Cruz sweeps the statewide delegates in CO, so 34 for him. 0 for Trump.

Of the last 116 delegates doled out, Cruz has gotten 110, Trump 6. SAD!!!

But he knows how to hire the right people!!

the best, they're fantastic people

He'd actually cancelling stops for some reason

It's like even he doesn't want himself as president

maybe he remembered he didn't really want to win

(I typed that before you added the second line!)

It's my style, sorry. I always remember I wanted to say something else

pacino wrote:He'd actually cancelling stops for some reason

He's going all in on NY.

jerseyhoya wrote:

pacino wrote:He'd actually cancelling stops for some reason

He's going all in on NY.

Is this an actual good strategy? California is a fairly large state. The largest, in fact. He's gonna win NY no matter what. And the Congressional district thing will be what it is in NY

I do wonder on the D side if voting for certain delegates will matter for either candidate's turnout more

jerseyhoya wrote:Cruz sweeps the statewide delegates in CO, so 34 for him. 0 for Trump.

Of the last 116 delegates doled out, Cruz has gotten 110, Trump 6. SAD!!!

I forgot North Dakota...

134ish-7ish. Even more SAD

pacino wrote:

jerseyhoya wrote:

pacino wrote:He'd actually cancelling stops for some reason

He's going all in on NY.

Is this an actual good strategy? California is a fairly large state. The largest, in fact. He's gonna win NY no matter what. And the Congressional district thing will be what it is in NY

I think it makes sense. California isn't for two months. Trump has lost his inevitable sheen, and is now quickly flipping in a lot of people's mind to can't get to 1237. A blowout in NY gets him back on track. If he gets 55% statewide, chances are he's over 50% in many/most districts and gets like 85-90 of the 95 delegates.

Doesn't get him back on track for 1237, but gets him back on track as the clear frontrunner in the race. The winner who wins things. Etc. He'll need to clean up on 4/26 then do well on Indiana if he wants to get back on track for 1237.

US State dept has reiterated its high alert warning for Turkish tourist spots.

Whats worse, Trump gets the nomination or Cruz/Romney/Ryan does? Either way the Republican party is screwed. Trump will run 3rd party right?

Trump gets the nomination is worse. It's so obviously worse. The options could be Trump gets the nomination or the GOP forfeits the presidential election, and the GOP forfeits the presidential election would be preferable to a Trump nomination every day of the week and twice on Sunday.

jerseyhoya wrote:Trump gets the nomination is worse. It's so obviously worse. The options could be Trump gets the nomination or the GOP forfeits the presidential election, and the GOP forfeits the presidential election would be preferable to a Trump nomination every day of the week and twice on Sunday.

What people need to remember is that though for all kinds of reasons (including, somewhat ironically the electoral college) the Republicans have a structural disadvantage in winning the Presidency regardless of who wins the nomination. However, the party still has close to a stranglehold on power in more than 30 states and probably the House of Representatives. The Democrats seem to have given up winning any of this back (which in my view is a huge mistake assuming the Democratic party leadership actually cares about implementing policy) so the Republican party is far from disappearing. There are definite divisions and tensions that are obvious to everyone, but a party that is based in states and congressional districts can ride that out for the foreseeable future.

My current estimate for Trump pledged delegates heading into Cleveland: 1181

758 current

Additional state by state:
WY - 0
NY - 85
CT - 21
DE - 16
MD - 32
PA - 17
RI - 9
IN - 9
NE - 0
WV - 34
OR - 10
WA - 17
CA - 112
MT - 0
NJ - 51
NM - 10
SD - 0

I don't think that'd be enough. I think he needs to get north of 1200 to have a better than even shot at crossing 1237 on the first ballot, and I think if he fails to do so on the first ballot he'll get destroyed on the second ballot. IN and CA are big wild cards (CA could be MUCH worse than 112 for him, but could also be better; IN he could legit get all 57 dels). MT is the other place where maybe he has upside. I'm not sure outside of CA there are places there where he is at least somewhat likely to significantly underperform.

I think he could outperform those NY and CA numbers by a little bit. And don't forget about all of the PA unpledgeds. A number of them have already said they'd support the statewide winner so every extra delegate there helps. I think he winds up around 1,200. Going to be a real clusterfuck.