dajafi wrote:

FTN wrote:

CalvinBall wrote:Is Halladay-Lee-Hamels-2 Other Guys better than Lee-Hamels-Happ-Blanton-1 Other Guy?

Yes.

I'm not as sure, and I'm pretty sure it isn't when you consider costs.

That's a devastating front three, no question about it. But we have to get through the 162 game grind before you can really unleash them in October. If you back up the big three with '09 Moyer and '08 Kendrick, that's two games of every five where you'll have to outslug the opposition and drain the bullpen. I'm convinced the reason we won in '08 was because all five starters scarfed innings down the stretch: Hamels, Myers, Blanton and Moyer were all around or over 200 IP, and they were all league-average or better.

Maybe Kendrick's 2009 improvement was real. Maybe Moyer can give you something. Maybe Carpenter or Bastardo or a scrap-heap NRI guy turns out to be a decent #5. Maybe Drabek is ready by July to give you some innings. But I'd be more comfortable counting on those maybes to add up to one rotation spot than two.

Would I make the Happ/Brown for Halladay deal, with a separate dump of Blanton? It depends on what Cupcakes brings back, but my guess is actually no.

I can't be concerned over the back end of the rotation when you have so many guys capable of stepping in should somebody fail. It's likely Pedro would come back if we get this "Big Three" locked in. Guess it becomes a question of how much you trust Pedro over a full season. I trust him. Then you just have to get replacement level work from one of Moyer or Kendrick. If Drabek's ready then fine, but I'm in no rush to put him in the Bigs this year. Let him work in AAA, monitor his innings, September call-up as a reliever.

Soren wrote:

Houshphandzadeh wrote:What's our playoff rotation?

Doc
Lee
Hamels
Doc
Lee
Docmels

Please.

Try Lee-Halladay-Hamels-Lee-Halladay. And the only way it even goes 5 is if we're throwing 2009 Hamels and not 2008 Hamels.

Werthless wrote:I'm resisting the strong mental urge to overvalue our prospects. Drabek is not a sure thing. Brown is too raw. Taylor has a weird swing. Happ is mediocre and sure to regress. Odds are Gose won't make the bigs at all.

It's a good instinct, but here I'm pretty sure you're undervaluing them.

I think we're getting a little too worked up. Remember the famous words

lowcountry wrote:

Soren wrote:

Houshphandzadeh wrote:What's our playoff rotation?

Doc
Lee
Hamels
Doc
Lee
Docmels

Please.

Try Lee-Halladay-Hamels-Lee-Halladay. And the only way it even goes 5 is if we're throwing 2009 Hamels and not 2008 Hamels.

Its not a huge difference IMO flipping between Doc/Lee 1 and 2. I'm assuming it would be determined based on matchups/performance up to that point. Not seeing what Hamels has to do with it really.

joe table wrote:I think we're getting a little too worked up. Remember the famous words

Pretty please, with sugar on top...?

I think you guys might be badly underestimating Pedro's price tag. If he wants to pitch the full year, after what he did for us down the stretch, it could cost about as much as Blanton probably will. And even if he agrees to a deal for "just" $5 million, that's probably too rich for the Phils with Halladay.

Nah the other ones

have we turned into the yankees?

Halladay, Lee and Hamels will start a combined 100 games or so. They're going to give you a chance to win at least 80% of those games. You won't win 80% of those games, for various reasons, but they put you in an ideal position.

The dropoff from Blanton to Pedro is not as steep as the dropoff from Halladay to Happ, which is essentially what we're talking about. Halladay is a legit, bonafide #1. In the NL, I'd expect him to put up an ERA in the 2.65-3.00 range. I expect Happ's ERA to be in the 4.35-5.25 range in 2010. Blanton is a 3.90-4.35 ERA type of guy. Pedro, over a full season, is going to have his share of clunkers where he just doesn't have it, or he might get hurt. But he's capable of putting up an ERA of 4.50. The dropoff from Blanton to that is pretty small.

I'd rather the Phillies trade Happ for Halladay, then bring in a bunch of fliers to compete for the last spot. Maybe thats why they are interested in Smoltz. Maybe they'd look at Sheets. Maybe they find a Rodrigo Lopez type who can give you 8 good starts at #5 till Moyer is healthy. Maybe Moyer gives you a 4.75 ERA for a few months.

The Phillies offense is good enough to win their share of slugfests. But they're not going to need to score 9 runs a game with the front 3 starting.

CalvinBall wrote:I agree with this. Halladay is awesome, no doubt. But having to give up Blanton and having two questionable starters worries me.

I completely agree with this. The Phillies 2010 playoff rotation would be the $#@!, but the regular season rotation's overall strength wouldn't be that great. But with Blanton as your #4, who cares who the 5th starter is? If they are already willing to take on Halladay, but trade Blanton, that's only a net gain of around 8 mil. For another 8 mil, you put all the chips in your 2010 basket by keeping Blanton. Plus, what could you fetch for Blanton, who will be a FA next year (type B presumably?), in a trade? I'd rather try to trade Victorino, who is still controllable past next season, for bullpen help and call up Taylor.

Just saw Halladay coming out of The Dolphin

sent from my G1

dajafi wrote:

Werthless wrote:I'm resisting the strong mental urge to overvalue our prospects. Drabek is not a sure thing. Brown is too raw. Taylor has a weird swing. Happ is mediocre and sure to regress. Odds are Gose won't make the bigs at all.

It's a good instinct, but here I'm pretty sure you're undervaluing them.

What I mean is that if we trade some of them, I'm doing some mental gymnastics to convince myself it was a good deal. Right now, I don't even know what the deal is, but I'm already worried it will be too much.

dajafi wrote:I think you guys might be badly underestimating Pedro's price tag. If he wants to pitch the full year, after what he did for us down the stretch, it could cost about as much as Blanton probably will. And even if he agrees to a deal for "just" $5 million, that's probably too rich for the Phils with Halladay.

If we have freakin Halladay AND Lee, I bet Pedro will be willing to sign for less. Dude is rich; he wants to win.

what's Heman twitter saying

First off, we're gonna have a "questionable starter" at #5 either way. And I wouldn't assume so strongly the Jays would even want Happ. But even if he and Blanton do go, yeah, Halladay is well worth it. We're now a late-October team.

Either way you can't trade Drabek. If they aren't going to lock up Roy, then it would be just a preposterous cost even for a HOF pitcher. We don't need to make CC-Milwaukee type moves with this team. Even if they would pay Roy, the amount of money it's going to cost to pay Roy (top market AAV over multi years) would very likely be good enough to keep Lee from testing FA IMO, meaning they could keep Drabek, Cole and Lee around through 2012 at the earliest (Drabek and Lee likley considerably longer). To me that trio for several years is worth more than Halladay, Lee and Cole for 2010 but just Cole and Halladay onwards

And yes I know Drabek is not a sure thing but he's still an incredibly rare, valuable commodity....near big league ready, high ceiling controllable starter. They are the most precious commodities in baseball IMO, least fungible commodities IMO. And I am also aware that some people believe Roy would cost considerably less than Lee in a prospective extension, but I'll just have to disagree on that hypothetical

Werthless wrote:

dajafi wrote:

Werthless wrote:I'm resisting the strong mental urge to overvalue our prospects. Drabek is not a sure thing. Brown is too raw. Taylor has a weird swing. Happ is mediocre and sure to regress. Odds are Gose won't make the bigs at all.

It's a good instinct, but here I'm pretty sure you're undervaluing them.

What I mean is that if we trade some of them, I'm doing some mental gymnastics to convince myself it was a good deal. Right now, I don't even know what the deal is, but I'm already worried it will be too much.

Oh

Psychologically sound. I'll do that too...

joe table wrote:And yes I know Drabek is not a sure thing but he's still an incredibly rare, valuable commodity....near big league ready, high ceiling controllable starter. They are the most precious commodities in baseball IMO, least fungible commodities IMO. And I am also aware that some people believe Roy would cost considerably less than Lee in a prospective extension, but I'll just have to disagree on that hypothetical

I'm trying to decide if I'd rather deal Happ/Brown, or Drabek straight up--assuming Toronto would do that. That way you at least keep Happ as the #4, plus you have Brown ready to replace Werth or Ibanez in a year or two. But Drabek is a pretty big deal, for the reasons you give.