At this point, I dont care about trading Drabek and Happ. Rube's job is to find a way to not include Brown. I don't know if that's possible without without simply switching Taylor in. Either way, he has to get this done.

Drabek, Taylor, and two others is STILL better than anything anyone else has to offer, lest we forget. It shouldn't take more than the both of them plus two second tier prospects.

And Halladay wants to be a Phillies. Rube's holding all the cards.

ek wrote:Blair column

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/sports/i ... le1230982/

Why would Halladay conspire to hurt the team he is about to be traded to?

HillMD wrote:35 year old man in a basement somewhere, wearing boxers with mini battleships embroidered upon them, and nothing in front of you but your Lenovo laptop and a bowl of apple jacks.

I thought I told you to stay away from my basement window

Trent Steele wrote:At this point, I dont care about trading Drabek and Happ. Rube's job is to find a way to not include Brown. I don't know if that's possible without without simply switching Taylor in. Either way, he has to get this done.

I'm thinking:

1. JPR won't substitute Taylor for Brown because he doesn't need/want an OF next year because he's got too many OF's already. He wants someone who's at least 2-3 years away (and, of course, the better prospect).

2. And I don't think he's going to back off on Drabek because he's got to get a stud pitching prospect back for Halladay -- and that stud pitching prospect has to be close to ML ready (which leaves Knapp out).

Get Happ out of the deal. Give him Bastardo/Savery/Carpenter and Donald instead, swallow hard and do the deal:

Drabek, Brown, Pitcher B & Donald

for Halladay and 2 draft picks.

If you can get Scutaro and/or Frasor, too, great. But don't blow the deal over them.

It's a lot, but it's Roy Freakin' Halladay.

JFLNYC wrote:

Trent Steele wrote:At this point, I dont care about trading Drabek and Happ. Rube's job is to find a way to not include Brown. I don't know if that's possible without without simply switching Taylor in. Either way, he has to get this done.

I'm thinking:

1. JPR won't substitute Taylor for Brown because he doesn't need/want an OF next year because he's got too many OF's already. He wants someone who's at least 2-3 years away (and, of course, the better prospect).

2. And I don't think he's going to back off on Drabek because he's got to get a stud pitching prospect back for Halladay -- and that stud pitching prospect has to be close to ML ready (which leaves Knapp out).

Get Happ out of the deal. Give him Bastardo/Savery/Carpenter and Donald instead, swallow hard and do the deal:

Drabek, Brown, Pitcher B & Donald

for Halladay and 2 draft picks.

If you can get Scutaro and/or Frasor, too, great. But don't blow the deal over them.

It's a lot, but it's Roy Freakin' Halladay.

That really is the last thing I want to happen (although I agree re Taylor). I want to keeo Happ in the deal, and see if you can add enough to keep Brown. Maybe there's no way JP does it, but that is my counterproposal for now. Something like....


Drabek, Happ, d'Arnaud, Donald, Gose

ek wrote:

Trent Steele wrote:At this point, I dont care about trading Drabek and Happ. Rube's job is to find a way to not include Brown. I don't know if that's possible without without simply switching Taylor in. Either way, he has to get this done.

this isn't about amaro. this is about riccardi. Amaro will get it done but I don't think Riccardi is going to move him

Honestly, I see almost no way a deal doesn't get done at this point. If that's JP's opening demand, it is less than what I would have asked for.

Trent Steele wrote:

ek wrote:

Trent Steele wrote:At this point, I dont care about trading Drabek and Happ. Rube's job is to find a way to not include Brown. I don't know if that's possible without without simply switching Taylor in. Either way, he has to get this done.

this isn't about amaro. this is about riccardi. Amaro will get it done but I don't think Riccardi is going to move him

Honestly, I see almost no way a deal doesn't get done at this point. If that's JP's opening demand, it is less than what I would have asked for.

On cue...

i still think halladay's going to #phils. teams in "intense'' talks. i dont have a timetable, but no way he stays. #jays
29 minutes ago from

Heyman

I agree with Trent. Riccardi started this and whatever he gets offered by the phils (barring the freaky unpredictable crazy offer) is by definition the best he's going to get for halladay. If he waits till winter, the price for doc goes down. He's going to act like some towering nightmarish dick that's just walked out of a bosch painting, lumbering around and spurting out standard gm bollix until the deadline, keeping his fingers crossed that his dick teasing of the other gm's will get someone excited enough to shoot their load early and blow away anything rube has to offer. And if that doesn't happen, we'll get him. Rube's job is to stay calm, keep talking and put a vice on this pallid, wrinkled excuse for a gm when the little prick has nowhere else to turn.

i'm going to just reiterate how incredibly stupid it would be for riccardi not to trade him. that's not to say he won't do it, but it is to say that if he does not trade him, he should not only be fired but deported from canada altogether.

in my BP article, i found a pretty good way to approximate in-season values for an ace pitcher, and basically, to a team on the cusp of the playoffs, halladay is worth $12MM more than to the blue jays after you factor in salary. and that's even if we pretend the blue jays can compete for the playoffs next year. just the difference in this year versus next is $12MM for a team in a pennant race.

the reason this is true is that any team who is a borderline playoff team right now has a MUCH higher chance of their season being decided by a couple games in the standings than any team does at the beginning of the season. so halladay's 2009 portion of his contract is worth almost 90% of what it was at the beginning of the season. if they wait to trade him, they'll get a johan type return if they're lucky. that was sadly fair value and it came because the value of trading a guy with 1 years and 2 months left on his contract is just so much higher than with 1 year left on his contract, which is only slightly more than trading him with 2 months left at the trade deadline before his contract expires.

the A's basically showed the market does work similarly to this when they got a similar but even better return for matt holliday despite using up 2/3 of the contract time the rockies traded them; they were able to sell the remaining 1/3 of the contract for more than they paid even though he's having an offyear.

the example i gave in the article was a good one-- if the mets could have traded for johan santana during the last day of 2007, he would be worth millions of dollars for just that one start because there was no ambiguity that the mets season would be decided by a game.

if riccardi doesn't trade him somewhere, he should be fired. he's got multiple bidders and therefore a reasonable ability to get prospects he won't be able to sniff this winter.

ek wrote:i have a feeling something happened last night either before the game or right after. I just have this feeling nothing is going to happen

So Amaro gives in and says ok to some version of the proposed deal then JP says "Oh nevermind, we've reconsidered"? Is it possible Toronto ownership has stepped in and said stop this circus?

Trent Steele wrote:

JFLNYC wrote:

Trent Steele wrote:At this point, I dont care about trading Drabek and Happ. Rube's job is to find a way to not include Brown. I don't know if that's possible without without simply switching Taylor in. Either way, he has to get this done.

I'm thinking:

1. JPR won't substitute Taylor for Brown because he doesn't need/want an OF next year because he's got too many OF's already. He wants someone who's at least 2-3 years away (and, of course, the better prospect).

2. And I don't think he's going to back off on Drabek because he's got to get a stud pitching prospect back for Halladay -- and that stud pitching prospect has to be close to ML ready (which leaves Knapp out).

Get Happ out of the deal. Give him Bastardo/Savery/Carpenter and Donald instead, swallow hard and do the deal:

Drabek, Brown, Pitcher B & Donald

for Halladay and 2 draft picks.

If you can get Scutaro and/or Frasor, too, great. But don't blow the deal over them.

It's a lot, but it's Roy Freakin' Halladay.

That really is the last thing I want to happen (although I agree re Taylor). I want to keeo Happ in the deal, and see if you can add enough to keep Brown. Maybe there's no way JP does it, but that is my counterproposal for now. Something like....


Drabek, Happ, d'Arnaud, Donald, Gose

I hope you're right. But I don't see JPR doing a deal without both Drabek & Brown and, frankly, I don't blame him. He's giving up the #1 starter in the game who also happens to be a horse who saves your bullpen, solid citizen, etc., etc.

I know I may be a minority of one but, if it were a choice between deal or no deal (and it may well be getting to that point), I'd even do Drabek, Happ & Brown for Halladay and 2 draft choices. I'd like to give up less, just like veryone else, but it simply may not be possible. And, given the uncertainty of prospects, we're starting to count the number of angels on a pinhead.

It's a ton, but this is a unique time for the franchise. There's unquantifiable value in this deal which goes beyond the players: A chance to win 2 or 3 WS in a 3-year period, maximizing having Utley, Howard, Rollins, Ibanez, Hamels, etc., the chance to establish the Phils as a national brand, the fact that arguably the hottest trade deadline player ever is available, wants to come to Philly and we have the resources to get him and pay him, telling the players fans and everyone in the baseball universe that the Phils a major franchise, not a fluke, and are players in the game from this day forward.

So, there, I've said it. I'd do JPR's deal. It may end up being too much in baseball talent or Drabek and/or Brown may never make it to the big leagues. Only time will tell. But I'd do it for all the reasons I stated and a bunch more I can't think of at the moment. Do it. Keep drafting well, if you can't re-sign Halladay, make good use of 2 good draft picks. Keep an eye on the future, but do it.

The planets are aligned in a way which we may never see again for this franchise. To let this opportunity pass without making the deal (even at the asking price) would be a travesty, bad karma, a curse.

you cant trade draft picks or guys players who were drafted less than a year ago.

The Red Tornado wrote:you cant trade draft picks or guys players who were drafted less than a year ago.

Not my point. The draft picks come with Halladay if he leaves after 2010.

just reread that and saw my error

I feel we'll see Halladay as a Phillie before TD11's girlfriend gets picked up by housh at the tailgate

ek wrote:someone on the phillies.com board says they know shenk and shenk says it's

drabek, happ, taylor or brown and another prospect

for

halladay, scutaro


doubt it of course

Anybody know the current Elias rating on Scutaro - any chance he is Type B and yields us a comp pick. Our luck - we'd probably offer arb and he'd accept.

SQUIRE

Squire wrote:

ek wrote:someone on the phillies.com board says they know shenk and shenk says it's

drabek, happ, taylor or brown and another prospect

for

halladay, scutaro


doubt it of course

Anybody know the current Elias rating on Scutaro - any chance he is Type B and yields us a comp pick. Our luck - we'd probably offer arb and he'd accept.

SQUIRE

I think I'd do it just to get rid of beard man. Based on the season he's having, there's no way he'd accept arbitration for a pittance over his current salary.

MattS wrote:i'm going to just reiterate how incredibly stupid it would be for riccardi not to trade him. that's not to say he won't do it, but it is to say that if he does not trade him, he should not only be fired but deported from canada altogether.

in my BP article, i found a pretty good way to approximate in-season values for an ace pitcher, and basically, to a team on the cusp of the playoffs, halladay is worth $12MM more than to the blue jays after you factor in salary. and that's even if we pretend the blue jays can compete for the playoffs next year. just the difference in this year versus next is $12MM for a team in a pennant race.

the reason this is true is that any team who is a borderline playoff team right now has a MUCH higher chance of their season being decided by a couple games in the standings than any team does at the beginning of the season. so halladay's 2009 portion of his contract is worth almost 90% of what it was at the beginning of the season. if they wait to trade him, they'll get a johan type return if they're lucky. that was sadly fair value and it came because the value of trading a guy with 1 years and 2 months left on his contract is just so much higher than with 1 year left on his contract, which is only slightly more than trading him with 2 months left at the trade deadline before his contract expires.

the A's basically showed the market does work similarly to this when they got a similar but even better return for matt holliday despite using up 2/3 of the contract time the rockies traded them; they were able to sell the remaining 1/3 of the contract for more than they paid even though he's having an offyear.

the example i gave in the article was a good one-- if the mets could have traded for johan santana during the last day of 2007, he would be worth millions of dollars for just that one start because there was no ambiguity that the mets season would be decided by a game.

if riccardi doesn't trade him somewhere, he should be fired. he's got multiple bidders and therefore a reasonable ability to get prospects he won't be able to sniff this winter.

I have it on good authority that Ricciardi is not going to be brought back as GM, which means its an upper management fail for letting him try and trade their most valuable player.

Squire wrote:Anybody know the current Elias rating on Scutaro - any chance he is Type B and yields us a comp pick. Our luck - we'd probably offer arb and he'd accept.

SQUIRE

http://www.scribd.com/doc/17675287/Rankings-072509

Scutaro is a Type A

HillMD wrote:You seem like the man around here. I like you. You take control of the conversation, and tell people(me) to keep their crap off this board. You impose your will so thoroughly, it even transcends the internet. It makes me feel inferior to you in life. You could be a 35 year old man in a basement somewhere, wearing boxers with mini battleships embroidered upon them, and nothing in front of you but your Lenovo laptop and a bowl of apple jacks. None of that matters. On the internet, you're a shark, and you make me feel like a helpless salmon. You see a new poster with 100 posts(the salmon) and you attack. All my years of studying at Columbia on my quest to become a doctor of medicine are thrown out the window once I step into your territory. I guess that's the beauty of life, isn't it? Barack Obama could join this message board and immediately take a backseat to you, with your track record and support of fellow veterans. I bow down to you sir, you are the better man.

Let me see if i have this right. You make the comment that you'd enjoy if an entire baseball team died in a car crash, and I'm the bad guy?