Still blows my mind that Moyer's awful deal is gonna harpoon the next 10 years for this franchise

Woody wrote:Timmy K. saying "outside chance" that Drabek is headed to Toronto. So..... basically we know jack $#@!

FOR FUCK'S SAKE, YOU GODDAMN WORTHLESS TALKING HEADS. WAIT TIL THE DEAL IS COMPLETE OR AT LEAST ADMIT YOU'RE NOT SURE WHO IS HEADING WHERE AND STOP MAKING GRAPHICS THAT SHOW EVERY PHILLIES PROSPECT AND CLIFF LEE LEAVING IN A FIREY STORM OF SHIT INFESTED DEALSEALFKSDJFKSDHFJSHBJ

If any of these absurd deals are true, then Ruben is a complete fucking nutcase. But if they're not true, it's ridiculous how this shit gets going.

MIDGET KEN: I think Philly might trade Lee.

Stark: My source says the Phillies are definitely trading Lee.

Heyman: I hear from two sources the Phillies are trading Lee.

Some Toronto d-bag: I have multiple sources saying the Phillies are trading Lee AND Drabek.

Some Seattle shit head: I've got at least four sources saying the Phillies are trading Lee to the Mariners and we're sending back some garbage prospects.

Tim Kurkjian: Phillies are definitely trading Lee AND Drabek. And by definitely, I mean maybe Lee. Also, maybe Happ instead of Drabek.

What's still blowing my mind as well is this idea that they "couldn't give Blanton away". Really? A guy in the top 20 in quality starts last year with a very reasonable contract.

I mean far more unreliable pitchers get 3 year/ 21 million dollar contracts like it's no big deal. If Blanton were a FA, GMs would be chomping at the bit to overpay him.

it's 2 a.m. The odds of a deal being finalized between now and and 9 a.m. are pretty slim. I'm heading to bed and hoping that I wake up to find more reasonable trade news.

I don't have anything new to add to the dialogue here; there are a lot of strong pitchers out right now and while Halliday is a great pitcher, he's not worth giving up Lee and Drabek. I just can't believe that this deal is going to happen. It's probably a case of talking heads wanting to say SOMETHING so they're spouting bullcrap at this point.

Also, FWIW, the names they list on the ESPN.com video are the following (which Stark said is not a done deal):

Phi gets: Halladay, 2 Mariners Prospects

Sea gets: Lee

Tor gets: Aumont, d'Arnaud, 1 other Phillies prospect

So, I don't know where people (like that moron Salisbury) are getting the idea that we're trading Brown, Drabek, etc

Seattle should be the only ones paying out the nose in this deal. What's to stop us from offering Lee up to Texas, who finished 2 games ahead of them last year? Why couldn't we get at least enough from Seattle to get Halladay? That would be the ideal scenario. Why are we trading our prospects and Lee?

My favorite part of this trade is during next year's game threads when FTN says "Well at least we have Aumont and Gillies" every time Halladay lets the other team get within 2 runs

philliesphhan wrote:Also, FWIW, the names they list on the ESPN.com video are the following (which Stark said is not a done deal):

Phi gets: Halladay, 2 Mariners Prospects

Sea gets: Lee

Tor gets: Aumont, d'Arnaud, 1 other Phillies prospect

So, I don't know where people (like that moron Salisbury) are getting the idea that we're trading Brown, Drabek, etc

Just to chime in, latest ESPN rumor here at 3:41 am is as follows;

Sea gets- Lee
Tor gets- Taylor, DArnaud, and HAPP OR DRABEK
Phi gets- Halladay, Aumont and another prospect (Gilles maybe?)

Any chance the lack of finalization is due to bickering over Happ vs Drabek?

I love Happ and all, but if we some how keep Drabek, Brown and get Aumont to boot with Halladay, this is has gotta be a win for us I believe! Thoughts?

ucancallmedavis wrote:

philliesphhan wrote:Also, FWIW, the names they list on the ESPN.com video are the following (which Stark said is not a done deal):

Phi gets: Halladay, 2 Mariners Prospects

Sea gets: Lee

Tor gets: Aumont, d'Arnaud, 1 other Phillies prospect

So, I don't know where people (like that moron Salisbury) are getting the idea that we're trading Brown, Drabek, etc

Just to chime in, latest ESPN rumor here at 3:41 am is as follows;

Sea gets- Lee
Tor gets- Taylor, DArnaud, and HAPP OR DRABEK
Phi gets- Halladay, Aumont and another prospect (Gilles maybe?)

Any chance the lack of finalization is due to bickering over Happ vs Drabek?

I love Happ and all, but if we some how keep Drabek, Brown and get Aumont to boot with Halladay, this is has gotta be a win for us I believe! Thoughts?

Not if we're trading Lee to Seattle. Look at that trade again. Even with Happ instead, that trade sucks.

We give up: Lee, Happ, Taylor, and D'Arnaud
Seattle gives: Aumont and Gillies
Toronto gives up: Halladay

So we're trading a top 10 pitcher, a rookie of the year candidate with plenty of controllable years, a top 25 prospect, and a promising catcher for a top 3 pitcher.

Seattle is trading a top 100 prospect and a mid-tier prospect for a top 10 pitcher.

Something just does not add up here.

yeah, that wouldn't make sense just from a rotation standpoint.

If there was no trade at all, the rotation would be Lee, Hamels, Blanton, Happ, whoever.

Drabek is too valuable and Happ is in the rotation. You can't trade 2/5th of the rotation if part of the 2 is the best part. Halladay, Hamels, Blanton, ?, ?

Newest update; 21 minutes ago this article went up
http://www.thestar.com/sports/baseball/ ... right-move

it has Tor getting; Aumont and Saunders from SEA, and Happ from PHI
Phi getting; Halladay and I guess it implies Gilles
and Sea getting; Lee and possibly Taylor???

Kind of a muddled article, but is the newest one, this guy Griffin seems confident in his knowledge but doesnt cite any sources?

Rumours became rampant on Monday of a three-way deal, the kind of intricate transaction Anthopoulos was hot to trot for at the winter meetings. In any case, the key for the Jays would be the acquisition of Happ for the present and Aumont for the future. A third player may come from the Mariners because the outfielder the Jays coveted, Philadelphia's Domonic Brown, was almost untouchable in negotiations this summer. Toronto would prefer Michael Taylor, but he may be moved to the M's instead.

No source for this claim either in article

EDIT: Or maybe it actually implies Gilles to Jays instead? Who else would we get then if Aumont and Gilles are Jay bound after all?

dajafi wrote:The only clear "win" is having Halladay at what seems like a team-friendly contract beyond 2010.

Having him pitch for your great team for the next several years, yeah. Roy Halladay. Kind of a big deal.

http://www.philly.com/philly/sports/79287292.html

I appreciate Phil Sheridens optimism, but I think he is overly selling this trade in our favor.

Alas, in the real world there are choices to make. Amaro is not working with an unlimited payroll. And he can't just make Lee accept a long-term extension of his current contract, which expires after next season. So the choice is really between one more season of Cliff Lee or four seasons of Roy Halladay.

Back it up a bit and Amaro could be getting three unforgettable months of Lee and four years of Halladay - plus outfielder Ben Francisco and a prospect to be named - in exchange for a handful of unproven minor-leaguers. Even if the trade winds up including Kyle Drabek, it makes sense.

Amaro is able to do this because he's pretty smart, and also because the Phillies are now in position to take advantage of losing organizations forced to part with premier players. If that makes you feel a bit guilty, consider it karmic payback for the days the Phillies had to unload the likes of Curt Schilling and Scott Rolen.

[/quote]

went to bed optimistic.
wake up. see current trade details. panic....
then i start writing this despairing post and wind up convincing myself it's still a good deal

drabek/happ added to deal since i went to bed. quality of seattle prospects returned dropped.
adding happ makes it net rotation downgrade in 2010.... that would be way beyond stupid. i'm going to hope/pray/assume it's drabek
adding drabek (who was likely to get some starts in 2010) makes it a barely-better than lateral move in 2010, given that halladay really is better than lee, and that it looks like the dollar cost will be the same.

still sounds like halladay is signing a very affordable extension for a pitcher of his caliber.

also looks like we can assume lee would not re-up with the phils

now lets put the total deal together.

paid = carrasco+donald+marson+knapp+d'arnaud+taylor+drabek
received = lee getting us into the world series, francisco, halladay in 2010, 2 ranked-but-suspect prospects, guaranteed signing of halladay for 2011-13 for a good price, one unknown prospect. let's assume the 3rd prospect is bottom-half-of-top-20.

i think the seattle prospects plus francisco right now roughly equal carrasco+d'arnaud+marson. that makes the net trade donald+knapp+taylor+drabek for lee09/halladay10 with a guaranteed extension.


without the new trade, it would have been
carrasco+donald+ marson+knapp for lee09/10+francisco
francisco roughly equals marson so the net is
carrasco+donald+knapp for lee09/10+(draft picks or sign halladay)

i think the net of the two trades together is a good deal. we keep our top prospect (brown) and get an affordable 1.5 seasons of cy-young pitching plus a guaranteed extension.

whether or not the new trade alone is a good deal comes down to the question:
is the (halladay10-lee10 difference) + (2011-13 halladay certainty) of greater or lesser value than (taylor+drabek-carrasco)+(draft picks / halladay uncertainty)? i could simplify it further by assuming drabek-carrasco = halladay - lee. then it's just: are taylor and the lee draft picks worth halladay certainty?

this all breaks down if i am badly undervaluing our non-top-3 prospects relative to franscisco and the guys we are getting from seattle. am i?

Monkeyboy wrote:Yeh, yesterday I was arguing that I wasn't sure if we should trade prospects to end up with Halladay, Lee, and Hamels because I was afraid it would destroy our depth. Today, our depth is shot to hell and we only have 2 of the 3 top pitchers. What a difference a day makes, 24 little hours.

there is no evidence of any of this happening. I realise you do not rate amaro, and firmly believe he wants halladay so bad that he'll wreck our franchise, but previous behaviour suggests that he actively avoids taking such decisions. Calm the fuck down. You are not idly speculating. You are actively indulging in misery. It is of no analytical use. Nor is it funny.

zOMG, Dajafi hates me. One of our most tolerant board members has run out of patience.

I'm sure I've said this before, but you have paper-thin skin. Y'all need to dip yourself in White spirits or something to toughen it up. There are a number of people indulging in the same behaviour. I can empathise with dajafi. the indulgent miserablists have fucked my head too. I wish all of you would calm the fuck down.

short story:
if it's drabek, i can convince myself this is a net positive trade with a long and complicated chain of logic and assumptions).
if it's happ, i can't, thanks to halladay+kendrick/moyer being worse than lee+happ in 2010. making us worse in 2010 would be indefensible.

I just want them to call Texas. They've been dying to give up prospects for an ace. Halladay didn't want to go there and the Marlins said no to their offer of Feliz and Smoak for Johnson. See what they want to give us for Lee, it is guaranteed to be more than what Seattle is giving. The Mariners need to get taken out of this trade.

This apparently is the final piece of the puzzle. Juan Ramirez is the third player.

12:45am: Jason Churchill of Prospect Insider has had this info for quite a while today - the Phillies will get Aumont, Gillies, and righty Juan Ramirez from Seattle.

The one aspect of the deal I like is that I think Rube is a stupid jack-azz and if this deal causes him to lose the support of the board, I will like that.

SQUIRE

IF Taylor is included in this deal, who plays RF when Jayson Werth leaves for Jason Bay type money (or whatever players with 35+ HR power and 20+ SB speed get) after 2010?