pacino wrote:It's hard to argue against something that didn't actually happen, but I don' think Biden is nearly as strong as you seem to think.

Monkeyboy wrote:

pacino wrote:because she actually ran and won?

come on, you know what I mean. Her negative numbers are almost as high as Trump's. A normal democrat would be killing him and we'd be seriously talking about the House instead of the Senate. We may still get there because Clinton may win voters over and Trump may continue to self destruct, but the only reason Trump is competitive right now is because Clinton is on the ticket.

The Nightman Cometh wrote:

pacino wrote:It's hard to argue against something that didn't actually happen, but I don' think Biden is nearly as strong as you seem to think.

I don't think so either. Obama wanted to keep him out of the race for a reason.

pacino wrote:

The Crimson Cyclone wrote:

RichmondPhilsFan wrote:

jerseyhoya wrote:The Senate would be in jeopardy even if we had a good nominee. 24 GOP seats up including 6 in Obama 2012 states and 2 more in Obama 2008 states. Only two plausible targets.

Another couple of weeks like this, and it goes from in jeopardy to not salvageable.

That's why I said earlier that the best possible outcome for the GOP at this point (other than Hillary having some major #$!&@) is to have Trump drop out and Hillary essentially run unopposed, thereby depressing Dem turnout and preventing a down ticket massacre.

wouldnt it also suppress GOP turnout (the yahoos who wouldn't vote unless Trump was on the ticket)?

if you make it more like an off-year election this will inevitably advantage the GOP since their base more consistently comes out election to election. If you take the presidency 'off' the ballot, it'll advantage them. Theoretically, anyway.

MoBettle wrote:So would the GOP though, and they'd be able to campaign without trumps stink on them.

The Crimson Cyclone wrote:

pacino wrote:

The Crimson Cyclone wrote:

RichmondPhilsFan wrote:

jerseyhoya wrote:The Senate would be in jeopardy even if we had a good nominee. 24 GOP seats up including 6 in Obama 2012 states and 2 more in Obama 2008 states. Only two plausible targets.

Another couple of weeks like this, and it goes from in jeopardy to not salvageable.

That's why I said earlier that the best possible outcome for the GOP at this point (other than Hillary having some major #$!&@) is to have Trump drop out and Hillary essentially run unopposed, thereby depressing Dem turnout and preventing a down ticket massacre.

wouldnt it also suppress GOP turnout (the yahoos who wouldn't vote unless Trump was on the ticket)?

if you make it more like an off-year election this will inevitably advantage the GOP since their base more consistently comes out election to election. If you take the presidency 'off' the ballot, it'll advantage them. Theoretically, anyway.

gave this more thought

if there was no GOP opponent come September (when it's too late to replace the ballot), then HRC would have the entire presidential race budget to spend on getting the vote out, She'd be able to campaign with house members who need an extra push to gain seats, run ads to vote Dem and show how the GOP has done nothing but obstruction. I really don't think it's as cut and dry as you guys make it out to be

Donald J. Trump’s record on truth and accuracy is astonishingly poor. So far, we’ve fact-checked more than 70 Trump statements and rated fully three-quarters of them as Mostly False, False or “Pants on Fire” (we reserve this last designation for a claim that is not only inaccurate but also ridiculous). We haven’t checked the former neurosurgeon Ben Carson as often as Mr. Trump, but by the percentages Mr. Carson actually fares worse.

Most of the professional politicians we fact-check don’t reach these depths of inaccuracy. They tend to choose their words more carefully.

Senator Marco Rubio of Florida, for example, has ratings of Mostly False, False and Pants on Fire at the 40 percent mark (out of a sizable 117 statements checked). The former Florida governor Jeb Bush’s negative ratings are at 32 percent out of 71 statements checked, a percentage matched by two other Republican contenders, Gov. Chris Christie of New Jersey and Senator Rand Paul.

In the Democratic race, Senator Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton are evenly matched at 28 percent (based on 43 checks of Mr. Sanders and 140 checks of Mrs. Clinton). Outside of the primary campaign, we’ve continued checking the public statements of Bill Clinton since 2007; he comes out slightly ahead of President Obama in his truth-telling track record.

The president has the distinction of being the most fact-checked person by PolitiFact — by a wide margin, with a whopping 569 statements checked. We’ve rated nine of those Pants on Fire.

RichmondPhilsFan wrote:

The Crimson Cyclone wrote:

pacino wrote:

The Crimson Cyclone wrote:

RichmondPhilsFan wrote:

jerseyhoya wrote:The Senate would be in jeopardy even if we had a good nominee. 24 GOP seats up including 6 in Obama 2012 states and 2 more in Obama 2008 states. Only two plausible targets.

Another couple of weeks like this, and it goes from in jeopardy to not salvageable.

That's why I said earlier that the best possible outcome for the GOP at this point (other than Hillary having some major #$!&@) is to have Trump drop out and Hillary essentially run unopposed, thereby depressing Dem turnout and preventing a down ticket massacre.

wouldnt it also suppress GOP turnout (the yahoos who wouldn't vote unless Trump was on the ticket)?

if you make it more like an off-year election this will inevitably advantage the GOP since their base more consistently comes out election to election. If you take the presidency 'off' the ballot, it'll advantage them. Theoretically, anyway.

gave this more thought

if there was no GOP opponent come September (when it's too late to replace the ballot), then HRC would have the entire presidential race budget to spend on getting the vote out, She'd be able to campaign with house members who need an extra push to gain seats, run ads to vote Dem and show how the GOP has done nothing but obstruction. I really don't think it's as cut and dry as you guys make it out to be

You greatly overestimate how many working class and young voters would turn out in an uncontested race. Yes, the Dems would spend a TON to ameliorate that, but you can only do so much, and the Dems need to essentially sweep the vulnerable House races. That almost assuredly would not happen if turnout is depressed by any notable amount.

I'm not saying it's a perfect outcome for the GOP by any stretch, but it might be their least risky path for retaining the House and Senate.

jerseyhoya wrote:If Trump were to drop out, we'd replace him with someone else.

And much as I would love it to happen, there's no chance he drops out at this point. Trump cares less about helping the GOP than the average poster in this thread.

RichmondPhilsFan wrote:

jerseyhoya wrote:If Trump were to drop out, we'd replace him with someone else.

And much as I would love it to happen, there's no chance he drops out at this point. Trump cares less about helping the GOP than the average poster in this thread.

Oh I agree it's not happening. It just struck me the other day as being the best-case scenario for the GOP.

And state deadlines for the withdrawal of a general election candidate would limit the GOP's ability to nominate a replacement. For example, in Texas the deadline for legal withdrawal is 8/25 (74 days prior to election day). After that date, the GOP wouldn't be able to choose a substitute and Trump would be a zombie candidate.

jerseyhoya wrote:

RichmondPhilsFan wrote:

jerseyhoya wrote:If Trump were to drop out, we'd replace him with someone else.

And much as I would love it to happen, there's no chance he drops out at this point. Trump cares less about helping the GOP than the average poster in this thread.

Oh I agree it's not happening. It just struck me the other day as being the best-case scenario for the GOP.

And state deadlines for the withdrawal of a general election candidate would limit the GOP's ability to nominate a replacement. For example, in Texas the deadline for legal withdrawal is 8/25 (74 days prior to election day). After that date, the GOP wouldn't be able to choose a substitute and Trump would be a zombie candidate.

In a lot of states the courts would ignore those laws and let the replacement happen. New Jersey for example. I would stop whining about 2002 forever.