FTN wrote:Halladay, Lee and Hamels will start a combined 100 games or so. They're going to give you a chance to win at least 80% of those games. You won't win 80% of those games, for various reasons, but they put you in an ideal position.

The dropoff from Blanton to Pedro is not as steep as the dropoff from Halladay to Happ, which is essentially what we're talking about. Halladay is a legit, bonafide #1. In the NL, I'd expect him to put up an ERA in the 2.65-3.00 range. I expect Happ's ERA to be in the 4.35-5.25 range in 2010. Blanton is a 3.90-4.35 ERA type of guy. Pedro, over a full season, is going to have his share of clunkers where he just doesn't have it, or he might get hurt. But he's capable of putting up an ERA of 4.50. The dropoff from Blanton to that is pretty small.

I'd rather the Phillies trade Happ for Halladay, then bring in a bunch of fliers to compete for the last spot. Maybe thats why they are interested in Smoltz. Maybe they'd look at Sheets. Maybe they find a Rodrigo Lopez type who can give you 8 good starts at #5 till Moyer is healthy. Maybe Moyer gives you a 4.75 ERA for a few months.

The Phillies offense is good enough to win their share of slugfests. But they're not going to need to score 9 runs a game with the front 3 starting.

Werthless wrote:

FTN wrote:Halladay, Lee and Hamels will start a combined 100 games or so. They're going to give you a chance to win at least 80% of those games. You won't win 80% of those games, for various reasons, but they put you in an ideal position.

The dropoff from Blanton to Pedro is not as steep as the dropoff from Halladay to Happ, which is essentially what we're talking about. Halladay is a legit, bonafide #1. In the NL, I'd expect him to put up an ERA in the 2.65-3.00 range. I expect Happ's ERA to be in the 4.35-5.25 range in 2010. Blanton is a 3.90-4.35 ERA type of guy. Pedro, over a full season, is going to have his share of clunkers where he just doesn't have it, or he might get hurt. But he's capable of putting up an ERA of 4.50. The dropoff from Blanton to that is pretty small.

I'd rather the Phillies trade Happ for Halladay, then bring in a bunch of fliers to compete for the last spot. Maybe thats why they are interested in Smoltz. Maybe they'd look at Sheets. Maybe they find a Rodrigo Lopez type who can give you 8 good starts at #5 till Moyer is healthy. Maybe Moyer gives you a 4.75 ERA for a few months.

The Phillies offense is good enough to win their share of slugfests. But they're not going to need to score 9 runs a game with the front 3 starting.

Talk about pulling stuff out of nowhere. Top 3 give us a chance to win 80% of our games? Who cares what that means? Blanton gives us a chance 75% of games... so what?

Happ ERA between 4.35 and 5.25? Care to bet on that range?

Just giving you a hard time. But I'm serious on the Happ ERA bet.

traderdave wrote:

Werthless wrote:

FTN wrote:Halladay, Lee and Hamels will start a combined 100 games or so. They're going to give you a chance to win at least 80% of those games. You won't win 80% of those games, for various reasons, but they put you in an ideal position.

The dropoff from Blanton to Pedro is not as steep as the dropoff from Halladay to Happ, which is essentially what we're talking about. Halladay is a legit, bonafide #1. In the NL, I'd expect him to put up an ERA in the 2.65-3.00 range. I expect Happ's ERA to be in the 4.35-5.25 range in 2010. Blanton is a 3.90-4.35 ERA type of guy. Pedro, over a full season, is going to have his share of clunkers where he just doesn't have it, or he might get hurt. But he's capable of putting up an ERA of 4.50. The dropoff from Blanton to that is pretty small.

I'd rather the Phillies trade Happ for Halladay, then bring in a bunch of fliers to compete for the last spot. Maybe thats why they are interested in Smoltz. Maybe they'd look at Sheets. Maybe they find a Rodrigo Lopez type who can give you 8 good starts at #5 till Moyer is healthy. Maybe Moyer gives you a 4.75 ERA for a few months.

The Phillies offense is good enough to win their share of slugfests. But they're not going to need to score 9 runs a game with the front 3 starting.

Talk about pulling stuff out of nowhere. Top 3 give us a chance to win 80% of our games? Who cares what that means? Blanton gives us a chance 75% of games... so what?

Happ ERA between 4.35 and 5.25? Care to bet on that range?

Just giving you a hard time. But I'm serious on the Happ ERA bet.

You can drive a truck through that range. You think Happ does better than 4.35, W?

Werthless wrote:Ah, your post suggests that your over-under on Happ's ERA is around 4.80 (midpoint of 4.35-5.25)
I'll take under 4.50, and you take over, and we have a deal.

Trent Steele wrote:I'm shocked at some of the reactions here.

If you want to tell me that you don't want to trade for Halladay because it guts the farm system, OK. I disagree, but OK.

But the idea that you don't want to trade for Halladay because you may have weak 4 & 5 spots in the rotation is absolutely nuts.

1.) Moyer is in the rotation anyway. So you're really only talking about 1 spot difference.

2.) Happ is so clearly due for a correction, it's ridiculous. I would unload him as fast as I could if Toronto actually wanted him, which I find absurd.

3.) Blanton is a solid pitcher who is leaving in FA anyway after this year. So, basically, we're worried about replacing a a 105 ERA+ pitcher, ffs (who, btw, had the highest percentage of flyballs turned into outs in MLB; good luck with that trick in 2010).

Get Halladay. Worry about the other stuff later.

Werthless wrote:Trent, you're right. We can scoop up Jason Marquis to be our 4th starter.

Trent Steele wrote:

Werthless wrote:Trent, you're right. We can scoop up Jason Marquis to be our 4th starter.

Happ had a 4.33 FIP last year.

Blanton had a 4.45 FIP last year.

Marquis had a 4.10 FIP last year.

joe table wrote:

Trent Steele wrote:

Werthless wrote:Trent, you're right. We can scoop up Jason Marquis to be our 4th starter.

Happ had a 4.33 FIP last year.

Blanton had a 4.45 FIP last year.

Marquis had a 4.10 FIP last year.

xFIP is a lot kinder to Joe though, to be fair. Blanton did have an unusual (and as it turns out, unsustainable for the rest of the year) HRs allowed early on in the season

Blanton xFIP: 4.07
Marquis xFIP: 4.41
Happ xFIP: 4.49

Blanton is the best of the three for my money, but not vastly better than either of the others, I would agree

Trent Steele wrote:

Werthless wrote:Trent, you're right. We can scoop up Jason Marquis to be our 4th starter.

Happ had a 4.33 FIP last year.

Blanton had a 4.45 FIP last year.

Marquis had a 4.10 FIP last year.

Trent Steele wrote:

joe table wrote:

Trent Steele wrote:

Werthless wrote:Trent, you're right. We can scoop up Jason Marquis to be our 4th starter.

Happ had a 4.33 FIP last year.

Blanton had a 4.45 FIP last year.

Marquis had a 4.10 FIP last year.

xFIP is a lot kinder to Joe though, to be fair. Blanton did have an unusual (and as it turns out, unsustainable for the rest of the year) HRs allowed early on in the season

Blanton xFIP: 4.07
Marquis xFIP: 4.41
Happ xFIP: 4.49

Blanton is the best of the three for my money, but not vastly better than either of the others, I would agree

Look, Marquis blows and I'd rather eat a turd than watch him pitch here for a year. That said, the loss of Blanton and Happ would not be difficult to overcome for a team that: (1) has the best offense in the NL and (2) throws Halladay/Lee/Hamels 60% of the time.

For god's sake, Moyer is terrible and they won 50% of his starts last year.