It's arraigning men- Hallelujah! (politics)

Re: It's arraigning men- Hallelujah! (politics)

Postby pacino » Wed Nov 15, 2017 11:46:17

JFLNYC wrote:It's not as hard to figure out as it might seem. Corporations (and by extension, their shareholders) along with the super rich (who are the big donors to politicians) will see an enormous tax break. In order for Republicans to pass such a plan without the Democrats, it has to be done in more or less a revenue-neutral way.

So the Republicans have to find a way to fund those huge tax breaks. In order to make it look like they're not taking money from the middle class to give to corporations and the super rich, they can't just increase income taxes on the middle class. They have to be more stealthy than that. So, first, they propose to eliminate or reduce certain tax breaks for the middle and upper-middle class: namely the mortgage interest and SALT deductions. The fact that doing so will reduce home prices in high-tax, high-housing cost states, which are predominantly blue states not only doesn't trouble Republican legislators, it's a bonus. Current estimates are that the average home price will decrease roughly 13%.

But the proposed changes would not be enough to offset lost revenues, so the Republicans had to find additional ways to fund the tax breaks. Where to do so? Why not look at other, predominantly Democrat and politically powerless groups. First, eliminate the deduction for medical expenses. That deduction is used primarily by middle and lower income taxpayers without adequate health insurance and those taxpayers are usually Democrats or they're Republicans who are too ignorant to know they're about to get screwed.

But even that wasn't enough so, using the same reasoning and delighting their donors (who absolutely detest the idea that their tax dollars are being used for healthcare of the poor, shiftless "others") the Senate Republicans are now proposing to repeal the Obamacare individual mandate, which has broad support among Republicans, rich or poor. After all, what could be good about a Federal Government mandate?

What the less fortunate Republican voters fail to understand is that Republican legislators care less about the mandate than they do about about the part of it they never discuss publicly: Without the mandate the government will no longer have to subsidize the health insurance of taxpayers who otherwise can't afford it. Thus, those taxpayers will no longer be able to afford health insurance (and, no, any modest income tax benefits they receive will not cover health insurance costs) and the young and healthy will, in many cases, decide not to purchase health insurance, driving up the cost of health insurance for the older, less healthy. Current estimates are that 13 million people will lose health insurance over the next 10 years and insurance premiums will increase by at least another 10% above previous expectations. As an added bonus, the Republicans will disingenuously claim that premiums are increasing because Obamacare is not working.

Put it all together and it's the perfect GOP plan: Huge tax breaks to their donors and the claim that they're helping middle-class taxpayers, too -- paid for by decreased home prices (and wealth) for the middle class, increased taxes for the upper middle class in blue states and the less fortunate and sick "others" who their donors detest. And, as an added bonus, they get rid of one of the 3 essential legs in the stool supporting Obamacare, thereby setting the stage for them to claim its failing.

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thephan wrote:pacino's posting is one of the more important things revealed in weeks.

Calvinball wrote:Pacino was right.

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Re: It's arraigning men- Hallelujah! (politics)

Postby pacino » Wed Nov 15, 2017 11:47:02

TenuredVulture wrote:
thephan wrote:
pacino wrote:FOX 10/Strategy Research poll Moore 49 Jones 43

Taking a closer look at what are undecided voters are thinking:
• 6% said the allegations made them MORE likely to vote for Roy Moore.
•44% said the allegations made them LESS likely to vote for Roy Moore.
•51% said they were undecided or that the allegations made no difference in their vote.



A poll conducted Nov. 9 - 11, after The Washington Post report, had Moore at 55 to 45. The new Fox 10 poll would indicate a slide. Truth is Alabama.


That recent fox poll seems a bit hinky to me

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thephan wrote:pacino's posting is one of the more important things revealed in weeks.

Calvinball wrote:Pacino was right.

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Re: It's arraigning men- Hallelujah! (politics)

Postby slugsrbad » Wed Nov 15, 2017 11:55:41

slugsrbad wrote:
Donald Trump wrote:Do you think the three UCLA Basketball Players will say thank you President Trump? They were headed for 10 years in jail!


I'm so glad our President is the most petty person in the nation.


Jake Tapper wrote:As everyone knows, the proper way to question if someone for whom you did a solid is ever going to thank you is to wait and wait and wait and fret and complain privately and then hold a dark grudge until you die.
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Re: It's arraigning men- Hallelujah! (politics)

Postby curveball » Wed Nov 15, 2017 12:06:14

Same rant, I wouldn't doubt that the Russians already have all the passwords for the election servers in Alabama.

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Re: It's arraigning men- Hallelujah! (politics)

Postby Phred » Wed Nov 15, 2017 12:07:01

slugsrbad wrote:
Donald Trump wrote:Do you think the three UCLA Basketball Players will say thank you President Trump? They were headed for 10 years in jail!


I'm so glad our President is the most petty person in the nation.


Once again Trump is using his power to influence an investigation. It's a pattern.
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Re: It's arraigning men- Hallelujah! (politics)

Postby jerseyhoya » Wed Nov 15, 2017 12:16:30

Joe Perticone‏ @JoePerticone
So in this confirmation hearing, we're quickly learning that Senate Democrats do not understand Willett's jokes on Twitter. Sen. Leahy is taking issue with Willett tweeting he wanted to marry bacon

Joe Perticone‏ @JoePerticone
This is the tweet Leahy was upset with, suggesting it could interfere in his court decisions. Jfc.

Justice Don Willett @JusticeWillett
I could support recognizing a constitutional right to marry bacon.

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Re: It's arraigning men- Hallelujah! (politics)

Postby thephan » Wed Nov 15, 2017 12:22:14

curveball wrote:Same rant, I wouldn't doubt that the Russians already have all the passwords for the election servers in Alabama.


Sure they do, its Alabama
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Re: It's arraigning men- Hallelujah! (politics)

Postby thephan » Wed Nov 15, 2017 12:24:04

Russia's 'proof' that US helps ISIS is from a video game. Mistakes happen, Kremlin says.


I had no reason to think it was vaguely real, but the reality is just OMFG.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/checkpoint/wp/2017/11/14/russia-is-using-a-video-game-to-prove-the-u-s-is-letting-isis-flee-syria/
Last edited by thephan on Wed Nov 15, 2017 12:38:55, edited 1 time in total.
yawn

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Re: It's arraigning men- Hallelujah! (politics)

Postby Monkeyboy » Wed Nov 15, 2017 12:35:35

curveball wrote:Same rant, I wouldn't doubt that the Russians already have all the passwords for the election servers in Alabama.



sessions probably gave them to the Russian ambassador himself.
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Re: It's arraigning men- Hallelujah! (politics)

Postby pacino » Wed Nov 15, 2017 12:41:23

jerseyhoya wrote:
Joe Perticone‏ @JoePerticone
So in this confirmation hearing, we're quickly learning that Senate Democrats do not understand Willett's jokes on Twitter. Sen. Leahy is taking issue with Willett tweeting he wanted to marry bacon

Joe Perticone‏ @JoePerticone
This is the tweet Leahy was upset with, suggesting it could interfere in his court decisions. Jfc.

Justice Don Willett @JusticeWillett
I could support recognizing a constitutional right to marry bacon.

Surprise surprise, another conservative severely overrating bacon! no doubt bought off by the bacon lobby
thephan wrote:pacino's posting is one of the more important things revealed in weeks.

Calvinball wrote:Pacino was right.

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Re: It's arraigning men- Hallelujah! (politics)

Postby pacino » Wed Nov 15, 2017 12:42:17

Monkeyboy wrote:
curveball wrote:Same rant, I wouldn't doubt that the Russians already have all the passwords for the election servers in Alabama.



sessions probably gave them to the Russian ambassador himself.

I wouldn't worry about this stuff; i'd worry about the completely legalized voter suppression that Alabama has propagated for years and years to make it harder for people to vote.
thephan wrote:pacino's posting is one of the more important things revealed in weeks.

Calvinball wrote:Pacino was right.

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Re: It's arraigning men- Hallelujah! (politics)

Postby CalvinBall » Wed Nov 15, 2017 12:45:04

jerseyhoya wrote:
Joe Perticone‏ @JoePerticone
So in this confirmation hearing, we're quickly learning that Senate Democrats do not understand Willett's jokes on Twitter. Sen. Leahy is taking issue with Willett tweeting he wanted to marry bacon

Joe Perticone‏ @JoePerticone
This is the tweet Leahy was upset with, suggesting it could interfere in his court decisions. Jfc.

Justice Don Willett @JusticeWillett
I could support recognizing a constitutional right to marry bacon.


fwiw, the i love bacon jokes are not funny

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Re: It's arraigning men- Hallelujah! (politics)

Postby RichmondPhilsFan » Wed Nov 15, 2017 12:58:18

CalvinBall wrote:
jerseyhoya wrote:
Joe Perticone‏ @JoePerticone
So in this confirmation hearing, we're quickly learning that Senate Democrats do not understand Willett's jokes on Twitter. Sen. Leahy is taking issue with Willett tweeting he wanted to marry bacon

Joe Perticone‏ @JoePerticone
This is the tweet Leahy was upset with, suggesting it could interfere in his court decisions. Jfc.

Justice Don Willett @JusticeWillett
I could support recognizing a constitutional right to marry bacon.


fwiw, the i love bacon jokes are not funny

Great sex or great bacon. Geez, how do I choose?

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Re: It's arraigning men- Hallelujah! (politics)

Postby traderdave » Wed Nov 15, 2017 13:06:10

Why chose? Have both. At the same time, even.

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Re: It's arraigning men- Hallelujah! (politics)

Postby TenuredVulture » Wed Nov 15, 2017 13:07:34

jerseyhoya wrote:
TenuredVulture wrote:
thephan wrote:
pacino wrote:FOX 10/Strategy Research poll Moore 49 Jones 43

Taking a closer look at what are undecided voters are thinking:
• 6% said the allegations made them MORE likely to vote for Roy Moore.
•44% said the allegations made them LESS likely to vote for Roy Moore.
•51% said they were undecided or that the allegations made no difference in their vote.



A poll conducted Nov. 9 - 11, after The Washington Post report, had Moore at 55 to 45. The new Fox 10 poll would indicate a slide. Truth is Alabama.


That recent fox poll seems a bit hinky to me--first, it's a local fox affiliate that likely contracted with Strategy Research to conduct the poll. The n is 3000 likely voters, which means they had to contact at least 6000 people depending on how they screen for likely voters. And that's a huge, indeed unrealistic number to reach in such a short time unless you're willing to spend a big pile of cash, which it seems a local TV network is unlikely to do, especially when that high an n is completely unnecessary unless you're doing detailed sub group analysis. (The margin of error for 3000 is +/- 2%, for 1000 is something like 3%--it's usually not worth paying 3x the cost for a one point reduction in moe.) So it's likely they're using some other kind of methodology than RDD. The report from the news station that commissioned the poll has no details about its methodology.

It's almost certainly an IVR/robopoll. Probably a quick 10ish question type thing - Are you a registered voter in the state of Alabama? press 1 if you are a registered voter in the state of Alabama, press 2 if you are not a registered voter in the state of Alabama.

Are you likely to vote in the upcoming special Senate election? Press 1 if you are likely to vote in the upcoming special Senate election, Press 2 if you are not likely to vote in the upcoming special Senate election

If the special election for US Senate were held today and the candidates were Doug Jones, the Democrat, and Roy Moore, the Republican, for whom would you vote? Press 1 for Doug Jones, the Democrat, Press 2 for Roy Moore, the Republican, Press 3 if you are undecided

Maybe a prez approval rating ?

Gender/Race/Party affiliation/Age/Education

Marginal cost of more interviews isn't too high. Though there's not any good reason to do 3000 interviews unless you're very interested at looking at demographic subgroups/regional breaks/etc. If they're not releasing that, might as well just do 800 or whatever, even if cost per interview is just a few bucks.


Back when I worked at Eagleton, lots of clients balked at spending those extra few bucks. (Robo polling wasn't really a thing in those days.) Even if it's $2 per extra interview, that's adding $4000 to the cost for no reason (and it's actually probably more than that because there's a likely voter screen in there so you're interviewing a lot more than 3000 people to get that n size.

I just don't see any scenario where a local TV news station is going to be doing any kind of detailed sub group analysis.
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Re: It's arraigning men- Hallelujah! (politics)

Postby CalvinBall » Wed Nov 15, 2017 13:25:02

pretty bonkers Dems are winning in places like oklahoma

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2017/1 ... on-Tuesday

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Re: It's arraigning men- Hallelujah! (politics)

Postby RichmondPhilsFan » Wed Nov 15, 2017 13:28:20

traderdave wrote:Why chose? Have both. At the same time, even.

If you're married to the bacon, then um...

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Re: It's arraigning men- Hallelujah! (politics)

Postby jerseyhoya » Wed Nov 15, 2017 13:35:19

Image

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Re: It's arraigning men- Hallelujah! (politics)

Postby thephan » Wed Nov 15, 2017 13:35:35

Six House Democrats on Wednesday launched the latest official effort to oust President Trump, introducing five new articles of impeachment revolving around the central theme that the president is a danger to the country.


What a waste of time.
yawn

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Re: It's arraigning men- Hallelujah! (politics)

Postby thephan » Wed Nov 15, 2017 13:41:38

13 tweets so far from chief twit.
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