Ryan Struyk @ryanstruyk
With 98% of the vote reporting, here's the actual current #PA18 vote for Conor Lamb and his rough target benchmark to win:

Allegheny
Target: 57%
Now: 57%

Greene
Target: 37%
Now: 41%

Washington
Target: 46%
Now: 46%

Westmoreland
Target: 42%
Now: 42%

swishnicholson wrote:
i'm not sure why I keep picking at this, but Trump is trending to be more popular than Carter (in the next few weeks), Reagan and Clinton (in the next few months) and Obama (before the end of the year.)

Seeming more and more that we got what we wanted (and deserved).

slugsrbad wrote:I don't think that's necessarily true. None of these Presidents started (IIRC) as low as Trump, who really had only up to go, at best, he'll probably reach around the 45% mark of his inauguration w/out another total fuck up. The tax bill isn't selling well, and he has nothing else to really hang his hat on. The only way I see an increased jump in his polls is that he doesn't do something dumb, and he gets to appoint another SCOTUS judge that makes Jersey and his ilk nod in fervent agreement.

swishnicholson wrote:

swishnicholson wrote:
i'm not sure why I keep picking at this, but Trump is trending to be more popular than Carter (in the next few weeks), Reagan and Clinton (in the next few months) and Obama (before the end of the year.)

Seeming more and more that we got what we wanted (and deserved).

slugsrbad wrote:I don't think that's necessarily true. None of these Presidents started (IIRC) as low as Trump, who really had only up to go, at best, he'll probably reach around the 45% mark of his inauguration w/out another total #$!&@ up. The tax bill isn't selling well, and he has nothing else to really hang his hat on. The only way I see an increased jump in his polls is that he doesn't do something dumb, and he gets to appoint another SCOTUS judge that makes Jersey and his ilk nod in fervent agreement.

This is all last thread's news, but my point was that before the end of their second year of office, Reagan sank down to 37% approval, Clinton to 41%, and Obama to 44%. Trump's approval rating is at 40.5 percent and has been creeping upward. He doesn't need a surge in popularity, just an incremental creep or stability, to shortly be able to claim greater popularity, and not actually be lying (more's the wonder). Also likely to overtake Ford and Carter (both 39% at a soon-to-be-arrived-at point,) but I suppose that's less grist for bragging.

swishnicholson wrote:

swishnicholson wrote:
i'm not sure why I keep picking at this, but Trump is trending to be more popular than Carter (in the next few weeks), Reagan and Clinton (in the next few months) and Obama (before the end of the year.)

Seeming more and more that we got what we wanted (and deserved).

slugsrbad wrote:I don't think that's necessarily true. None of these Presidents started (IIRC) as low as Trump, who really had only up to go, at best, he'll probably reach around the 45% mark of his inauguration w/out another total fuck up. The tax bill isn't selling well, and he has nothing else to really hang his hat on. The only way I see an increased jump in his polls is that he doesn't do something dumb, and he gets to appoint another SCOTUS judge that makes Jersey and his ilk nod in fervent agreement.

This is all last thread's news, but my point was that before the end of their second year of office, Reagan sank down to 37% approval, Clinton to 41%, and Obama to 44%. Trump's approval rating is at 40.5 percent and has been creeping upward. He doesn't need a surge in popularity, just an incremental creep or stability, to shortly be able to claim greater popularity, and not actually be lying (more's the wonder). Also likely to overtake Ford and Carter (both 39% at a soon-to-be-arrived-at point,) but I suppose that's less grist for bragging.

slugsrbad wrote:there were uncounted precincts in Westmoreland which cut into the lead a bit, Lamb up 579 votes w/ the absentees uncounted still

slugsrbad wrote:

slugsrbad wrote:there were uncounted precincts in Westmoreland which cut into the lead a bit, Lamb up 579 votes w/ the absentees uncounted still

CNN guy now saying that Westmoreland vote counts include absentee, but they want to confirm that first.

JUburton wrote:Looks like Lamb is a near lock. Absentees are mostly in Allegheny where Lamb took most and absentees generally favor democrats. Would take a real miracle to lose now.

pacino wrote:

JUburton wrote:Looks like Lamb is a near lock. Absentees are mostly in Allegheny where Lamb took most and absentees generally favor democrats. Would take a real miracle to lose now.

*cups ear, points it westward*

I think I can hear the faint sounds of voter fraud allegations coming over the horizon