i think Trump will garner a lot of votes in PA..whether that translates to delegates with his complete joke of an operation, I honestly have no clue. The lucky thing for Rs who realize their fate if Trump gets nominated is that he's completely incompetent with actually RUNNING businesses and has surrounded himself with more incompetent yes men. He's just hype in every sense of the word.

JUburton wrote:I think he could outperform those NY and CA numbers by a little bit. And don't forget about all of the PA unpledgeds. A number of them have already said they'd support the statewide winner so every extra delegate there helps. I think he winds up around 1,200. Going to be a real clusterfuck.

He's almost maxed out in NY at 85, which would mean over 50% statewide and in 17/27 congressional districts, while winning the other 10 districts but falling short of 50%. I think there will be some districts in the city and some upstate where he doesn't hit 50%. CA who knows. 112 is winning statewide and 33/53 CDs. There's a lot of variation within the state, so I think it'd be hard for him to get close to sweeping the delegates unless he wins by a decent margin.

He's gonna need a big chunk of the PA unpledged delegates to get from 1200 to 1237. The next biggest pool of unpledged delegates is North Dakota, and he'll be lucky to get 1-2 of them. There are 23 from Guam/USVI/Northern Mariana Islands. That would seem to be his best hunting ground, but who knows who those people are or what they care about. The others are from OK, LA, WY, CO where I'd guess he gets basically skunked. It's probably helpful to think of his ceiling with unpledged as 77 between PA and the territories. Getting from 1200 to 1237 would mean he needs about half of them, which seems doable but no guarantee. Even 10-20 more away from 1237 and it becomes really challenging for him.

Thought the guy on the radio this morning made a good point about Trump. A significant part of Trump's campaign pitch is that he knows "how to figure things out" "understands the way the system works" etc. And yet he can't even seem to figure out the very obvious Republican Party delegate system. Ironic.

One possible explanation could be that Donald Trump doesn't know shit, but I'm just spitballing here.

Trump is upset at Cruz understanding rules:

“They’re trying to subvert the movement,” Trump said to thousands of voters crammed into a frigid airplane hangar Sunday. “They can’t do it with bodies, so they’re trying to subvert the movement with crooked shenanigans.”

Trump declared a kind of solidarity with Sen. Bernie Sanders (Vt.), a Democratic presidential candidate he “couldn’t care less about,” over the lack of respect they seemed to get for winning states.

“He wins and wins and wins, and I hear he doesn’t have a chance?” asked Trump. “This is a crooked system, folks. I couldn’t care less, but he wins, like me. I’ve won twice as much, millions more votes. People who have never voted have come out and voted for Trump. The Republicans are up 70 percent; the Democrats are down 30 percent from four years ago. Every one of those people, if they try to do their little shenanigans, which is politics as usual, every one of those people . . .”

Trump's campaign sent a delegate recruitment email out for Washington state two days after the deadline to sign up as a delegate and they accidentally sent it to the Washington DC list instead of Washington state.
jh's reaction:



also, Trump Vodka lies about being kosher

golly gee, what's this vanilla campaign ad for? running for speaker of the House again?


he didn't want to be part of government, he didn't want to be speaker, now he doesn't want to be president

gee whiz, me? you want me?! can't we all just get along?!

bipartisan idiots try to understand technology:
yikes:

But, let's dig into a few other bits of insanity in the bill. It starts out with an insane assertion, right upfront:
It is the sense of Congress that--
no person or entity is above the law;
economic growth, prosperity, security, stability, and liberty require adherence to the rule of law;
What an absurd way to start the bill. As we've discussed over and over again, despite FBI director James Comey's statements, no one is claiming to be "above the law" here. When they offer end-to-end encryption they're not "above the law," they're just building a system to which they don't have the key. That's like saying that the safe maker who doesn't keep copies of the keys to every safe they sell is above the law. But no one requires safemakers to keep copies of every key.

White House doesn't appear to support the anti-encryption bill because it's stupid

Bruce Springsteen canceled a show in North Carolina a few days ago and Bryan Adams just canceled his show in Mississippi.

Kudos.

took a page out of the B. Clinton playbook!

pacino wrote:Rick Scott is a weirdo

thin-skinned, grotesque-looking lizard fucker who's almost certainly doing a raft of illegal things as governor.

Probably regrets not being born in some hellhole where "leaders" have easier routes to stuffing cash into panamanian accounts

My favorite #feelthebern moment right now is Morning Joe flipping about the system being rigged, pointing out that Bern won Wyoming by 12%, but after super delegates Hillary beat him 11-7. The vote total for Wyoming was 152 - 124.

the people have spoken, my friend

slugsrbad wrote:My favorite #feelthebern moment right now is Morning Joe flipping about the system being rigged, pointing out that Bern won Wyoming by 12%, but after super delegates Hillary beat him 11-7. The vote total for Wyoming was 152 - 124.

County delegates not votes

RCP

they will likely edit it later, but they currently have slugs' numbers. They actually took out Alaska because it wasn't initially reported correctly and isn't official yet. Seems several states suck at counting votes, and they're all caucus states.

caucuses are dumb.

jerseyhoya wrote:

slugsrbad wrote:My favorite #feelthebern moment right now is Morning Joe flipping about the system being rigged, pointing out that Bern won Wyoming by 12%, but after super delegates Hillary beat him 11-7. The vote total for Wyoming was 152 - 124.

County delegates not votes

That makes much more sense. I know Wyoming is a "red" state and sparsely populated, but that number seemed off.

pacino wrote:RCP

they will likely edit it later, but they currently have slugs' numbers. They actually took out Alaska because it wasn't initially reported correctly and isn't official yet. Seems several states suck at counting votes, and they're all caucus states.

caucuses are dumb.

Yea. I saw the number from my Google search and checked it with RCP which confirmed. I agree, caucuses are dumb.

slugsrbad wrote:

jerseyhoya wrote:

slugsrbad wrote:My favorite #feelthebern moment right now is Morning Joe flipping about the system being rigged, pointing out that Bern won Wyoming by 12%, but after super delegates Hillary beat him 11-7. The vote total for Wyoming was 152 - 124.

County delegates not votes

That makes much more sense. I know Wyoming is a "red" state and sparsely populated, but that number seemed off.

it's the least populous state and has the least registered Democrats, I believe, so I believed you at first, too :D

wyoming is the best bc there are signs that literally say "now entering so and so-- pop. 46"