stevelxa476 wrote:

WhiteyFan wrote:

Shore wrote:

WhiteyFan wrote:Robo umps coming to ST. They'll be in MLB before you know it. Catcher position about to change drastically.

Drastically? I think there was a sweet spot from 2012-2016 or so, where catchers were WILDLY different in the framing ability, and some teams valued/measured it and some teams didn't. But I don't think the gap between the best framers and the worst is very large at all any more, which means it's a small factor in their actual value. It's not like you can catch Ryan Howard now that framing isn't an issue - catching/throwing/etc won't change at all.

Right, but they won't need to frame AT ALL in the future so that skill is being completely eliminated. It will open the position back up to a ton of guys that were never in consideration before. The bat will become the most important quality of a good catcher. That is not the case today.

So by deduction, you are saying that pitch framing is currently the most important quality of a good catcher....?

We’ll start with a table of three-year WAR per 600 plate appearances. Now, our catcher WAR at FanGraphs doesn’t try much to fold in defense. And so, into the WAR equation, I’ll insert defensive measurements from Baseball Prospectus. These include framing, blocking, throwing, and so on. Here are the top ten backstops since 2016:

2016 – 2018, With Framing
Catcher PA WAR/600 2019 Age
Tyler Flowers 991 6.6 33
Yasmani Grandal 1457 6.5 30
Austin Barnes 537 6.1 29
Buster Posey 1630 5.1 32
Gary Sanchez 1128 4.7 26
Austin Hedges 769 4.5 26
Mike Zunino 1032 4.5 28
J.T. Realmuto 1655 4.5 28
Roberto Perez 642 3.9 30
Wilson Ramos 1163 3.8 31
Defensive numbers from Baseball Prospectus.
Realmuto shows up in eighth place. Or, more accurately, he’s tied for sixth. That’s good, but there’s a difference between sixth (or eighth) and first. Working in Realmuto’s favor is that he’s relatively young. He’s younger than four of the catchers in front of him. Also working in Realmuto’s favor is that, over the past three years, he leads all catchers in plate appearances. Realmuto’s been durable. But then, as well, there’s the pitch-framing thing. Pitch-framing is a major reason why Flowers, Grandal, and Barnes end up with numbers so high. I don’t doubt that pitch-framing exists, and that it can be significant. We’ve covered that before. But now look at a table of the same information again, only this time with pitch-framing removed from the math:

2016 – 2018, Without Framing
Catcher PA WAR/600 2019 Age
J.T. Realmuto 1655 4.6 28
Gary Sanchez 1128 4.1 26
Buster Posey 1630 3.8 32
Robinson Chirinos 905 3.7 35
Yasmani Grandal 1457 3.6 30
Willson Contreras 1255 3.6 27
Austin Barnes 537 3.5 29
Mike Zunino 1032 3.2 28
Wilson Ramos 1163 3.2 31
Kurt Suzuki 1070 3.1 35
Defensive numbers from Baseball Prospectus.
When you get rid of the framing component, Realmuto moves all the way up to first. Again, pitch-framing can’t just be outright ignored. It is a skill, and there are differences between catchers. Those differences add up to runs. But, according to Baseball Prospectus, the three-year difference in framing runs between Grandal and Realmuto is 73.5. How willing should we be to believe in a gap of almost eight wins? How well do we believe the math is isolating the catchers from their pitching staffs?

WhiteyFan wrote:

stevelxa476 wrote:

WhiteyFan wrote:

Shore wrote:

WhiteyFan wrote:Robo umps coming to ST. They'll be in MLB before you know it. Catcher position about to change drastically.

Drastically? I think there was a sweet spot from 2012-2016 or so, where catchers were WILDLY different in the framing ability, and some teams valued/measured it and some teams didn't. But I don't think the gap between the best framers and the worst is very large at all any more, which means it's a small factor in their actual value. It's not like you can catch Ryan Howard now that framing isn't an issue - catching/throwing/etc won't change at all.

Right, but they won't need to frame AT ALL in the future so that skill is being completely eliminated. It will open the position back up to a ton of guys that were never in consideration before. The bat will become the most important quality of a good catcher. That is not the case today.

So by deduction, you are saying that pitch framing is currently the most important quality of a good catcher....?

Yes, basically.

If a catcher is a GREAT hitter and a terrible pitch framer, he would never even get consideration in today's game. Conversely, if a guy is a GREAT pitch framer and a terrible hitter, he will still get a chance. I don't think its a stretch to say the pitch framing is more important (or at least as important) as hitting in today's game.

However, while there were 2,162 pitching appearances that lasted fewer than three batters in 2019, 1,471 of them concluded with the end of an inning or the end of the game. That leaves just 691 appearances that the three-batter minimum would have extended, and that’s before searching that sample for outings that ended in injury and thus also would have been exempt from the rule.

Over the course of the 2,429 major-league games played in 2019, those 691 pitching appearances work out to just one every 3 1/2 games. If, in every case, the new rule eliminated the mid-inning pitching change entirely, it would have made the average time of a major-league game in 2019 (drumroll, please) … 34 seconds shorter.

MoBettle wrote:https://theathletic.com/1555626/2020/01/23/the-new-3-batter-minimum-rule-wont-speed-up-games-but-will-have-negative-unintended-consequences/?source=shared-article

However, while there were 2,162 pitching appearances that lasted fewer than three batters in 2019, 1,471 of them concluded with the end of an inning or the end of the game. That leaves just 691 appearances that the three-batter minimum would have extended, and that’s before searching that sample for outings that ended in injury and thus also would have been exempt from the rule.

Over the course of the 2,429 major-league games played in 2019, those 691 pitching appearances work out to just one every 3 1/2 games. If, in every case, the new rule eliminated the mid-inning pitching change entirely, it would have made the average time of a major-league game in 2019 (drumroll, please) … 34 seconds shorter.

Granted Kapler might do it a disproportionate amount but at first glance this stat is shockingly low?

I still think it’s worth it because if it happens once in a game I imagine it is more likely to happen multiple times.

Bill McNeal wrote:Fangraphs on Realmuto's case as the best catcher in baseball and how his pitch framing ability fits into that determinatino

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-argumen ... t-catcher/

We’ll start with a table of three-year WAR per 600 plate appearances. Now, our catcher WAR at FanGraphs doesn’t try much to fold in defense. And so, into the WAR equation, I’ll insert defensive measurements from Baseball Prospectus. These include framing, blocking, throwing, and so on. Here are the top ten backstops since 2016:...
...?

I know that fwar and bwar is not the be all and all and that MLB clubs have more data than we do, but the skill itself seems too hard to accurately quantify.

WhiteyFan wrote:
So you're removing the most difficult defensive skill needed to master the one positions on the diamond where defense matters the most. All I am saying is the result will be that the catcher position will become MUCH more offensive minded with the change. Im not sure why this is considered controversial?

swishnicholson wrote:

WhiteyFan wrote:
So you're removing the most difficult defensive skill needed to master the one positions on the diamond where defense matters the most. All I am saying is the result will be that the catcher position will become MUCH more offensive minded with the change. Im not sure why this is considered controversial?

Because you're taking a marginal, though very useful, skill and elevating it to a basic skill for catchers. Saying it's so doesn't make it so. Some catchers who are very good at it will find their value going down, but that's the main effect I would see on the position. Catching, throwing, working with pitchers will still be the building blocks of the position. Plus they'll have to hit a little.

swishnicholson wrote:Some catchers who are very good at it will find their value going down, but that's the main effect I would see on the position. Catching, throwing, working with pitchers will still be the building blocks of the position. Plus they'll have to hit a little.

MoBettle wrote:https://theathletic.com/1555626/2020/01/23/the-new-3-batter-minimum-rule-wont-speed-up-games-but-will-have-negative-unintended-consequences/?source=shared-article

However, while there were 2,162 pitching appearances that lasted fewer than three batters in 2019, 1,471 of them concluded with the end of an inning or the end of the game. That leaves just 691 appearances that the three-batter minimum would have extended, and that’s before searching that sample for outings that ended in injury and thus also would have been exempt from the rule.

Over the course of the 2,429 major-league games played in 2019, those 691 pitching appearances work out to just one every 3 1/2 games. If, in every case, the new rule eliminated the mid-inning pitching change entirely, it would have made the average time of a major-league game in 2019 (drumroll, please) … 34 seconds shorter.

Granted Kapler might do it a disproportionate amount but at first glance this stat is shockingly low?

I still think it’s worth it because if it happens once in a game I imagine it is more likely to happen multiple times.

WhiteyFan wrote:Debating the accuracy of pitch-framing data between already elite defensive catchers is completely missing the point. It will no longer be needed. Like at all. This changes the entire defensive landscape for catchers.

WhiteyFan wrote:Pitch framing has always been the most difficult skill for a catcher to master. [...] It's much more difficult than throwing out a runner and its more difficult than blocking a pitch in the dirt.

WhiteyFan wrote:They used to call it "footwork" or "receiving skills"

WhiteyFan wrote:Catching and throwing are neither difficult nor unique skills.

phatj wrote:

WhiteyFan wrote:Debating the accuracy of pitch-framing data between already elite defensive catchers is completely missing the point. It will no longer be needed. Like at all. This changes the entire defensive landscape for catchers.

It's not missing the point as those at the top of the current pitch framing ability pyramid will lose the most value relative to their peers.

WhiteyFan wrote:Pitch framing has always been the most difficult skill for a catcher to master. [...] It's much more difficult than throwing out a runner and its more difficult than blocking a pitch in the dirt.

According to whom?

WhiteyFan wrote:They used to call it "footwork" or "receiving skills"

I think both footwork and receiving skills encompass skills other than pitch framing. For example footwork effects how quickly and strongly a catcher can get a throw away; receiving skills includes the ability to handle pitches that don't go where they're supposed to.

WhiteyFan wrote:Catching and throwing are neither difficult nor unique skills.

I think that catching and throwing while squatting or on one's knees are definitely more difficult than catching and throwing for other players, and unique in some ways.

WhiteyFan wrote:Are you suggesting this very radical change to the position is going to have no (or very minimal) effect on the position? You think the top-of-the-line defensive catchers who can't really hit (like Austin Hedges) are still going to be in high-demand? You think the awesome hitting catchers who werent very good pitch framers/receiving skills/footwork (like Gary Sanchez) aren't going to be more valuable and get additional chances that they previously wouldn't have received? You really believe this is going to have zero effect on the position?