The word continues to be they do not have the votes to put preppy brat tempermental Brett on SCOTUS.

THIS JUST IN, 500 law professors say Bratty Bret does not have judicial temperment and should not be confirmed.

I think that if Kav doesn't pass or withdraws then the next nominee will sail through pretty easily unless more of this type of shit arises...which I don't think it will. I think this particular nominee is outrageously abysmal and also has pretty out-there opinions on what can and can't be done to a President.

This will allow the Dems to say, "See...it wasn't just about blocking the seat. It was about the nominee."

Phred wrote:I think that if Kav doesn't pass or withdraws then the next nominee will sail through pretty easily unless more of this type of #$!&@ arises...which I don't think it will. I think this particular nominee is outrageously abysmal and also has pretty out-there opinions on what can and can't be done to a President.

This will allow the Dems to say, "See...it wasn't just about blocking the seat. It was about the nominee."

That was reasons 1-100 why Trump chose this guy to begin with.

Phred wrote:I think .... the next nominee will sail through pretty easily

Next man up.

Hey, did you folks just get your Presidential Alert?

Put my phone in airplane mode because I didn't want any beeping or noise. Looks like it didn't make any noise anyway.

jerseyhoya wrote:Seeing GOP response rates on polling in the past week or so that I haven't seen all cycle. Actually having to weight down GOP responses.

Dunno if it lasts (it probably won't), but seems the Kavanaugh stuff has led to some differential response rates in the GOP's favor for the first time since the cycle has been engaged.

I don't think this means a ton for November, unless Kav fails & the base really gets behind the next pick, but would not be surprised at all to see some public polls that don't weight for party swing toward the GOP (in a way that isn't real) as this week moves along.

My personal conspiracy theory tendencies, which generally tend to be fairly well suppressed by me, are ringing a five alarm type bell right now. It all seems so obvious:

1. The economy is doing well enough, and their guy (Trump) is both doing well enough in terms of speaking to the base and bad enough in terms of turning the stomach of moderate-ish voters, that Republicans are facing a perfect storm in the mid-terms for a total electoral disaster: the base isn't pissed, but the Democrats are right royally pissed and moderates are being put off by the worst of Trump's rhetoric and are ready to do something about it.

2. To win in November or at least mitigate their losses they need to gin up the base, but what is available to get them mad? The Rs control everything. Then you get the gift of a Supreme Court seat. Ah, but they already control the WH, House, and Senate, so they can nominate and confirm whoever they want. How best to use this weapon they have been given?

3. One thing that makes the white-male base that the Republican base depends on so much: liberal outrage. One thing that those same people love: liberal tears. One thing they reallyhate: liberal victories. What do you need to whip somebody up into a frenzy? Try to run them through these intense emotions (anger-love-hatred) over a short but intense period of time.

4. So what if Republicans had a nominee fir the SC who they could correctly hold up as a conservative icon, but who they KNEW had a significant ding against him that could easily lead to the scuttling of his nomination process? They can now deliver a play in five acts, as pre-determined as if it were written by the Bard himself:


Act I. Nominate their icon, and thereby hold out the notion of a promise made is a promise kept to their base: a truly 5-4 conservative majority Supreme Court! The base is overjoyed.

Act II. The Republicans sit back and watch as the Dems do what they do; everything the Dems and their supporters do plays right into Repulican hands, as it works the emotions of their base, who go from feeling joy for Kavanaugh to hatred of those who disparage and try to stop him; though at this stage, the hatred is tinged with mockery, as the base feels confident all the protesting will be for naught.

Act III. The turn. Republicans themselves see to it that the existence of an accuser who threatens to undo their perfect conservative golden boy gets leaked; the Democrats do what they do again, which in its turn further riles the Republican base, only with more intensity this time.

Act IV. Republicans start bringing this drama to a close. They launch into hysterical defenses of "their guy" and breathless hand-wringing about Democratic conspiracies and the like, to further enrage their base; resulting in yet more hyperbolic responses from Democrats; all this has the effect of getting their base to the point of frothing.

Act V. In the final act of our play finally, Republicans bait the Democrats into using the FBI to hang "their guy" out to dry, while pretending to be themselves outraged by it, allowing the Democrats a full temporary victory, which they paint, of course, as a leftist George Soros FBI plot to undermine the very fabric of democracy. Republicans scream to their base that this makes the mid-terms more important than ever; dutifully, blindly apoplectic Republican voters march to the polls en masse to punish the Democrats for daring to impeach the honor of Brett Kavanaugh.

Depending on the outcome, the Republicans either use the lame duck session or simply the new congress to put the next man up, every bit as conservative as Kavanaugh, perhaps more so, and put him on the SC. There is no risk, and the potential for quite a reward.


I know this isn't all fully true, but it feels like it is. And I feel certain Kavanaugh will be voted down; I think the clever among the Republicans, even if the more devious parts of my above story are not true, have already calculated that is the best possible outcome for them politically vis-a-vis November 6th.

traderdave wrote:Hey, did you folks just get your Presidential Alert?

Yes, what is that about?

Slowhand wrote:

traderdave wrote:Hey, did you folks just get your Presidential Alert?

Yes, what is that about?

tfw u accidentally test in prod

Per the Press Sec Don was just stating facts, no mocking.

thephan wrote:Per the Press Sec Don was just stating facts, no mocking.

I just saw that clip. They are all PsOS. Every single one of them. There is not a single official in this Administration that I can stomach.

traderdave wrote:Hey, did you folks just get your Presidential Alert?

Yes. I have to admit, I was a little confused by this:

Soren wrote:

Slowhand wrote:

traderdave wrote:Hey, did you folks just get your Presidential Alert?

Yes, what is that about?

tfw u accidentally test in prod

Dude I worked with had in his Skype status "No better test [sic]then prod" forever. Drove me nuts.

The QAnons think this is the start of martial law, and they welcome it

1. Kav scores scotus
2. Kav fails - THERE WILL BE NO HEARINGS UNTIL THE NEW Congress convenes. Vetting is a several month process.

2a.rep win Senate, Kav like nominee scores scotus

2b.dems win, regardless of impeachment, dems decline to hold a hearing on any scotus nominee, mimicing Mcconell.

Big stakes therefore, each team will play hardest ball possible.

Prediction Kav fails, Dems win Senate

It is perceived that the two Rep women voting no will give cover for Rep men to vote yes.

This is a historic miscalculation, as the number of women Rep votes plummets to a historic low.

I'd love to see some internals with demographic breakdowns in the TX senate election--I'd like to know if Cruz is losing the support of college educated white women. My understanding is winning Texas requires Republicans to run up big margins in Texas suburbs.

Also, I wonder if the Kavanaugh stuff won't convince lots of NJ suburban women voters to hold their nose and vote for Menendez.

North Dakota is all but lost it seems

The great Dem advantage of 2018. The Trumpians think that shooting themselves will HELP.

They are serious about creating a fascist state.

While Trump favorables are horrible, they are THE MOST CONSISTENT in history.

Menendez could be the key to SCOTUS. MORE than a bit brash, his running for reelection.

Oh well.