** » Thu Dec 20, 2007 12:34:35

by **lethal** » Thu Dec 20, 2007 12:35:09

2/13 is a decent deal. Better than the 2/18 or 3 year deals that were mentioned as possibilities.

by **philliesr98** » Thu Dec 20, 2007 12:39:17

phuturephillies wrote::|

could just be his was the best of the waiver wire for like a two year period it seemed like in yahoo, not anymore though....

by **Squire** » Thu Dec 20, 2007 12:43:37

I am hearing that the option is a vesting option for year 3 at a salary of 7M so until I see what the markers are for vesting the option I'm not sure whether I really think this is a 2 year deal at 13 or a 3 year deal at 20.

SQUIRE

by **philliesr98** » Thu Dec 20, 2007 12:45:51

I don't like any incentive laden option with jenkins, he could fall off the face any year, so lets say he plays himself into a third year.... then BOMBS, I dont like that, I hope we have control of the option year, not Geoffy....

by **Trent Steele** » Thu Dec 20, 2007 12:59:32

Squire wrote:I am hearing that the option is a vesting option for year 3 at a salary of 7M so until I see what the markers are for vesting the option I'm not sure whether I really think this is a 2 year deal at 13 or a 3 year deal at 20.

SQUIRE

Jenkins makes a total of 925 plate appearances in the 2008-2009 seasons or 525 plate appearances in 2009, it would trigger a $7.5 million vesting option for 2010. If the agreement fails to vest, he and the Phillies have a mutual option for the third year.

by **lethal** » Thu Dec 20, 2007 13:05:09

So basically he'd heave to not get injured and be a starter on a full time basis in 09 (replacing Burrell or Werth) to vest that option.

by **EndlessSummer** » Thu Dec 20, 2007 13:06:13

Here's the professional scouting report of my old college roommate, who is as giant a Brewers fan as there is in this world:

"He is a deceptively good fielder, has a good hose, hits righties well, and looks like Favre. Those are the positives. As for the other side, he hits major league lefties about as well as you or me. He is not afraid to take huge swings at pitches and miss them by 3 feet. He is actually a pretty good litmus test as to whether your team's manager is a moron. If said manager ever allows Jenks to have even 1 AB against a lefty, you have your answer."

by 1 » Thu Dec 20, 2007 13:11:20

EndlessSummer wrote:Here's the professional scouting report of my old college roommate, who is as giant a Brewers fan as there is in this world:

"He is a deceptively good fielder, has a good hose, hits righties well, and looks like Favre. Those are the positives. As for the other side, he hits major league lefties about as well as you or me. He is not afraid to take huge swings at pitches and miss them by 3 feet. He is actually a pretty good litmus test as to whether your team's manager is a moron. If said manager ever allows Jenks to have even 1 AB against a lefty, you have your answer."

LMAO: GOMER ON JANKINS:

He uh gon hit errrrr he hits dem lefty well errr!!!

(*30000)

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Phillies Sign Geoff Jenkins