Biden in Plain Sight: Politics

Re: Biden in Plain Sight: Politics

Unread postby The Savior » Thu Sep 24, 2020 21:19:29

Augustus wrote:I think it’s going to be even uglier this time. He’s going to get super personal with Joe to try and fluster him. Hunter, drug use accusations, whatever he thinks it takes.


And Biden remaining composed and using that to show him, trump, as unhinged will be all that’s needed. Biden is reaching out to Trump voters in these debates, IMO. Trumps brash nature plays to his core base not those looking for a reason to jump. Biden should easily play into that.

Biden should have no issue being prepared. Trumps attacks are easy to predict.
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Re: Biden in Plain Sight: Politics

Unread postby Kman223 » Thu Sep 24, 2020 22:04:54

The Savior wrote:
Bucky wrote:truth of the matter is that we don't know what covid is going to look like anywhere on 11/3. And we even knew less when this path had to be chosen. This is by far the best option.


This. Hindsight isn’t 20/20.

Imagine if they didn’t take this path and the pandemic became significantly worse, and many people decided to NOT show up and vote.

Option A - no VBM, no virus outbreak, all done in person (good for Dems)
Option B - no VBM, virus outbreak, voters don’t show up (very bad for dems)
Option C - VBM, in person voting, risk of votes not all counting (ok for dems)

Sometimes, you play the odds to avoid the worst outcome. That’s what the dems did, and I think it will be fine overall. Not great, a challenge sure, but overall fine.


It has much less to do with the options you presented than it does the messaging behind their strategy. Of course a VBM system favors the Democrats, we are a populous that is largely democrat. But like others have said, the Dems are both terrible at messaging and in my opinion even worse at politics. The republicans steamroll them when it comes to politics. See the Supreme Court vacancy as your latest example.

You have to think big picture, what is the opponents strategy. Republicans knew early that it would be democrats pushing for mail in ballots because that’s the reasonable thing to do in a pandemic. Immediately they started to rail against that, with one purpose, to sow the seeds of doubt. Of course the democrats stay on message and say it’s safe and secure and blah blah blah, because that’s reasonable and any normal human would understand that. But we aren’t an electorate of normal humans. For whatever reason we are more willing to cling to the conspiracy than the truth. They’ve figured that out, that’s their game plan, and I’m worried it is going to work again.

Just look at how all of the people that were so against trump have stepped in line. It’s all about pushing their conservative agenda down our throats, securing a Supreme Court that can mandate that agenda for quite a period of time, and resting easy that their core values were entrenched. They don’t care who is at the top, they only cared about that. They are ruthless, they know that there’s hardly any accountability in a 24/7 news cycle, and they’ve completely taken advantage of that.

It’s like they are playing a video game with cheat codes, while the dems are reading the game manual to figure out the home screen.

Ridiculous.

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Re: Biden in Plain Sight: Politics

Unread postby momadance » Thu Sep 24, 2020 22:17:28

Second time today that Lindsey was on Fox begging for money. Hannity cuts him off.

https://twitter.com/Acyn/status/1309303 ... 29921?s=19

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Re: Biden in Plain Sight: Politics

Unread postby swishnicholson » Thu Sep 24, 2020 22:25:37

The Savior wrote:
Bucky wrote:truth of the matter is that we don't know what covid is going to look like anywhere on 11/3. And we even knew less when this path had to be chosen. This is by far the best option.


This. Hindsight isn’t 20/20.

Imagine if they didn’t take this path and the pandemic became significantly worse, and many people decided to NOT show up and vote.

Option A - no VBM, no virus outbreak, all done in person (good for Dems)
Option B - no VBM, virus outbreak, voters don’t show up (very bad for dems)
Option C - VBM, in person voting, risk of votes not all counting (ok for dems)

Sometimes, you play the odds to avoid the worst outcome. That’s what the dems did, and I think it will be fine overall. Not great, a challenge sure, but overall fine.


No Vote by Mail was never an option though. All states have a vote by mail procedure, and by all means it should have been widely promoted and opened up to all who felt unsafe casting a ballot in person. Part of my feeling is a little New Jersey-centric, of course. If I were to insist on voting in person my only options are to bring my mail-in ballot to a polling place (dumb) or cast a provisional ballot. So I won't do either, since my interest in casting a ballot in person is due to wanting to feel (and I do realize it's just a feeling ) that my ballot is more likely to be counted promptly. I don't think it ever had to be or should be either/or. If you get 30-50% doing mail-in ballots, conducting in person voting becomes that much easier anyway. Here that's not really a choice though, and i think a lot of people are going to struggle with in ways a lot greater than my simple annoyance, if only because if people have chosen a way of doing something they are farmore like to carry through. Here, there's not really a choice.
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Re: Biden in Plain Sight: Politics

Unread postby The Savior » Thu Sep 24, 2020 22:28:10

momadance wrote:Second time today that Lindsey was on Fox begging for money. Hannity cuts him off.

https://twitter.com/Acyn/status/1309303 ... 29921?s=19


Internal polls must be...bad
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Re: Biden in Plain Sight: Politics

Unread postby thephan » Thu Sep 24, 2020 22:29:02

momadance wrote:Second time today that Lindsey was on Fox begging for money. Hannity cuts him off.

https://twitter.com/Acyn/status/1309303 ... 29921?s=19


Rosie and barbie Streisand is killing Lindsey, it's a damn shame
yawn

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Re: Biden in Plain Sight: Politics

Unread postby The Savior » Thu Sep 24, 2020 22:32:26

swishnicholson wrote:
The Savior wrote:
Bucky wrote:truth of the matter is that we don't know what covid is going to look like anywhere on 11/3. And we even knew less when this path had to be chosen. This is by far the best option.


This. Hindsight isn’t 20/20.

Imagine if they didn’t take this path and the pandemic became significantly worse, and many people decided to NOT show up and vote.

Option A - no VBM, no virus outbreak, all done in person (good for Dems)
Option B - no VBM, virus outbreak, voters don’t show up (very bad for dems)
Option C - VBM, in person voting, risk of votes not all counting (ok for dems)

Sometimes, you play the odds to avoid the worst outcome. That’s what the dems did, and I think it will be fine overall. Not great, a challenge sure, but overall fine.


No Vote by Mail was never an option though. All states have a vote by mail procedure, and by all means it should have been widely promoted and opened up to all who felt unsafe casting a ballot in person. Part of my feeling is a little New Jersey-centric, of course. If I were to insist on voting in person my only options are to bring my mail-in ballot to a polling place (dumb) or cast a provisional ballot. So I won't do either, since my interest in casting a ballot in person is due to wanting to feel (and I do realize it's just a feeling ) that my ballot is more likely to be counted promptly. I don't think it ever had to be or should be either/or. If you get 30-50% doing mail-in ballots, conducting in person voting becomes that much easier anyway. Here that's not really a choice though, and i think a lot of people are going to struggle with in ways a lot greater than my simple annoyance, if only because if people have chosen a way of doing something they are farmore like to carry through. Here, there's not really a choice.


Wasn’t suggesting it wouldn’t be an option. The point is that you have to manage the outcomes. And in the Dems case, their voters viewed the pandemic MUCH differently than republicans. So, on average, they were more likely to err on the side of caution which in theory could mean not voting in person as the risk of death outweighed all else.

So, with that in mind and little federal plan to combat, it was impossible to know and more reasonable to think the outlook in the fall would be similar to if not worse. Thus, the Dems focuses on registering folks to VBM. Totally reasonable and hedged the work case downside risk (low turnout). And if the pandemic got worse and even republicans were hesitant despite being told by trump not to trust VBM and therefore none requested ballots, that’s a massive win-win.

You can litigate and contest which votes do/don’t qualify. You can’t can’t contest a vote that never was.
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Re: Biden in Plain Sight: Politics

Unread postby TenuredVulture » Thu Sep 24, 2020 23:31:06

Werthless wrote:I cherish every piece of Trump mail that reaches my mailbox. Burning money!

If the come with business reply envelops you an mail them back and it costs even mire money. Heck weigh them down while you’re at it.
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Re: Biden in Plain Sight: Politics

Unread postby TenuredVulture » Thu Sep 24, 2020 23:33:49

Wolfgang622 wrote:
threecount wrote:I did read another article though that Biden is all over the TV there with ads and Trump pulled out of all TV buys there...


If that is true, it can only be because the Trump campaign believes Ohio is a baked cake and in the bag for their candidate. He cannot lose Ohio and plausibly win the election, so pulling ad buys there as a concession would make absolutely no sense whatsoever.

The three recent polls show a (small) Biden lead so it’s tough to imagine it’s in the bag for trump.
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Re: Biden in Plain Sight: Politics

Unread postby philliesphhan » Fri Sep 25, 2020 00:07:52

I'm not sure I buy the "vote by mail lets the Rs attack the results"

They're going to do that either way. A few days before the election in 2016 Trump said it was fixed against him.
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Re: Biden in Plain Sight: Politics

Unread postby Monkeyboy » Fri Sep 25, 2020 01:18:18

Augustus wrote:I think it’s going to be even uglier this time. He’s going to get super personal with Joe to try and fluster him. Hunter, drug use accusations, whatever he thinks it takes.



Yeh, that's what I said too. I would not be surprised if he used the moment to reveal some kind of accusation against some Biden and maybe even have the evidence for it ready to be released on his website. I could totally see him saying something like, "We have found some interesting things, including an audio of FORMER VP Biden asking for a quid pro quo from the Ukraine. Go to Trump.com now and you can listen to the audio." It would send many people rushing to the website where he could have a fake recording and additional material. It would have the added effect of a lot of people missing the debate because they are going down a QAnon-like rabbit hole on his website.

I've said it several times, but the russians have been working on fake video and audio technology and Trump/McConnell has defunded the US equivalent program that was working to stay ahead of them.
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Re: Biden in Plain Sight: Politics

Unread postby Monkeyboy » Fri Sep 25, 2020 06:05:38

Hardly any polling out of SC. I'm surprised because Graham is so high profile and the Senate is in play. Maybe it wasn't expected to be this close and it wasn't budgeted? The last poll had Graham at +1.
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Re: Biden in Plain Sight: Politics

Unread postby thephan » Fri Sep 25, 2020 06:26:12

Trump said he sending out $200 cards to 33 million seniors before the election so that I can help them with their drug costs. Where is that $6,600,000,000 coming from? He tried to pull something like that with the pharmaceutical companies, that is when talks broke down with them.

Just another buy a vote scheme where he is trying to play a game to try to make the Democrats look bad when it doesn’t get through the funding requirements.
yawn

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Re: Biden in Plain Sight: Politics

Unread postby The Savior » Fri Sep 25, 2020 06:48:25

thephan wrote:Trump said he sending out $200 cards to 33 million seniors before the election so that I can help them with their drug costs. Where is that $6,600,000,000 coming from? He tried to pull something like that with the pharmaceutical companies, that is when talks broke down with them.

Just another buy a vote scheme where he is trying to play a game to try to make the Democrats look bad when it doesn’t get through the funding requirements.


Nancy won’t be letting that happen.
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Re: Biden in Plain Sight: Politics

Unread postby Slowhand » Fri Sep 25, 2020 09:01:13

$200? Boy, that’ll go a long way towards a senior’s medical costs.
How dare you interrupt my Lime Rickey!

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Re: Biden in Plain Sight: Politics

Unread postby traderdave » Fri Sep 25, 2020 09:27:57

Trump stinks of desperation. It is gonna be great when seniors take the $200 and still vote for Biden.

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Re: Biden in Plain Sight: Politics

Unread postby lethal » Fri Sep 25, 2020 09:28:48

thephan wrote:Mark Warnrer’s Campaign has been running ads that are more like PSAs. I guess his opposition is such a nonstarter that he’s not even really running campaign ads. I was actually floored when I found a debate on NBC with his competitor. I guess I was especially surprised because the moderators included Chuck Todd, but that makes sense because the NBC affiliate in DC is owned by the parent company, and what was Chuck doing on Wednesday night anyway.

I honestly couldn’t make it through the opening remarks since the guy running against Warner restating his positions on things that immediately fell into the flip-flop attack. I really wasn’t learning anything about the guy except that he is taking the old-school mad dog attack approach to politics.

I previously got something stuck on my door about him except that he went on and on about how he’s an outsider, after retiring from the military, where he worked with the Bush administration, and also where he got his masters degree and PhD in public administration. Sounds like a guy has been auditioning for the part for a long time really.

Warner’s lead is 52% to 39% with a 3.2% margin of error.


Polling in 2014 was about the same and Warner ended up winning by less than 1% (18K votes) and the Libertarian guy got 53K votes. I'm pretty confident about Warner, but based on his personal election history, he shouldn't take it lightly.

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Re: Biden in Plain Sight: Politics

Unread postby Werthless » Fri Sep 25, 2020 10:16:06

https://www.businessinsider.com/fox-new ... son-2020-9

Fox News won a court case by 'persuasively' arguing that no 'reasonable viewer' takes Tucker Carlson seriously

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Re: Biden in Plain Sight: Politics

Unread postby Phred » Fri Sep 25, 2020 10:19:12

Werthless wrote:https://www.businessinsider.com/fox-news-karen-mcdougal-case-tucker-carlson-2020-9

Fox News won a court case by 'persuasively' arguing that no 'reasonable viewer' takes Tucker Carlson seriously


Dems need to make a commercial about this or otherwise make it go viral.
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Re: Biden in Plain Sight: Politics

Unread postby traderdave » Fri Sep 25, 2020 10:25:16

More FB lunacy from a relative's page:

Image

Again, I don't know if these people actually believe this shit or if they are being deliberately obtuse.

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