CFP wrote:Trump's 4D chess on this is if Woodward had the quotes for this long, he would have shared them if there was actually a danger to the American people. So the pandemic is Woodward's fault it appears.

Donald J. Trump
@realDonaldTrump
·
1h
Bob Woodward had my quotes for many months. If he thought they were so bad or dangerous, why didn’t he immediately report them in an effort to save lives? Didn’t he have an obligation to do so? No, because he knew they were good and proper answers. Calm, no panic!

If you knew a serial killer was killing, why didn't you stop him? The blame for the killings lies at the feet of those who didn't stop the killer.

/Trump

Monkeyboy wrote:

CFP wrote:Trump's 4D chess on this is if Woodward had the quotes for this long, he would have shared them if there was actually a danger to the American people. So the pandemic is Woodward's fault it appears.

Donald J. Trump
@realDonaldTrump
·
1h
Bob Woodward had my quotes for many months. If he thought they were so bad or dangerous, why didn’t he immediately report them in an effort to save lives? Didn’t he have an obligation to do so? No, because he knew they were good and proper answers. Calm, no panic!

If you knew a serial killer was killing, why didn't you stop him? The blame for the killings lies at the feet of those who didn't stop the killer.

/Trump

A lot of people are jumping on Woodward for this very reason (which I'm sure is where Trump or his handlers got the idea to do so) and I think it's nuts. If you didn't realize Trump was downplaying the pandemic for political reasons in February and beyond then God help you. It's simply not new news. The only difference now is it's on the record.

Trump completely stole it from a far left talking point on Twitter yesterday and today.

Poll with Biden up barely in ME2 which could play a big role in a close election.

If Biden doesn't win ME-2, it would close a few of the more likely paths to victory, including the ones I mentioned in my prediction earlier. That's much worse election news than you might think could ever come out of Maine.

Monkeyboy wrote:If Biden doesn't win ME-2, it would close a few of the more likely paths to victory, including the ones I mentioned in my prediction earlier. That's much worse election news than you might think could ever come out of Maine.

Eh? It's the Trump part of the state. If he wins there one could assume he's cruising to victory.

Trump said everyone knew COVID was airborne in February so it's no big thing.

He won it last time in a close election. Most relevant scenario is Biden takes back PA and MI but Trump holds Wisconsin and ME2. That puts it 270-268 Trump. There is a small chance Dems could take the lead in state House delegations (currently 26-23-1), giving Biden the edge in case of 269-269.

thephan wrote:Trump said everyone knew COVID was airborne in February so it's no big thing.

And yet, we didn’t talk masks or mass produce them until like May

CalvinBall wrote:

Monkeyboy wrote:If Biden doesn't win ME-2, it would close a few of the more likely paths to victory, including the ones I mentioned in my prediction earlier. That's much worse election news than you might think could ever come out of Maine.

Eh? It's the Trump part of the state. If he wins there one could assume he's cruising to victory.

Biden winning ME-2 would open up several other paths to victory for Biden, not Trump. Sorry for my lack of specificity. I was referencing an earlier post.

Augustus wrote:He won it last time in a close election. Most relevant scenario is Biden takes back PA and MI but Trump holds Wisconsin and ME2. That puts it 270-268 Trump. There is a small chance Dems could take the lead in state House delegations (currently 26-23-1), giving Biden the edge in case of 269-269.

I'm thinking Biden wins AZ. If he does that and wins MN, PA, and MI, he'll be fine. AZ is pretty important because I don't trust the midwest.

Wonder if Biden could win the popular vote by 7 points and still lose the EC

I think it's possible. He's incredibly unpopular in many of the big states and he's targeted blue states for a variety of hateful acts. I really hope that's not the case. I'm buoyed by the stability of the polls. Trump hasn't been able to make a dent in Biden's lead people are either voting already or close to it.

Also, I don't think we've heard the worst of the whistleblower and woodward stuff. The dude is a monster and has no filter to hide it, particularly since his strokes or whatever the problem is.

Stay_Disappointed wrote:Wonder if Biden could win the popular vote by 7 points and still lose the EC

It's possible but a very small percentage chace. Saw a chart somewhere. Maybe someone even posted it here.

Uncle Milty wrote:

Stay_Disappointed wrote:Wonder if Biden could win the popular vote by 7 points and still lose the EC

It's possible but a very small percentage chace. Saw a chart somewhere. Maybe someone even posted it here.

I think Silver put it at like 1-2% with a margin that wide.

Looking for interpretation assistance. I was at 538 and saw a chart of which I was unsure of the conclusion. I pasted the link below. About 1/2 way down the page is a chart titled "How the Forecast Has Changed". When I click on "Popular Vote" it shows 52.8% for Biden and 45.9% for Trump. What I am wonder - is that concluding a 52.8% chance that Biden wins the popular vote or that he will win 52.8% of the popular vote? Thank you!

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/20 ... -forecast/

I believe it's a projection for share of popular vote based on information currently available. If you look right below it under "weird possibilities" Biden is 86% to win the popular vote.

Uncle Milty wrote:I believe it's a projection for share of popular vote based on information currently available. If you look right below it under "weird possibilities" Biden is 86% to win the popular vote.

correct. fun fact its only a 10% chance that trump wins a majority of votes. wonder if he'd be the first two term president to never get a majority. probably.

JUburton wrote:

Uncle Milty wrote:I believe it's a projection for share of popular vote based on information currently available. If you look right below it under "weird possibilities" Biden is 86% to win the popular vote.

correct. fun fact its only a 10% chance that trump wins a majority of votes. wonder if he'd be the first two term president to never get a majority. probably.

Bill Clinton

Barack Obama is the only Democrat who has gotten 50% of the vote nationally since Jimmy Carter (50.1%) in 1976

With 3rd party vote share so low this time, Biden seems at least somewhat likely to clear that