Polls show Biden* with a ten point national lead.

Hillary was way ahead, too.

Took a drive thru Dripping Springs, Johnson City, and Marble Falls yesterday.

Saw six big yard signs for Trump. Zero for Biden.

Not surprising for rural Texas, but it reminds me of 2016 driving in Lancaster and seeing only Trump support.

This Russian stooge has a LOT of support that does not show up in polls.

TomatoPie wrote:Polls show Trump with a ten point national lead.

RCP National Average is Biden by 5.9% and none of their most recent polls favor Trump.

What am I missing?

Think he meant Biden with a 10 point lead

Trent Steele wrote:

Augustus wrote:Do people not remember 2016? Hillary was supposed to be putting Texas, Georgia, and Arizona in play.

Biden is not as unpopular as Hillary, but he's still underwater in favorable/unfavorable. Trump is more popular now then he was then. The shy Trump effect in polling is probably even bigger this time, because there's a lot of white people who claim they would have voted for Biden in 2016 but actually love Trump.

Not saying I think he's guaranteed a win, but he's got to be the favorite right now.

This is ridiculous analysis that ignores, among other things, 2018, the fact Arizona has moved left as reflected in the truth that Kelly is going to smoke McSally and will have two D senators, that Trump is also more unpopular than he was in 2016, that Texas and Georgia are completely irrelevant from an Electoral Vote perspective, that Trump has zero chance of turning any blue state in 2016 red in 2020 (remember Virginia lol), that this requires Trump to pull off another miracle where he has no path but to take Florida and Michigan or Pennsylvania (I say he is a prohibitive underdog in both) or Florida and both Arizona and Wisconsin. There's no other way he gets re-elected. I say he's a 2 to 1 dog.

I only brought those states up in response to another post which claimed that Biden was going to flip many red states. I struggle to see how or why Arizona has "moved to the left." I'm sure some of McSally's struggles are attributable to anti-Trump sentiment, but she has several other unique liabilities. One, her appointment after a close election loss to Sinema was widely panned by both liberals and conservatives as undemocratic. Two, there is lots of turmoil in her campaign over whether to run as a Trump booster or a Trump skeptic-she's already fired one campaign manager over this. Three, as a result, she is distrusted by both moderate Republicans and pro-Trump Republicans; both groups see her as squishy and unprincipled. Four, she is running against a very strong candidate in Mark Kelly.

Sorry, but Trump is objectively more popular now than he was at this time in 2016. He was consistently 25-30 points underwater in favorable/unfavorable throughout that year; he's now about 12-15 points underwater. His approval rating is only a point or two below where he was at his inauguration. He has significantly shored up his support among Republicans, making defections to Biden less likely. Finally, despite the sore loser Bernie Bros narrative in 2016, Gary Johnson received over three times as many votes as Jill Stein. Quite a few of these voters will come home to the Republicans in 2020, including in PA, WI, MI, etc.

None of this is meant to discount Trump's obvious shortcomings and problems as a candidate. However, we have to acknowledge his advantages, such as incumbency, the structure of the Electoral College, social media misinformation and disinformation, and voter suppression. I hope my analysis turns out to be ridiculous, but I think calling an incumbent president a slight favorite over a weak challenger is a lot more sober and realistic than calling him a 2-1 dog.

Trent Steele wrote:

Augustus wrote:Do people not remember 2016? Hillary was supposed to be putting Texas, Georgia, and Arizona in play.

Biden is not as unpopular as Hillary, but he's still underwater in favorable/unfavorable. Trump is more popular now then he was then. The shy Trump effect in polling is probably even bigger this time, because there's a lot of white people who claim they would have voted for Biden in 2016 but actually love Trump.

Not saying I think he's guaranteed a win, but he's got to be the favorite right now.

This is ridiculous analysis that ignores, among other things, 2018, the fact Arizona has moved left as reflected in the truth that Kelly is going to smoke McSally and will have two D senators, that Trump is also more unpopular than he was in 2016, that Texas and Georgia are completely irrelevant from an Electoral Vote perspective, that Trump has zero chance of turning any blue state in 2016 red in 2020 (remember Virginia lol), that this requires Trump to pull off another miracle where he has no path but to take Florida and Michigan or Pennsylvania (I say he is a prohibitive underdog in both) or Florida and both Arizona and Wisconsin. There's no other way he gets re-elected. I say he's a 2 to 1 dog.

I only brought those states up in response to another post which claimed that Biden was going to flip many red states. I struggle to see how or why Arizona has "moved to the left." I'm sure some of McSally's struggles are attributable to anti-Trump sentiment, but she has several other unique liabilities. One, her appointment after a close election loss to Sinema was widely panned by both liberals and conservatives as undemocratic. Two, there is lots of turmoil in her campaign over whether to run as a Trump booster or a Trump skeptic-she's already fired one campaign manager over this. Three, as a result, she is distrusted by both moderate Republicans and pro-Trump Republicans; both groups see her as squishy and unprincipled. Four, she is running against a very strong candidate in Mark Kelly.

Sorry, but Trump is objectively more popular now than he was at this time in 2016. He was consistently 25-30 points underwater in favorable/unfavorable throughout that year; he's now about 12-15 points underwater. His approval rating is only a point or two below where he was at his inauguration. He has significantly shored up his support among Republicans, making defections to Biden less likely. Finally, despite the sore loser Bernie Bros narrative in 2016, Gary Johnson received over three times as many votes as Jill Stein. Quite a few of these voters will come home to the Republicans in 2020, including in PA, WI, MI, etc.

None of this is meant to discount Trump's obvious shortcomings and problems as a candidate. However, we have to acknowledge his advantages, such as incumbency, the structure of the Electoral College, social media misinformation and disinformation, and voter suppression. I hope my analysis turns out to be ridiculous, but I think calling an incumbent president a slight favorite over a weak challenger is a lot more sober and realistic than calling him a 2-1 dog.

I think 2-to-1 underdog is fair. If the election was held today, Biden would be like -500.

Something would have to change to alter the basic dynamics of the race to push it back towards a tossup or even Trump being favored. Biden is fully capable of having a stroke in the middle of the debate, so it's a possibility, but I think to some extent people have overlearned the lessons of 2016 to the point where there's a tendency to look to give Trump's chances every possible benefit of the doubt while discounting his liabilities.

MoBettle wrote:Does "challenge the election results" just mean Trump will say some crazy stuff on twitter? I don't think he's hard working or diligent enough to substantiate something like that.

He's for sure not helping the next president transition though.

He’ll have a lot of help from the DOJ and republican state governments. Investigations of voter fraud is something republicans can really get behind in NORMAL times. This election is going to be a real shit show. Florida, Arizona, Texas, Colorado and Ohio could all be chaotic.

06hawkalum wrote:

Warszawa wrote:

06hawkalum wrote:

pacino wrote:it's going to be a very tight election

and if Trump loses, will he actually transfer power?

Oh course he will transfer power. He will want that pardon. Also, it is out of his hands. Biden will be inaugerated whether Trump acquieses or not. If necessary, the Secret Service will escort the Trump family out of the White House.

I wouldn't be shocked, considering they are white trash, if they leave the WH in shambles and that Biden will need to spend a few weeks residing at Number One Circle Observatory while staff fixes the place up.

You think the incoming president will offer a pardon to ensure that he leaves? Pardons won’t work for non-federal indictments right? He will challenge the election results no matter what. He will do whatever he can to overturn the results before Inauguration Day. He has the justice dept in his pocket, he will bully the republican state govts to throw out election results and he had a conservative SCOTUS. It could all come down to Roberts. In any event it will not be a peaceful transition of power. He will trash everything, share no info and incite violence.

I think you are mistaken.

#1 - I think the GOP will be glad to rid themselves of Trump if he loses.

#2 - Biden can get to 270 without the aid of any states governed by Trumpies. Those states are already red.

#3 Trump is going to have to face the music eventually, whether that be in 2021 or 2025.

Hopefully I am right and you are wrong.

I hope I’m wrong too. however I don’t think the GOP will be glad to get if Trump. The GOP is trump now

So Anonymous leaked documents of a lawsuit Jane Doe vs. Trump/Epstein. She was 13 at the time.

CalvinBall wrote:Think he meant Biden with a 10 point lead

Yes, thanks. I'll fix that

If the allegations are legit than Trump raped girls AND boys as young as 10 years old. Would not surprise me in the least.

06hawkalum wrote:If the allegations are legit than Trump raped girls AND boys as young as 10 years old. Would not surprise me in the least.

Here's the full PDF of the court document. Not gonna link that list of supposed settlements though.

https://www.scribd.com/document/3527559 ... Affidavits

Warszawa wrote:

MoBettle wrote:Does "challenge the election results" just mean Trump will say some crazy stuff on twitter? I don't think he's hard working or diligent enough to substantiate something like that.

He's for sure not helping the next president transition though.

He’ll have a lot of help from the DOJ and republican state governments. Investigations of voter fraud is something republicans can really get behind in NORMAL times. This election is going to be a real shit show. Florida, Arizona, Texas, Colorado and Ohio could all be chaotic.

You think the DOJ is going to fabricate hundreds of thousands if not millions of fraudulent voting records after the election takes place? I’m just trying to wrap my head around how he could get in the position where he can substantiate a claim like that.

I think he’ll raise a stink with no substance behind it as usual. Maybe the Maga people will buy it, but I don’t think they’re capable of actually pulling something like that off. If they are they may as well just try to rig the election for trump.

Got my mail in ballot yesterday, just filled it out. Going to drop it off tomorrow. In case any other chesco residents have mail in ballots that need to be dropped off, they added 5 new drop off locations:

Chester County Government Services Center, 601 Westtown Road, West Chester, PA
Located in the lobby. Open all hours until 8:00 p.m. on Tuesday, June 2nd.

Chester County Public Safety Training Campus, 137 Modena Road, Coatesville, PA
Located at the test site greeter station. Open from 8:00 a.m. to 6:00 p.m.

Longwood Gardens South Parking Lot, 1010 East Baltimore Pike, Chadds Ford, PA
Located at the test site greeter station. Open from 8:00 a.m. to 6:00 p.m.

Kimberton Fair Grounds, 762 Pike Springs Road, Phoenixville, PA
Located in the parking lot. Open from 11:00 a.m. to 7:00 p.m.

Warwick County Park, 191 County Park Road, Pottstown, PA
Located in the park office. Open from 11:00 a.m. to 7:00 p.m.

Battle of the Clouds Park, 125 North Phoenixville Pike, Malvern, PA
Located in the parking lot. Open from 11:00 a.m. to 7:00 p.m.

And pac, voted for your wife!

Bill McNeal wrote:Got my mail in ballot yesterday, just filled it out. Going to drop it off tomorrow. In case any other chesco residents have mail in ballots that need to be dropped off, they added 5 new drop off locations:

Chester County Government Services Center, 601 Westtown Road, West Chester, PA
Located in the lobby. Open all hours until 8:00 p.m. on Tuesday, June 2nd.

Chester County Public Safety Training Campus, 137 Modena Road, Coatesville, PA
Located at the test site greeter station. Open from 8:00 a.m. to 6:00 p.m.

Longwood Gardens South Parking Lot, 1010 East Baltimore Pike, Chadds Ford, PA
Located at the test site greeter station. Open from 8:00 a.m. to 6:00 p.m.

Kimberton Fair Grounds, 762 Pike Springs Road, Phoenixville, PA
Located in the parking lot. Open from 11:00 a.m. to 7:00 p.m.

Warwick County Park, 191 County Park Road, Pottstown, PA
Located in the park office. Open from 11:00 a.m. to 7:00 p.m.

Battle of the Clouds Park, 125 North Phoenixville Pike, Malvern, PA
Located in the parking lot. Open from 11:00 a.m. to 7:00 p.m.

And pac, voted for your wife!

Great information. Thanks.

momadance wrote:So Anonymous leaked documents of a lawsuit Jane Doe vs. Trump/Epstein. She was 13 at the time.

Has this been corroborated

momadance wrote:So Anonymous leaked documents of a lawsuit Jane Doe vs. Trump/Epstein. She was 13 at the time.

I wonder what exhibits A and B are. Seems like much of their case will ride on them.

They’re declarations from the alleged victim and another woman that worked for Epstein.

Whole complaint is here: https://cdn.factcheck.org/UploadedFiles ... awsuit.pdf

Yeah seems like this one is legit. There are other things floating that name Trump settlements with victims but there's no way to prove the validity of that. Plus it includes victim names, locations, and dates which is pretty fucked up.

Augustus wrote:

Trent Steele wrote:

Augustus wrote:Do people not remember 2016? Hillary was supposed to be putting Texas, Georgia, and Arizona in play.

Biden is not as unpopular as Hillary, but he's still underwater in favorable/unfavorable. Trump is more popular now then he was then. The shy Trump effect in polling is probably even bigger this time, because there's a lot of white people who claim they would have voted for Biden in 2016 but actually love Trump.

Not saying I think he's guaranteed a win, but he's got to be the favorite right now.

This is ridiculous analysis that ignores, among other things, 2018, the fact Arizona has moved left as reflected in the truth that Kelly is going to smoke McSally and will have two D senators, that Trump is also more unpopular than he was in 2016, that Texas and Georgia are completely irrelevant from an Electoral Vote perspective, that Trump has zero chance of turning any blue state in 2016 red in 2020 (remember Virginia lol), that this requires Trump to pull off another miracle where he has no path but to take Florida and Michigan or Pennsylvania (I say he is a prohibitive underdog in both) or Florida and both Arizona and Wisconsin. There's no other way he gets re-elected. I say he's a 2 to 1 dog.

I only brought those states up in response to another post which claimed that Biden was going to flip many red states. I struggle to see how or why Arizona has "moved to the left." I'm sure some of McSally's struggles are attributable to anti-Trump sentiment, but she has several other unique liabilities. One, her appointment after a close election loss to Sinema was widely panned by both liberals and conservatives as undemocratic. Two, there is lots of turmoil in her campaign over whether to run as a Trump booster or a Trump skeptic-she's already fired one campaign manager over this. Three, as a result, she is distrusted by both moderate Republicans and pro-Trump Republicans; both groups see her as squishy and unprincipled. Four, she is running against a very strong candidate in Mark Kelly.

Sorry, but Trump is objectively more popular now than he was at this time in 2016. He was consistently 25-30 points underwater in favorable/unfavorable throughout that year; he's now about 12-15 points underwater. His approval rating is only a point or two below where he was at his inauguration. He has significantly shored up his support among Republicans, making defections to Biden less likely. Finally, despite the sore loser Bernie Bros narrative in 2016, Gary Johnson received over three times as many votes as Jill Stein. Quite a few of these voters will come home to the Republicans in 2020, including in PA, WI, MI, etc.

None of this is meant to discount Trump's obvious shortcomings and problems as a candidate. However, we have to acknowledge his advantages, such as incumbency, the structure of the Electoral College, social media misinformation and disinformation, and voter suppression. I hope my analysis turns out to be ridiculous, but I think calling an incumbent president a slight favorite over a weak challenger is a lot more sober and realistic than calling him a 2-1 dog.

Agree 100%. The trick continues to be that Trump can and very maybe will lose by 5 points nationally, lose PA and one of MI or WI and still win. Meanwhile, Biden will certainly not be flipping any Trump states. People seem bound and determined to (1) underestimate to what extent Trump is to angry white people what Obama was to the young and to black people, and (2) underestimate the biggest thing about old, scared white people: they are your most reliable voting bloc, and they are in the bag for Trump.

Biden will lose, book it.