thephan wrote:DHS curated high confidence intelligence that Russia was planning to attack biden in his bid for the White House with accusations of mental incapacity. That briefing memo was tagged to be held for review by the acting head of DHS. This bulletin was created on the 7th of July, and Mr Wolf has not seen fit to review the material for release it would seem. Curious how that is.

The article mentions it, the term high confidence is not something that is used lightly.

https://abcnews.go.com/amp/Politics/dhs ... d=72747130

The politicization of the civil service has been going on for four years. This is nothing out of the norm for the Trump Admin.

Here are national polls all from today after the Morning Consult PA poll came out:

IBD/TIPP: Biden +8
CNN: Biden +8
Quinnipiac: Biden +10
Suffolk: Biden +5/+7 (with/without third parties)
Selzer & Co.: Biden +8

Quite the bounce for Trump!

I think they are all RV (not LV). Don't know how that impacts things, but if Joe Biden can win the popular vote by +7 he will win the electoral college. If he is only winning by 4 then navigating our broken system becomes trickier.

What if Trump wants to curtail mail-in voting not because more people will vote but because he needs people to vote at the machines because he knows that outside forces can hack them? So he downplays the virus and tanks the USPS so people lose confidence in that system and vote in person instead.

Don't believe the polls, lots of trump voters in the closet. Either ashamed to admit they'll vote for him or paranoid types that won't respond to polls.

jerseyhoya wrote:If the election was held today, there is something approaching zero doubt in my mind that Biden would win. I would wager $1000 to win $100.

Can things change, sure. But Trump is losing. Like, clearly losing.

To be fair, and I thought this too, this was how we felt 4 years ago days before the election.

jerseyhoya wrote:Cannot overstate if you are able to get Hillary -300 or whatever that's tremendous value.

I’m kicking myself in the ass for not getting trump at + money

heyeaglefn wrote:

jerseyhoya wrote:If the election was held today, there is something approaching zero doubt in my mind that Biden would win. I would wager $1000 to win $100.

Can things change, sure. But Trump is losing. Like, clearly losing.

To be fair, and I thought this too, this was how we felt 4 years ago days before the election.

jerseyhoya wrote:Cannot overstate if you are able to get Hillary -300 or whatever that's tremendous value.

Yeah, I would have bet $1000 to win $100 at like 6 PM on Election Night 2016 after the early exits dropped.

It's true that Trump is behind, and it's true that things can change. But, it seems to me that it's more likely that things will change in ways that are bad for Trump, not good. Covid isn't going to get better in the swing states, and in fact is likely to get worse in several swing states especially in the Midwest. The Iowa positivity rates are eye wateringly bad. Trump's health doesn't seem great, and I wouldn't be shocked if in the weeks ahead there isn't obvious public evidence of serious cognitive decline.

I do think the main reason behind the gap narrowing is the stock market has come back. I suppose if it continues to gain it could narrow the gap further, and I've been pretty wrong about what the market is going to do, but major gains between now and September do seem unlikely. (And there's at least as much possibility if not of a 10% or more pull back as there is of major gains going forward--S and P pe ratio is pretty high right now--not a level it tends to sustain.)

Finally, as far as what's happening regarding the police and far right riots--those didn't help Trump earlier this summer, so it's not really clear they're going to help him now.

So how soon after Nov 3rd do you think trump will start filing lawsuits?

Bill McNeal wrote:There are so many Trump signs and flags around me it’s wild.

me too. I haven't seen a single Biden sign. Some of the Trump signs are huge. There's one at a tractor dealer that's as big as their business sign.

06hawkalum wrote:

jerseyhoya wrote:If the election was held today, there is something approaching zero doubt in my mind that Biden would win. I would wager $1000 to win $100.

Can things change, sure. But Trump is losing. Like, clearly losing.

Thanks, appreciate the perspective from someone in the biz. I believe things will need to change dramatically for the better over the next 60 days for Trump to stand a chance. I don’t foresee there being any such major developments during that period.

I swing back and forth between doom and confidence. My brain says Biden will win, but my gut says Trump.

But I disagree that no major developments will happen during that period. We've had major developments weekly for months. It hasn't made a difference yet, but it could. And then there's Trump's willingness to do anything to win, which will almost certainly lead to a major development or three. The dude is going to jail for the rest of his life if he loses. He will do anything. Anything. We better be prepared for it.

One thing that does give me some calm when I think about it is there must be tons of good people in the CIA and FBI who are super patriotic and love the traditional version of America. I would like to think they have our back, if push comes to shove. It wouldn't surprise me if they are working behind the scenes to keep Trump from cheating.

thephan wrote:DHS curated high confidence intelligence that Russia was planning to attack biden in his bid for the White House with accusations of mental incapacity. That briefing memo was tagged to be held for review by the acting head of DHS. This bulletin was created on the 7th of July, and Mr Wolf has not seen fit to review the material for release it would seem. Curious how that is.

The article mentions it, the term high confidence is not something that is used lightly.

https://abcnews.go.com/amp/Politics/dhs ... d=72747130

This might help explain why Biden and Harris went out of their way to say they would inform the public if they became positive.

Stay_Disappointed wrote:So how soon after Nov 3rd do you think trump will start filing lawsuits?

I wouldn’t be surprised if he started on November 3 or even sooner just to sow as much doubt and confusion as possible.

i'm sure the doj will release a hunter biden investigation memo somewhere around 10/30

Monkeyboy wrote:

Bill McNeal wrote:There are so many Trump signs and flags around me it’s wild.

me too. I haven't seen a single Biden sign. Some of the Trump signs are huge. There's one at a tractor dealer that's as big as their business sign.

I had to return something to my parents house today. Huge Trump flag on their porch.

I wouldn’t go near anyone who would fly a huge trump flag but unless they are law enforcement what does trump provide that benefits them?

I walked around my neighborhood a few weeks ago and saw probably 5 or 6 Biden signs. Sure not much but I don’t think I could have found 6 Hillary signs a week before the election. So whenever you’re seeing a bunch of Trump signs around, I hope this makes you feel better.

There's a god awful biden sign floating around. For some reason it has trunks hair on top of the word Biden. Makes no sense.

Guess it's not his name

https://www.etsy.com/listing/814995718/ ... trump-nope

jamiethekiller wrote:Guess it's not his name

https://www.etsy.com/listing/814995718/ ... trump-nope

Don’t understand why you wouldn’t just spend the $25 in the Biden store and send money to the campaign instead of $30 to some Etsy person for an ugly sign