Brantt wrote:

CalvinBall wrote:Some new PA polls out this morning--

Sanders only one beating Trump head to head. up 3.

Biden and Warren tied. The rest under water.

That probably equates to Trump +5 in real life.

Why not +10? MSM shill.

Grotewold wrote:How do they account for no one under 50 answering the phone?

Helps bc no one under 50 votes (jk, ish)
https://www.muhlenberg.edu/media/conten ... onPoll.pdf

16% 18-29, 26% 30-49, 32% 50-65, 25% over 65

They also have (correct me if I'm wrong, jh), a target they're looking for with respect to age, education, sex, region, race and they weight the results accordingly (SKEWED POLLS).

The establishment Dems do seem really worried about a Sanders nomination, and I get that. Furthermore, in principle, I don't have a huge problem with a party establishment putting a finger on the scale in the candidate selection process--though am skeptical about elites ability to determine which candidate is most electable. However, the problem now is if the party wants to deny Sanders the nomination, they lack a truly credible alternative. Both Biden and Bloomberg raise serious doubts, and Klobuchar and Warren haven't really caught on with voters much. I guess that leaves Buttigieg. So, yeah, maybe, but unproven. (Really trying to be nice here.)

If there candidate pool features a Bill Clinton or Obama, stacking the deck would make sense. But that's not the world we live in.

Assuming you can't persuade Sanders to drop out (and why on earth would he?) I think the only option for the Democratic Party is to let the process play out.

JUburton wrote:

Grotewold wrote:How do they account for no one under 50 answering the phone?

Helps bc no one under 50 votes (jk, ish)
https://www.muhlenberg.edu/media/conten ... onPoll.pdf

16% 18-29, 26% 30-49, 32% 50-65, 25% over 65

They also have (correct me if I'm wrong, jh), a target they're looking for with respect to age, education, sex, region, race and they weight the results accordingly (SKEWED POLLS).

It's been awhile, but it is common, indeed standard practice to weight on age and education.

The real issue though is the lack of landlines and call screening. So far, this hasn't been a real problem for public opinion research, but there's no reason to think it won't be a problem soon.

Frankly, I'd like to see more attempts to use panel based studies and other alternatives to Random Digit Dial sampling methodologies. But with so many universities and other institutions using cheap polls to promote their institution (had you ever heard of Quinnipiac University before? And what the hell is Emerson College, primarily a performing arts college, running a poll?) and the media lapping up every release rather than doing actual reporting, well, whatever.

Quinnipiac and Emerson are good though.

JUburton wrote:

Grotewold wrote:How do they account for no one under 50 answering the phone?

Helps bc no one under 50 votes (jk, ish)
https://www.muhlenberg.edu/media/conten ... onPoll.pdf

16% 18-29, 26% 30-49, 32% 50-65, 25% over 65

They also have (correct me if I'm wrong, jh), a target they're looking for with respect to age, education, sex, region, race and they weight the results accordingly (SKEWED POLLS).

Different pollsters do these things differently. But usually you would set minimums for age (young), gender, race (in PA, black), and then specific regional targets by some grouping (DMA, with key counties probably). Probably a max on college educated voters. And then try to make up for it on the back end with weighting. I can't tell from the methodology statement if they randomly dialed and screened in registered voters or if they called off a voter list. If you're calling off a voter list, you can do a bit more because you know who you're talking to, their demographics, vote history, etc.

But generally speaking, a poll that was in the field for 9 days and only gets a bit over 400 respondents in a state the size of Pennsylvania is leaving many things to be desired.

538 rated it an A+ poll

CalvinBall wrote:538 rated it an A+ poll

A+ pollster. And the big takeaway for me is the margin of error. 95% of scenarios are basically Trump +2 or 3 to Dem +5 (depending on the dem). It's a tie.

Well yes, PA was always going to be close, unfortunately. Just one data point but interesting to see that Sanders is getting the higher numbers right now despite what MSNBC has been yelling about for a month.

JUburton wrote:Quinnipiac and Emerson are good though.

But the basic purpose isn't furthering our knowledge of voting and public opinion, but rather building name recognition for the parent institution. As far as I know, they do little more than horse race polls.

This is in contrast to places like the Roper Center and Pew which actually do real public opinion research.

06hawkalum wrote:

CalvinBall wrote:pretty scary tbh

If it was Ebola, yeah. If I had a compromised immune system or was elderly, yeah. As things stand I am concerned for the welfare of my older friends and relatives, but I am not particularly fearful.

And yes, I do understand that a handful of seemingly healthy folks have succombed to this virus and I will freak the fuck out if my wife or I contract it. With that said, odds are we would make it through just fine as the vast majority of the cases aren't much more severe than the common cold.

Yeh, chances are individuals will be fine, but overall many people will get very sick and die. When you have 7 billion people on the planet (or 350 million in a country), even a 0.1% chance of getting sick and possibly dying results in a lot of misery.

I think people also need to remember that this is a new virus to humans and it could mutate into something much worse. We shouldn't relax about it just because it's not very deadly. It may turn deadly.

Trent Steele wrote:Forget about the national polls. He has zero chance in Florida, so assuming Bernie can win PA, VA, Nev, and MI, his only path to beating Trump is winning Wisconsin or Arizona. That's it (and that really just means Wisconsin probably). Bernie isn't winning in NC, Texas, Georgia, Iowa, or Ohio.

Nothing else matters.

Bernie's upside is that he could be the Dem most likely to win Wisconsin, but he has zero margin of error. But in reality, Bernie is unlikely to provide you any marginal electoral votes beyond a generic candidate. A monkey could get you to 230ish.

The strategic argument for Biden (and to a lesser extent, Bloomberg) is that he puts Florida back in play.

Yeh, I think the election comes down to Wisconsin. That's why I'm concerned with the level of voter suppression the GOP is doing there. That quote from the GOP election dude was chilling. They will be aggressive in trying to stop minorities from voting. Would not be surprised if some kind of martial law is called in Milwaukee due to some made up reason.

Nothing to see here...Please disperse.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/27/us/p ... pence.html

WASHINGTON — The White House moved on Thursday to tighten control of coronavirus messaging by government health officials and scientists, directing them to clear all statements and public appearance with the office of Vice President Mike Pence, according to several officials familiar with the new approach.

President Trump announced Wednesday evening that Mr. Pence would coordinate the government’s response to the public health threat even as he played down the immediate danger from the virus that is spreading rapidly across the globe. Mr. Pence was scheduled to lead a meeting of the government’s coronavirus task force on Thursday.

Officials insist the goal is not to control the content of what subject-matter experts and other officials are saying, but to make sure their efforts are being coordinated, after days of confusion with various administration officials showing up on television.

momadance wrote:

I love the smell of discovery in the morning.

That was my take, as well. They are trying to have a chilling effect on papers reporting the issue, but I'm not sure they didn't just damage their own campaign.

momadance wrote:Nothing to see here...Please disperse.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/27/us/p ... pence.html

WASHINGTON — The White House moved on Thursday to tighten control of coronavirus messaging by government health officials and scientists, directing them to clear all statements and public appearance with the office of Vice President Mike Pence, according to several officials familiar with the new approach.

President Trump announced Wednesday evening that Mr. Pence would coordinate the government’s response to the public health threat even as he played down the immediate danger from the virus that is spreading rapidly across the globe. Mr. Pence was scheduled to lead a meeting of the government’s coronavirus task force on Thursday.

Officials insist the goal is not to control the content of what subject-matter experts and other officials are saying, but to make sure their efforts are being coordinated, after days of confusion with various administration officials showing up on television.

Just say no, or wait until marriage

thephan wrote:NBC is reporting that the FCC got over 1300 complaints about the super bowl half time show. Those folks who rally against political correctness are concerned about the smut, porn, and general degenerate nature those two put on and were allowed to broadcast to corrupt the masses.

"I do not subscribe to The Playboy Channel, we do not buy porn for $20 a flick, we simply wanted to sit down as a family and watch the Super Bowl"

The FCC received 94 complaints regarding Adam Levine's 2019 halftime show, during which he exposed his bare chest

So at least 94 people did not find something, anything better to do during that performance.

and at least 94 people have never been to a beach or public swimming pool.

Brantt wrote:Nate Silver says Bloomberg is sinking faster than the Titanic in the latest state by state polls.

This is when we start to find out that he has no intention of ever dropping out and he's working with Trump to make sure the election goes to trump. Rich people band together when there's an existential threat to their money like Sanders.

thephan wrote:Mike pence is an expert in these things. So says the president. I think Mike pence is going to die of coronavirus.

He said Mike pence created a healthcare system that other states are very jealous of and are modeling their healthcare after his plan. Fact Check!

Mike Pence is going to be jettisoned before the election. When coronavirus goes through the US, Pence will get the blame and Trump just set him up as the fall guy. Nicky Haley will be the replacement in an effort to get more women to vote for Trump.

/conspiracy theory

Monkeyboy wrote:

Brantt wrote:Nate Silver says Bloomberg is sinking faster than the Titanic in the latest state by state polls.

This is when we start to find out that he has no intention of ever dropping out and he's working with Trump to make sure the election goes to trump. Rich people band together when there's an existential threat to their money like Sanders.

/conspiracy theory

CalvinBall wrote:Well yes, PA was always going to be close, unfortunately. Just one data point but interesting to see that Sanders is getting the higher numbers right now despite what MSNBC has been yelling about for a month.

Yeh, I'm really interested to see how Sanders will do when given the opportunity to make his case when voters are fully tuned-in. I honestly think pointing out that Trump is a corporate socialist will help Sanders, a lot. And I could see Sanders pulling back some of those rural white voters that went Trump in 2016. That assumes Trump's supporters are capable of listening, of course. The Trump cult is so rigid that maybe they won't hear what Sanders is actually saying.