thephan wrote:Obama’s cadence works because he was saying something, Pete is offering nothing.

Hmmmm... was he though? Looking back at 2008 Obama I remember a lot of pablum about hope and change and Yes We Can and putting the arguments and debates of the boomer generation behind us and moving forward together as one America... very much like the stuff Buttigieg was saying last night. I don’t remember a lot of high flying rhetoric about specific policy proposals. To the degree that there was any it was about health care needs to be affordable and accessible to all Americans, etc. General statements, not proposals, and again Buttigieg’s remarks last night followed along in this model.

In fact I think the criticism of Obama from the Hillary people, and what drove them nuts, was that he was significantly more style than substance, in comparison to their candidate.

To be fair you can’t really deliver the kind of grand speech Obama wanted to deliver and was good at delivering about dry and specific policy proposals, and to the extent he did make them they are not the kind of thing that tends to stick in one’s head 12 years later. Obama’s race speech in Philadelphia I remember being truly moving, and saying something of deep importance. And, I was most definitely swept up in the Obama excitement of 2008.

But to the degree today I see disenchantment with Obama and the broader Democratic establishment on the left, and among working class whites, I think much of it can be sourced to the feeing of disconnect between the soaring rhetoric of the Obama years and the actual “change” he brought, or didn’t bring. It’s a different political moment than 12 years ago; we’ve had a long recovery that hasn’t done much to solve some of the core economic issues that trouble the country, and the time for believing in rhetoric that is not backed by hard, substantive, and yes, radical changes to how the economy is structured falls flat to people who are struggling with six figure student loan debt, three jobs and no health care, and no obvious way to turn any of it around.

I thought Obama was a terrific President; but now it is time to convert America’s riches to wealth for all of her citizens.

https://www.npr.org/2020/02/10/80461260 ... ted-states

Lot of people could give this a good listen. (no subtweets intended, but you all know people like this in your office)

By the way, you should all listen to me. My posts on this page and for the two that follow it from April of 2016 make me look like a goddamn GENIUS.

Wolfgang622 wrote:By the way, you should all listen to me. My posts on this page and for the two that follow it from April of 2016 make me look like a goddamn GENIUS.

genius? nah... that's some straight up Nostradamus shit right there! you called it.

Caught a teaser on NPR's 1A for a segment where they found "ONE female GOP voter in Michigan who is not voting for Trump next election." Unintentional humor.

https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/ar ... ar/605530/

This is a long read (there is an audio version). I cannot say that there are surprises, but there are certainly a depth of detail all in one place to digest.

Dumpster fire in Chief twitter wrote:Congratulations to Attorney General Bill Barr for taking charge of a case that was totally out of control and perhaps should not have even been brought. Evidence now clearly shows that the Mueller Scam was improperly brought & tainted. Even Bob Mueller lied to Congress!

nothing can be said and someday I will stop being shocked

jerseyhoya wrote:

CalvinBall wrote:Votes in has turnout up 18 percent from 2016

Given there wasn't really a Republican primary, that's really unimpressive

CNN estimates that when all votes are counted in NH, turnout in the Dem primary will exceed the record number of votes cast in 2008. At minimum, there will be 295,000 votes cast in Tuesday’s Democratic primary. In 2008, 288,672 votes were cast.
— @jennagiesta & @adamplevy

Jake Tapper on Twitter.

2008 election or 2008 primary

jamiethekiller wrote:2008 election or 2008 primary

I would assume primary. Wikipedia has general around 700k in 2018. So definitely primary.

Counterpoint

Little cold water on this, via @FiveThirtyEight:

“NH has roughly 89,000 more eligible voters in 2020 than it did in 2008...as a percentage of eligible voters, turnout in the Democratic primary this year was around 26%, while it was 29% in the 2008 Democratic primary.”

https://twitter.com/asdem/status/122762 ... 25281?s=21

Good thing expanding the electorate is something everyone can love!!!

I'm no media pundit, but I don't think we should try to infer anything about anything based on comparing turnout between two different elections in one tiny very non-representative state.

And there was a competitive Republican primary in 2008

I don't think primary turnout is a super telling indicator because there are reasons where it going up indicates bad things as well as good things and vice versa with lower turnout. But seems like turnout has been soft in the first two states, compared to a lot of the enthusiasm from 2018. Will learn more as more states join the fray.

Wolfgang622 wrote:By the way, you should all listen to me. My posts on this page and for the two that follow it from April of 2016 make me look like a goddamn GENIUS.

Wasting time at work, I am going through my old political posts and one thing I have concluded beyond a shadow of a doubt is that I understand Pennsylvania a lot better than jerseyhoya does. Vote for me for HOF!

Wolfgang622 wrote:But to the degree today I see disenchantment with Obama and the broader Democratic establishment on the left, and among working class whites, I think much of it can be sourced to the feeing of disconnect between the soaring rhetoric of the Obama years and the actual “change” he brought, or didn’t bring. It’s a different political moment than 12 years ago; we’ve had a long recovery that hasn’t done much to solve some of the core economic issues that trouble the country, and the time for believing in rhetoric that is not backed by hard, substantive, and yes, radical changes to how the economy is structured falls flat to people who are struggling with six figure student loan debt, three jobs and no health care, and no obvious way to turn any of it around.

I've heard people reconciling Obama's legacy to things not finished, and I think it is an unfair assessment. Clearly people have forgotten what a desperate time it was when he took office. The economy was in free fall built on bad policy and deregulation enabled by shaken confidence of a first of its kind terrorist attack. That unbelievable reality seems to have been lost. WE are now in year 12 of the Obama recovery. That seems to be at best forgotten and at worst misunderstood via the rhetoric of Trump. In today's megaphone world politic Trump is wholly responsible, and it only began when he got that devil out of office. Trump's rhetoric is causing some type of malaise that this is somehow true and that Obama's team deserves no credit whatsoever. It is his 'I alone' that is being adopted, and people coming up dry on Obama's accomplishment in this single area is disingenuous.

Maybe I am showing my age, but it truly was a time so uncertain there were reasonable questions. In the intervening 5 years of Bush nothing much was accomplished to right the ship, and the methods, or lack there of, retarded policy that could have stemmed what happened next. Bush was not responsible for how the mortgage crisis started, but he did nothing to slow it. There were clear and well reported indicators that these derivative markets driven by cheap money and loose credit were initiating a disaster. In someways it is amazing that it took as long as it did to unravel as there was the telecom, tech and (catch all) housing bubble in relatively short order (late 2000 - early 06). The recognized end and start of recovery was swift under Obama.

Was it perfect and did all boats rise? No. It would be foolish or idealistic to think that utopia exists. Did Obama try to create equality rather then just talk about it? Indeed he did, but the House and Senate stymied attempts. FDR had at his disposal the ability to experiment, and rapidly adopt, change or drop ideas in his historic recovery. The power he acquired in the executive office was daunting, but it gave him agility that any technologies today could admire, and the audacity of his vision is amazing. Contrast that with an unfriendly congress that hobbled, stalled, or destroyed whatever it could based on partisan whim. Really it is amazing Obama got through what he did, and what he did get through has seen the hatchet wielded by not only congress, but Trump.

What all this is about is that substantive change takes time, and much of what could be accomplished was disabled. If you take student loans, Obama's administration started the federal student loan program to help people afford collage, but the summary is that it costs tens of billions of dollars, forcing hardworking Americans to subsidize college-educated deadbeats. That is a popular take away from this program. That was a start, and that popular perception makes some liberal candidates vision of some amount of free college seem unlikely. College debt is a no joke problem. The underlying college cost is a separate problem as quality education costs an amazing amount of money, with a questionable ROI. For example a tier one research school costs over $60,000/year with an expected salary of $60,000 to $80,000 meaning that if you can get in, then your salary is just about the same as one year of college putting the millstone around your neck. Its insane. That does not even get to the place where those schools are "selective" which means for kids from areas with the best schools meaning wealthy. It is not as white as you might imagine, but it certainly is populated by the "haves". Even scholarship supported there are general issues with affording books, transportation, food, etc. which puts these institutions out of reach, or creates a situation where some percentage of the students are at risk.

Families with parents with multiple jobs is clearly an issue of people being alive, but not living, and it is another disabler. As to 'no health care', well try that Trump care because you can afford it, you just cannot afford to be sick.

So back to my premise which is 8 years of cooperative, fully focused effort would not have answered the nations woes, but 8 years of mostly uphill fight against these basic premises follow by 4 years of an administration obsessed with erasing that history exasperates the situation. By fanning the fire of Obama didn't do much more then talk it helps Trump do his dirty work.

thephan wrote:For example a tier one research school costs over $60,000/year with an expected salary of $60,000 to $80,000 meaning that if you can get in, then your salary is just about the same as one year of college putting the millstone around your neck. Its insane.

Is it? I think most would sign up for that. Live with family for a few years (like a lot of early 20s people need to, anyway) and you're golden.

The bigger problem is the people paying 30-40K a year for a degree with scant job/salary prospects. We seem to be in a time where your average degree doesn't necessarily get you anywhere, but you're fucked without it.

I agree, there are other problems. 240k for 4 years, if you can get out is horrific. What it's the expectation that you then restored home to get started. That is a new norm, but today should not be the expectation.

Junk degrees and crap colleges are a same, different problem. The current admin does not care but the I idea the the leader started Trump u tells it's own story.

There is also an emerging norm of going straight for a master's that screws this up further.its pretty great for University however.

Partng thought is don't go to school for what you love if there are not jobs.

It's absurd. Even if you go engineering and come out making 75k or 80k a year, you're still 200k in the hole at bad interest rates that you're paying off at 1k-1.5k per month for 20 or 30 years. It's almost literally an extra mortgage. I wonder why people can't save up for a down payment these days.

asked a lot of coworkers over the years what their breaking point would be(i'm in engineering) compared to another field of work. none of them could really come up with a number.

i mean, make 100k salary in 10ish years with 150k in debt or make 60ish with a similiar debt. its a no brainer still.