Woody wrote:It's Roy Halladay guys. You can't just offer Drabek and a bucket of shoes and expect this to get done. I understand we'd all like to keep the young players that won't play in the majors until they're approaching 30 anyway, but jeez

I'm OK with Drabek & Happ in the deal. It's the next part or two that I struggle with. I don't want to include Brown but the devil's advocate in me says then you limit the deal to only 3 players and while it might be your 3 most valuable chips, keeping the remainder keeps the pharm stronger. Is Brown worth more than say Donald & Marson (both who could help the club next season)? I'm not sure and that's what drives me nuts. I'm resigned to Drabek not being on the Phils whether he's dealt for Halladay or Lee.

Woody wrote:It's Roy Halladay guys. You can't just offer Drabek and a bucket of shoes and expect this to get done. I understand we'd all like to keep the young players that won't play in the majors until they're approaching 30 anyway, but jeez

So Drabek and Happ and any 2 prospects not named Taylor, Brown or Knapp doesn't get it done isn't a fair offer in your opinion?

Woody wrote:It's Roy Halladay guys. You can't just offer Drabek and a bucket of shoes and expect this to get done. I understand we'd all like to keep the young players that won't play in the majors until they're approaching 30 anyway, but jeez

I've yet to see anyone suggest trading Drabek and "a bucket of shoes".

i have several shoes to donate if it will get this done

It doesn't matter if I think it's fair. They clearly want 2 top players, and I'd rather give up Drabek and Brown/Taylor than watch him go to the Red Sox for a package would could have beaten. Now is the time. They're not canceling the draft and this is why you have a scouting department

I'm going to paraphrase the point Trent made a couple of days ago.

This past off-season, if you were offered Halladay for Drabek, Happ & Brown you would have JUMPED (capitalized because Trent did so) at it. JUMPED (repeated because Trent did so). What's happened over the last few months is that the perceived value of those guys has skyrocketed. But prospects are like speculative stocks: They go up and down rapidly. A few bad starts here, some shoulder fatigue there, a couple of months struggling to hit a slider at a new level, and all of a sudden they have a lot less value.

The Phils are playing a game they've won. Through a combination of skill and luck, the value of 3 prospects -- who wouldn't have gotten you a whole lot in return a few months ago -- will now get you one of top pitchers in all of baseball, who's got a year and a half left on his contract, wants to play here, will waive his NTC to do so and isn't insisting that you extend his contract.

This is the time to stop playing the game, cash in your winnings and celebrate.

Woody wrote:It doesn't matter if I think it's fair. They clearly want 2 top players, and I'd rather give up Drabek and Brown/Taylor than watch him go to the Red Sox for a package would could have beaten. Now is the time. They're not canceling the draft and this is why you have a scouting department

But the scouting department thinks Brown is Willie Mays and Drabek is Tom Seaver!

Werthless wrote:

Woody wrote:It doesn't matter if I think it's fair. They clearly want 2 top players, and I'd rather give up Drabek and Brown/Taylor than watch him go to the Red Sox for a package would could have beaten. Now is the time. They're not canceling the draft and this is why you have a scouting department

But the scouting department thinks Brown is Willie Mays and Drabek is Tom Seaver!

Well, unless those guys are like Benjamin Button, I wouldn't want them.

Werthless wrote:

Woody wrote:It doesn't matter if I think it's fair. They clearly want 2 top players, and I'd rather give up Drabek and Brown/Taylor than watch him go to the Red Sox for a package would could have beaten. Now is the time. They're not canceling the draft and this is why you have a scouting department

But the scouting department thinks Brown is Willie Mays and Drabek is Tom Seaver!

that's why we keep them drunk and traveling full-time

Woody wrote:It doesn't matter if I think it's fair. They clearly want 2 top players

Absolutely. And Drabek and Happ are two top players. I know the opinion of Happ going forward isn't too great around here, but a young, cheap pitcher who has already had excellent results in the majors is a big time trade chip.

If he's that valuable you wouldn't want to trade him instead of Brown/Taylor. He's a mid rotation starter.

Woody is right. It is Roy Halladay people. Get it together.

New York Post - A baseball executive doesn't believe that the trade deadline will pass without the Phillies having added a major arm to their rotation.

"We will not get to Friday at 4 p.m. [the deadline] and the Phillies have not added [Roy] Halladay, [Cliff] Lee or [Jarrod] Washburn," one American League executive told The New York Post.

The Phillies have been trying to get Halladay, but talks with the Blue Jays have slowed. Lee is considered their next target, but they could turn their attention to Washburn if Cleveland requests too much in return

[url=http://www.realgmbaseball.com/src_wiretap_archives/15971/20090728/exec_phillies_will_get_halladay_lee_or_washburn/]
link[/url]

Woody wrote:If he's that valuable you wouldn't want to trade him instead of Brown/Taylor. He's a mid rotation starter.

I'd be fine with a trade of Drabek and Brown/Taylor plus second tier guys. I'd prefer to keep Happ if posible, just like I'd prefer to keep Drabek if possible. But Happ seems like the one piece that both the Jays want and the Phils are willing to give up, so it's probably pointless to picture a deal that doesn't involve him.

JFLNYC wrote:Well, unless those guys are like Benjamin Button, I wouldn't want them.

They wouldn't do us much good if they are 12 years old when the get to the show

I know there are some who, as a matter of principle, don't want to give the Jays what they originally asked for (Drabek/Happ/Brown). But it's silly to lose a fantastic opportunity over a point of principle.

A few days ago I related the true story of a $125MM deal lost by one party and won by another because the latter because they agreed to pay the asking price without haggling. They realized that the asset was worth that and more to them -- and they were vindicated when they sold it 2 1/2 years later for $313MM.

In a situation like this, you've got to keep you eye on the prize and tune out all the extraneous noise, e.g., ego, posturing,etc.

Think of it this way: Do you really want to look back at this moment and say: "Well, we didn't get Halladay, but we sure showed Riccardi that we wouldn't give in to his offer?" That's not even cold comfort.

JFLNYC wrote:I'm going to paraphrase the point Trent made a couple of days ago.

This past off-season, if you were offered Halladay for Drabek, Happ & Brown you would have JUMPED (capitalized because Trent did so) at it. JUMPED (repeated because Trent did so). What's happened over the last few months is that the perceived value of those guys has skyrocketed. But prospects are like speculative stocks: They go up and down rapidly. A few bad starts here, some shoulder fatigue there, a couple of months struggling to hit a slider at a new level, and all of a sudden they have a lot less value.

The Phils are playing a game they've won. Through a combination of skill and luck, the value of 3 prospects -- who wouldn't have gotten you a whole lot in return a few months ago -- will now get you one of top pitchers in all of baseball, who's got a year and a half left on his contract, wants to play here, will waive his NTC to do so and isn't insisting that you extend his contract.

This is the time to stop playing the game, cash in your winnings and celebrate.

Guys, you're oversimplifying to make your argument. Yes, young kids are fluid, as is prospect status, but you simply can't ignore 3 months of information. Drabek is simply worth more than he was previously (Happ and Brown, debateably not). This isn't a particularly hard call. You keep talking about speculative stocks, if I buy a stock at 5 bucks, and it goes up to 50 bucks, I don't sell it to you for 25 dollars just because I would have been thrilled with a 5x return when I bought the thing. I will not debate this though because it's such a bad analogy.

If you want to reiterate how we're trading uncertain goods for a proven commodity, that's an argument with traction.

Woody wrote:It doesn't matter if I think it's fair. They clearly want 2 top players, and I'd rather give up Drabek and Brown/Taylor than watch him go to the Red Sox for a package would could have beaten. Now is the time. They're not canceling the draft and this is why you have a scouting department

I agree with this. Get it done. I never want to not win the World Series ever again.

Didn't I? wrote:I never want to not win the World Series ever again.

I don't think that this isn't the way we should be looking at it, no?

Cataldi had Steve Simmons from one of the Toronto papers on today. Shockingly, it was an informative segment.

-Said he thinks Halladay to the Phils gets done........makes too much sense for both teams

-Happ/Drabek/Brown was a smart starting point for the Jays, but won't be a take it or leave it offer

-Halladay's value will never be higher........Jays know that and they almost have to deal him

-Basically painted Riccardi as the one unreasonable person involved, but said he's not ultimately in charge. Said there's a whole group who will make the final decision with Paul Beeston being the main figure

-Thinks they will make the deal then fire Riccardi and make him the fall guy

-Said Gillick and Beeston are best friends and constantly talk. Said Gillick has been involved in the discussions

-Said Rolen is a complete jerk off the field and screwed over a TV reporter on a story the other day