Election week: Blue wave or blue balls? (Politics)

Re: Election week: Blue wave or blue balls? (Politics)

Postby 1 » Sat Nov 03, 2018 19:55:34

An Idaho school district apologized after photos circulated showing some elementary school staffers wearing Halloween costumes depicting Mexican stereotypes, and others posing behind a cardboard wall adorned with the slogan "Make America Great Again."


https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1058 ... 83456?s=21
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Re: Election week: Blue wave or blue balls? (Politics)

Postby Doll Is Mine » Sat Nov 03, 2018 20:08:48

Wait? School staffers? As in teachers?

Ugh

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Re: Election week: Blue wave or blue balls? (Politics)

Postby JFLNYC » Sat Nov 03, 2018 20:48:19

Apparently not one of them had the presence of mind to think it might not be the best idea. What a country we live in! I’m surprised they didn’t just smear on black face and do a minstrel show.
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Re: Election week: Blue wave or blue balls? (Politics)

Postby Wolfgang622 » Sat Nov 03, 2018 23:04:47

jerseyhoya wrote:One thing when you're looking at 2014 as the baseline - nationally turnout sucked, and the 2014 turnout in a lot of states with big races this year had legitimately abysmal turnout then. For example Indiana, Texas, and Nevada each had under 30% of their voting eligible populations vote as there weren't any competitive races (sorry Wendy Davis). So turnout in those states would need to go up like 30% relative to 2014 just to hit what the shitty national turnout level was in 2014 and would need to go up almost 50% to hit what average national turnout was in 2010.

Not to deny turnout this year looks like it will be very high for a midterm & looks like it will be so in such a way that helps Dems, but there's a lot of "HOLY SHIT LOOK AT THIS COMPARED TO 2014!" going on without the context of just how low a bar that is to clear.


In my unscientific way I tend to think of turnout in terms of the equivalent point in the previous presidency (read: 8 year period). So, if you go back to 2010, that was the last time we were in the midterm of the first term of a new president. Then, it was Barack Obama, along with D controlled House and Senate. And we know what happened next.

My own district, I think is, sadly, idiosyncratic in this latter day idiom of ours, seemingly suffused as it is with a strict partisan divide. Sadly because it is genuinely purple, and we need more of those - not just purple in the sense that it is roughly a 50/50 split of Ds and Rs with enough actual, real, not pretending independents to swing the vote one way or the other, but also purple in the sense that a good number - perhaps even a majority - of people split their tickets because they are not so ideological as they are interested in the quality and qualities of the candidate(s) running.

So I expect turnout to be high, Dems have the anger that Rs had in 2010 so a “bumper crop” of D turnout is expected, but registered Rs skew older and this is an old district and voting and engagement with the senior citizen crowd is of course always high.

My guess: we are right around 2010 here in terms of percentage of turnout, meaning a small uptick in the raw number of voters to reflect the small uptick in population since then. However, in this part of the world, I don’t think Dem outrage overcomes structural advantages for the incumbent in the US House seat; my own chances hinge on Scott Wallace keeping it close plus an ongoing civil war among Warminster Republicans pushing Warminster in my direction, plus a fair number of well-educated Rs taking out their distaste with Trump on their entire party, not just the federal and state-wide offices.

I’m an underdog with a puncher’s chance plus a bit.
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Re: Election week: Blue wave or blue balls? (Politics)

Postby CalvinBall » Sat Nov 03, 2018 23:08:26

And Leslie Odom Jr!

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Re: Election week: Blue wave or blue balls? (Politics)

Postby 06hawkalum » Sun Nov 04, 2018 05:10:43

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Re: Election week: Blue wave or blue balls? (Politics)

Postby pacino » Sun Nov 04, 2018 08:44:33

it's hard to split your ticket when only one party is currently engaging in reality and has to basically hold all views from center-right to left
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Re: Election week: Blue wave or blue balls? (Politics)

Postby pacino » Sun Nov 04, 2018 09:02:53

jesus christ:

A Republican congressional candidate in a competitive race in North Carolina said in a sermon that there would be no peace in Israel unless Jews and Muslims converted to Christianity, CNN reported Friday.

Mark Harris, who served as a Baptist pastor in Charlotte until resigning last year to run for office, recounted in 2011 his visit to the Holy Land.

“You cannot be in that land, as powerful and as moving as it is, without realizing the incredible tension that is constantly in that land between the Palestinians and the Jews,” Harris said. “There will never be peace in Jerusalem until the day comes that every knee shall bow, every tongue shall confess that Jesus Christ is Lord.”

Harris went on to say that no Jewish or Muslim resident of Jerusalem would find peace unless they accepted Jesus Christ.

“Jesus, when he went into Jerusalem, said, ‘I am the vine. I am the true vine,’ and until those that are called in Islam realize that and until those that are called in Judaism realize that, for that matter, until those that are caught in the religion of Christianity and are missing the personal relationship with Jesus Christ, realize that, there’ll never be peace in their soul or peace in their city,” he said.


huge Islamaphobe, too
thephan wrote:pacino's posting is one of the more important things revealed in weeks.

Calvinball wrote:Pacino was right.

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Re: Election week: Blue wave or blue balls? (Politics)

Postby CalvinBall » Sun Nov 04, 2018 09:12:41

Three days to make sure your friends, family and neighbors go vote.

What are you waiting for?

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Re: Election week: Blue wave or blue balls? (Politics)

Postby joboggi » Sun Nov 04, 2018 11:23:02

On electoral-vote.com this morning, there are three ties and two within a couple of points.

Blue wins in those states would give a majority of 52.

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Re: Election week: Blue wave or blue balls? (Politics)

Postby Monkeyboy » Sun Nov 04, 2018 12:41:41

Two days until the election and Kemp has launched a probe into possible cyber-crimes by the Georgia democratic party.

It's BS, I'm sure, but it makes me nervous. If it's one thing the GOP consistently does it's accuse the dems of whatever the GOP is about to do. I hope Georgia is as prepared for shenanigans as Pacino says PA is.
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Re: Election week: Blue wave or blue balls? (Politics)

Postby CalvinBall » Sun Nov 04, 2018 12:49:08

jerseyhoya wrote:One thing when you're looking at 2014 as the baseline - nationally turnout sucked, and the 2014 turnout in a lot of states with big races this year had legitimately abysmal turnout then. For example Indiana, Texas, and Nevada each had under 30% of their voting eligible populations vote as there weren't any competitive races (sorry Wendy Davis). So turnout in those states would need to go up like 30% relative to 2014 just to hit what the shitty national turnout level was in 2014 and would need to go up almost 50% to hit what average national turnout was in 2010.

Not to deny turnout this year looks like it will be very high for a midterm & looks like it will be so in such a way that helps Dems, but there's a lot of "HOLY SHIT LOOK AT THIS COMPARED TO 2014!" going on without the context of just how low a bar that is to clear.


Texas early vote is nearly at 2016 levels.

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Re: Election week: Blue wave or blue balls? (Politics)

Postby JFLNYC » Sun Nov 04, 2018 14:01:25

Monkeyboy wrote:Two days until the election and Kemp has launched a probe into possible cyber-crimes by the Georgia democratic party.

It's BS, I'm sure, but it makes me nervous. If it's one thing the GOP consistently does it's accuse the dems of whatever the GOP is about to do. I hope Georgia is as prepared for shenanigans as Pacino says PA is.


Or already has done.
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Re: Election week: Blue wave or blue balls? (Politics)

Postby pacino » Sun Nov 04, 2018 16:49:45

The person in charge of the election is running in it. I somehow doubt they are ready in the way we would likebsince their boss is the one creating the initial problem.

He is discrediting the election by being in charge of it. Any legitimate issues are now going to be fruit of the poison tree.
thephan wrote:pacino's posting is one of the more important things revealed in weeks.

Calvinball wrote:Pacino was right.

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Re: Election week: Blue wave or blue balls? (Politics)

Postby joboggi » Sun Nov 04, 2018 18:24:18

There is definitely a blue wave sweeping across the polls.

Let's see if it carries over to the ballot box.

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Re: Election week: Blue wave or blue balls? (Politics)

Postby pacino » Sun Nov 04, 2018 18:42:46

John Warner endorsed Tim Kaine, Abigail Spanberger and Leslie Cockburn over their GOP opponents.
thephan wrote:pacino's posting is one of the more important things revealed in weeks.

Calvinball wrote:Pacino was right.

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Re: Election week: Blue wave or blue balls? (Politics)

Postby Monkeyboy » Sun Nov 04, 2018 19:26:39

If you know anyone who doesn't have a car or is kind of iffy on voting, please offer them a ride to the polls or remind them to vote. Physically take them there if you think it will help get them into the booth.

Every vote will count. I think it's going to be closer than dems would like.
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Re: Election week: Blue wave or blue balls? (Politics)

Postby CalvinBall » Sun Nov 04, 2018 20:21:24

Monkeyboy wrote:If you know anyone who doesn't have a car or is kind of iffy on voting, please offer them a ride to the polls or remind them to vote. Physically take them there if you think it will help get them into the booth.

Every vote will count. I think it's going to be closer than dems would like.

Can you do absentee or how does that work?

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Re: Election week: Blue wave or blue balls? (Politics)

Postby Slowhand » Sun Nov 04, 2018 21:02:44

Monkeyboy wrote:If you know anyone who doesn't have a car or is kind of iffy on voting, please offer them a ride to the polls or remind them to vote. Physically take them there if you think it will help get them into the booth.


Unless they're voting Republican! :spam2: :dh:
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Re: Election week: Blue wave or blue balls? (Politics)

Postby PTOITWCFTPP » Mon Nov 05, 2018 00:04:09

I did an absentee ballot
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