Tanking Is Bad and LeBron Is Good: A Sixers/LeBron Thread

Re: Tanking Is Bad and LeBron Is Good: A Sixers/LeBron Threa

Postby Gimpy » Tue Jul 08, 2014 02:15:29

Hollis led all rookies in 3 point percentage last year if I'm not mistaken. And Sims was more productive than Hawes after the trade. I'm pretty sure Brown really likes both guys too (and so do I). They're players in the NBA.

Also, I don't begrudge fairweatherness. There's room on the bandwagon for everyone.

But fuck Cleveland. I can't stand Dan Gilbert, or their stupid luck, or the fact that they'd be rewarded immensely for being the league's most incompetent franchise, or that one time I went there and had a miserable time. I love watching LeBron play and never really proactively rooted against him in Cleveland or on the Heat, but he'll be public enemy number one to me if he goes back there.

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Re: Tanking Is Bad and LeBron Is Good: A Sixers/LeBron Threa

Postby Ace Rothstein » Tue Jul 08, 2014 02:17:46

Yeah fuck the Cavs

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Re: Tanking Is Bad and LeBron Is Good: A Sixers/LeBron Threa

Postby JFLNYC » Tue Jul 08, 2014 05:41:19

Did we re-sign Sims?
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Re: Tanking Is Bad and LeBron Is Good: A Sixers/LeBron Threa

Postby sydnor » Tue Jul 08, 2014 06:56:48

Werthless,
I'm not sure how you think you're disagreeing with me, but I found your examples not very helpful. I work in Analytics and while we're not as smart as statisticians, we're often asked to provide error bars and projections. I'm going to leave the customer example out but just kind of assume something like what you described is happening:

"Josh, here's what we're doing: we've drafted Embiid, we'll get another high lottery pick in 2015, Saric comes over in 2016, etc.

We think this will result in a very rough year this year (25 wins) a less rough year next year (30 wins) and we should be on the upswing in 2016 (40 wins). Now, this projection involves any number of things wrong, the players we draft may be worse than we thought, or we drafted too injury prone people, or somebody dies or what have you, so our confidence in each of these win totals is less each year. I'd say there's a plus 15 on year 4."

First, if I was Josh Harris, I would ratify that plan - that is a GOOD strategy. Now, fast forward to year 4, and we win 30 games. Josh Harris is going to pull Sam Hinkie into office (and barring major fluke injuries that do not happen to Embiid because you can't call Embiid injuries flukes) and fire his ass. He's not going to care that the projection was right or more specifically "fell within reasonable error bars". He's not going to care that the strategy was right. The execution was wrong.

Jersey was right with respect to the notion of politics thread in that what I feel is happening is that the goalposts are being moved. First it was a year long tank to get Wiggins or Parker. Then Embiid came in. Now it's a two year tank. And let me stop here and say that's a very very viable strategy. But now mcare suggested that it might have to be a four year tank and we have to be okay with it. No one asked mcare if he wants it to be a five year tank because the board would have ended, but conceivably there are situations where he'd be jumping up for joy with that too. At which point we've just become the Phillies. What exactly is the difference if the Phillies try to win, don't win, and look like they have no hope or the Sixers not trying to win, don't win, but always suggestthey just need another year? Two's fine. Four? No. You must be able to define what good looks like and what success looks like so that you can move towards that. The thing is this all started in the most innocuous way, the Nightman threw a softball to mcare and he totally whiffed on it.
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Re: Tanking Is Bad and LeBron Is Good: A Sixers/LeBron Threa

Postby Napalm » Tue Jul 08, 2014 07:11:52

was p. excited for a bunch of pages and a new thread to catch up on but its all ferris wheel talk. blech. let me off this ride already

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Re: Tanking Is Bad and LeBron Is Good: A Sixers/LeBron Threa

Postby Napalm » Tue Jul 08, 2014 07:15:15

the hilarious part of all this is that its the beginning of YEAR 2 and people are restless?

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Re: Tanking Is Bad and LeBron Is Good: A Sixers/LeBron Threa

Postby choco » Tue Jul 08, 2014 08:03:04

13-14: MCW
14-15: MCW & Noel
15-16: MCW, Noel, Embiid & 2015 lottery 1st rounder
16-17: MCW, Noel, Embiid, Saric, 2015 lottery 1st rounder & 2016 presumably mid to late 1st rounder

Plus anything they get from Houston and/or Cleveland or anyone else looking to unload salary plus any 2nd rounders plus Wroten, Sims, Thompson, etc...

Year 4 of the plan could be 5 lottery picks starting together. That should be a good year, but maybe guys get hurt or don't develop as expected.

I think even if year 4 is bad, but there are signs of things moving in the right direction, Hink still will get Year 5 to show that the plan may work.
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Re: Tanking Is Bad and LeBron Is Good: A Sixers/LeBron Threa

Postby pacino » Tue Jul 08, 2014 08:08:57

why are we discussing year 4 when year 2 hasn't happened yet

this is like when i used to figure out the phillies roster for 3 years from now. inevitably, so much changes that it's a completely useless thing for a fan to try to do. live in the present and near future.
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Re: Tanking Is Bad and LeBron Is Good: A Sixers/LeBron Threa

Postby Napalm » Tue Jul 08, 2014 08:09:29

this reminds me of a post here from like 06 and 07 which projected the phils lineup into 08 and 09 and it included a bunch of young bros that were no longer around. 16-17 team is gonna have durant and bron guys

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Re: Tanking Is Bad and LeBron Is Good: A Sixers/LeBron Threa

Postby JFLNYC » Tue Jul 08, 2014 08:16:03

pacino wrote:why are we discussing year 4 when year 2 hasn't happened yet

this is like when i used to figure out the phillies roster for 3 years from now. inevitably, so much changes that it's a completely useless thing for a fan to try to do. live in the present and near future.


C'mon, Pac. When your GM tells you you're going to suck for the next few years and all you've got to look forward to is years 4+, he's inviting discussion of the out years. Why were we talking about this year's draft before last year happened? When the present sucks, the future is all you've got. How far out is it permissible to discuss?
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Re: Tanking Is Bad and LeBron Is Good: A Sixers/LeBron Threa

Postby pacino » Tue Jul 08, 2014 08:20:41

it sucks TO YOU. he never said they wouldn't try to compete. he probably isn't even done dealin' before the start of this season. i just don't get the point in discussing all this crap. sit back and let it come instead of fretting.

hounding mcare to discuss theoretical win totals and arbitrary goals was way too much and i'm sick of people looking at those who accept that this is what it is regarding the plan as somehow having sixers-colored glasses. they accept reality. the sixers currently stink but are young and have a plan. the phillies stink, are old and have no plan. i know which ones i'll be berating, and it's not the sixers.
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Re: Tanking Is Bad and LeBron Is Good: A Sixers/LeBron Threa

Postby phillychuck » Tue Jul 08, 2014 08:46:00

the sixers currently stink but are young and have a plan. the phillies stink, are old and have no plan. i know which ones i'll be berating, and it's not the sixes.
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Re: Tanking Is Bad and LeBron Is Good: A Sixers/LeBron Threa

Postby JFLNYC » Tue Jul 08, 2014 09:14:49

Harris: "Hello?"

Hinkie: "Hi, Josh. It's Sam."

JH: "Good to hear from you, Sam. So what's the latest on the plan?"

SH: "Here's the thing: The way the chips fell, we're going to be tanking again this year."

JH: "Oh, OK. I trust you. But we still have the five-year plan you told me about, right?"

SH: "Absolutely."

JH: "Good. So let's talk a bit about the plan."

SH: "Can't do that."

JH: "Why?"

SH: "It's way too speculative and arbitrary. No one knows what's going to happen in a couple of years, let alone after that. So there's no sense even discussing it."

JH: "But you still have the plan, right?"

SH: "Right!"

JH: "There's just no sense in discussing it because it's so speculative and arbitrary that it probably won't happen anyway."

SH: "Right!"

JH: "So I've entrusted a quarter of a billion dollar investment to you based on your 5-year plan for the future, but there's no sense discussing it because no one knows what's going to happen a couple of years down the line."

SH: "Exactly. Why fret about tomorrow? Enjoy today. By the way, did I tell you Hollis Thompson has a hangnail?

JH: "Hmmm. Well, you know, five years of famine is a lot to ask of the fans, you know, the ones who pay your salary. What should we say to them to get them to buy tickets for the next few years?"

SH: "That's the beauty of it. We tell them nothing. I don't answer to them. They smell of beer and mustard. As long as we don't define success, no one can say we aren't successful! Wins don't mean success. Attendance doesn't mean success. The only measure of success is what you and I decide. We're on a need-to-know basis and the fans don't need to know. After all, we're smarter than they are and none of them could run this team as well as I can. Do you think just anyone could lose this much while making it look like we actually have a plan? Let me tell you, 26 losses in a row is no easy accomplishment."

JH: "So we stink for the second year in a row and refuse to tell the fans anything about what success might ultimately look like."

SH: "Beautiful, isn't it? And, get this, we recruit people to post on message boards telling any fan who has the chutzpah to talk about years 4 and 5 that it's pointless to think past today! Have I got all the bases covered or what?

JH: "So because discussing years 4 and 5 of the 5-year plan is all so speculative and arbitrary that it's meaningless, I guess there's no sense discussing goals like where plan to be in another 4 years."

SH: "Right."

JH: "Isn't that just another way of saying it's kind of bullshit?"

SH: "Yep."

JH: "OK. Sounds like a plan. I feel much better about my $280MM. Carry on."
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Re: Tanking Is Bad and LeBron Is Good: A Sixers/LeBron Threa

Postby wwry » Tue Jul 08, 2014 09:16:03

i think sam hinkie smokes weed
ImageImageImageImage

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Re: Tanking Is Bad and LeBron Is Good: A Sixers/LeBron Threa

Postby Grotewold » Tue Jul 08, 2014 09:22:05

Let's definitely conflate the Sixers' PR and the Hinkie/Harris relationship

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Re: Tanking Is Bad and LeBron Is Good: A Sixers/LeBron Threa

Postby wwry » Tue Jul 08, 2014 09:32:48

get this: every home game a random fan will be picked from the stands to rip a huge hit of dank with sixers GM Sam "Ghost It" Hinkie.
ImageImageImageImage

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Re: Tanking Is Bad and LeBron Is Good: A Sixers/LeBron Threa

Postby Bucky » Tue Jul 08, 2014 09:36:39

was that transcript part of the snowden haul

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Re: Tanking Is Bad and LeBron Is Good: A Sixers/LeBron Threa

Postby Squire » Tue Jul 08, 2014 09:45:02

Can't say I've ever understood the motivation to type out a long fake transcript.

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Re: Tanking Is Bad and LeBron Is Good: A Sixers/LeBron Threa

Postby sydnor » Tue Jul 08, 2014 09:47:14

with all due respect, squire, you've involved yourself in multi-ROUND mlb mock drafts.
We've all got our hobbies.
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Re: Tanking Is Bad and LeBron Is Good: A Sixers/LeBron Threa

Postby slugsrbad » Tue Jul 08, 2014 09:48:38

The all-capitalization of the word round has me confused.
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