Hillary's 'unbridled ambition' is a negative, huh Colin? That's not sexist or anything.

Throw him in the basket.

Bear in mind that all these judgments come from a man who used his considerable credibility to convince the world that Iraq had WMD in order to justify the U.S.'s invasion.

Whoops.

Who'da thunk someone running for president is ambitious

i'm watching cable news please send help

The Donald thanked the 'very good executives' at the Flint water treatment plant

CBS- Tie
Rasmussen- Trump +2
USC- Trump +6

I mean, what the actual fuck.

never underestimate the willingness of the American public to fuck themselves over


i would imagine any undecideds and some 3rd party voters will change after the debates. the binary choice becomes clear. she wins but it won't be easy.

it looks like a lot of that is Clinton falling a few points more than Trump gaining.

All kidding aside, anyone who has criticized Trump on this forum will be arrested on January 21, 2017.

Doll Is Mine wrote:

Trump now saying 'something was up' and implying this was a setup!!!!

he is trash.

even his medical reveal stuff-- it will be revealed. not it wont. then wait, he asks the crowd, and pulls it out of his pocket!

that all could have been calculated or he has no self control and went against what his campaign advised him to do. either way, theater or self absorption, it was gross.

CalvinBall wrote:CBS- Tie
Rasmussen- Trump +2
USC- Trump +6

I mean, what the actual fuck.

Don't get caught up in the topline to the LA Times/USC poll, though the trend is perhaps real. But in other polls that have come out - Reuters (which is garbage), YouGov (pretty good) - there hasn't been any shift since last week.

While I am somewhat amused to see many of you creeping towards the dread that has filled my soul since January, four major things to keep in mind -

1) The 3rd party vote leans Clinton in the head to head ballot, and traditionally many of these voters will choose one of the major party candidates, especially in swing states.
2) The likely voter screens are really hurting Clinton, but a lot of likely voter screens are crude. There was a reason I (and a lot of other Republicans) thought Romney was going to win in mid/late October - he really was winning in a lot of polls, including GOP internals. The Democrats did a much better job modeling voter turnout, and the state polls ended up being better than the national polls. Neil Newhouse, Romney's pollster, said afterwards his biggest lesson in 2012 was an unenthusiastic vote counts just as much as an enthusiastic vote. I think we're seeing a lot of the same things happening in some of these likely voter models.
3) Similar to the above issue, one of the major factors in the fluctuation of polling is in asymmetric response rates. When one candidate's base of supporters is more energized, they're more likely to take the time to talk to someone on the phone about it for 15 minutes. This is one of the major sources of convention 'bounces' - ie the actual vote in the electorate hasn't shifted as much as the polls are sensing. Lotta reason to think after the past couple of weeks this might be true in this race.
4) Donald Trump isn't doing debate prep.

good post, thanks jh

Sanders and Warren going to Ohio this weekend

pacino wrote:

Doll Is Mine wrote:

Trump now saying 'something was up' and implying this was a setup!!!!

http://www.npr.org/2016/09/15/494064219/trump-criticizes-flint-pastor-but-misstates-key-facts-about-their-encounter

What a POS.

still terrifying.
election day will be binsane.

Mrs. Clinton's chances of winning have dropped to 76 percent in this morning’s update, their lowest point since the Democratic convention. Also this morning, for the first time since July, Republican chances to keep control of the Senate have inched above 50 percent.

NYT

I do think it's pretty stupid to invite a candidate for office to make a speech and it expect it not to be political.

TenuredVulture wrote:I do think it's pretty stupid to invite a candidate for office to make a speech and it expect it not to be political.

there's a rumor she communicated in some fashion with him/his staff before the event specifically cautioning him about speechmaking etc

but let's face it he's a rancid asshole