so at what point do the establishment GOP candidates begin to coalesce and get together and decide to all drop out but one with whom they'll all stand behind?

as it stands right now, with Rubio, Bush, Kasich and Christie all getting 8-16% each (using NH as an example), none of them will ever get enough support individually to take on Trump. How many states will they let him win before they realize that it's the only hope of beating him or are their own egos just too big to get in the way?

The Crimson Cyclone wrote:so at what point do the establishment GOP candidates begin to coalesce and get together and decide to all drop out but one with whom they'll all stand behind?

as it stands right now, with Rubio, Bush, Kasich and Christie all getting 8-16% each (using NH as an example), none of them will ever get enough support individually to take on Trump. How many states will they let him win before they realize that it's the only hope of beating him or are their own egos just too big to get in the way?

they are all covering their ears and going 'la la la la cant hear you' to their electorate.

they created this bed with their rhetoric and refuse to lie in it. they can't absolve themselves of what they did to create this.

Donald Trump is not funny; he's scary.

i love bill kristol. he never gets anything right, but it's because he predicts based on the narrative in his head rather than facts

@BillKristol
NH prediction, 5 days out: Rubio 25, Cruz 22, Trump 19, Kasich 17, others single digits. #NoGutsNoGlory
6:13 PM - 4 Feb 2016

Bernie gets it:

I want to take this opportunity, again, to congratulate Secretary Clinton and her organization and supporters for waging a vigorous campaign. I hope that in the days ahead we can continue to wage a strong issue-oriented campaign and bring new people into the political process. But I also hope that we all remember, and this is a message not just to our opponents, but to those who support me as well, that we will need to come together in a few months and unite this party and this nation because the right-wing Republicans we oppose must not be allowed to gain the presidency.

just a quick update on the delegate count:

Hillary: 394
Bernie: 42

perception is a funny thing.

it's fairly inevitable. Nate Silver has been predicting it for months, but for some reason we are ignoring him this year because he's telling us something we don't want to hear (much like the 2014 Senate results where he predicted a big Republican swing).

edit: I'm not saying anything against Bernie with the above. I like Bernie. It's just facts.

CalvinBall wrote:just a quick update on the delegate count:

Hillary: 394
Bernie: 42

perception is a funny thing.

Plus HRC is poised to do a nice run of wins if she doesn't fuck it up

Nevada- ahead by double digits in polling
SC- almost no chance she doesn't win here
Michigan- yet another extremely strong lead for her here
Florida- ahead by quite a lot as well
NC- see SC
OH- Sanders best shot to win one but as of now HRC has the lead in polls here

CalvinBall wrote:just a quick update on the delegate count:

Hillary: 394
Bernie: 42

perception is a funny thing.

A majority of Hillary's are superdelegates which are not yet pledged (they cast their lot in July at the DNC).

no, i know.

but even last night, with sanders destroying her, he only netted 4 delegates (13-9). when you factor in the super delegates he lost 15-13.

a lot of super delegates aren't going to switch their vote to a guy that hasn't been a democrat until he wanted to run for president

The Crimson Cyclone wrote:

after my heart, tim duncan fan i guess

The Crimson Cyclone wrote:so at what point do the establishment GOP candidates begin to coalesce and get together and decide to all drop out but one with whom they'll all stand behind?

as it stands right now, with Rubio, Bush, Kasich and Christie all getting 8-16% each (using NH as an example), none of them will ever get enough support individually to take on Trump. How many states will they let him win before they realize that it's the only hope of beating him or are their own egos just too big to get in the way?

That went out the window when Christie committed a murder/suicide on Rubio at the debate last Saturday. Rubio was the last hope for the "establishment" candidates but absolutely had to finish 2nd in NH. 5th place is a complete disaster and now his flaws are magnified for the world to see and mock.

The "establishment" candidate will end up being Trump. With the specter of Cruz being the alternative choice and nominee, the Washington R's will hold their noses and get behind Trump in that battle. Robert Costa reported last night there could be multiple "establishment" figures endorsing Trump in the coming days.

Christie is done. Kasich will soon be out of money and doesn't play in any of the upcoming states. Rubio can only get back in this thing if he has a huge positive moment that somehow makes people forget about the debate. Jebby has a ton of money but is everything people are going out and voting against in this cycle. His only shot is to finish 1st or 2nd in SC which I don't see happening.

South Carolina is going to be a bloodbath between Trump, Cruz and Bush. Trump has a great shot to take control of this primary with a win down there. It's going to be YUUUUUUUGE.

Warszawa wrote:85% of under 30 year olds voting for sanders in NH

Everybody gets a trophy

pacino wrote:a lot of super delegates aren't going to switch their vote to a guy that hasn't been a democrat until he wanted to run for president

Agreed, unless he has a strong showing in the rest of the primaries (I don't think he will).

Superdelegates make up about 15% of the delegate total for the Dems. If, somehow, the Bern has a 10-20% pledged delegate lead going into the DNC I cannot see them not getting in line to make him look stronger.

The Crimson Cyclone wrote:

CalvinBall wrote:just a quick update on the delegate count:

Hillary: 394
Bernie: 42

perception is a funny thing.

Plus HRC is poised to do a nice run of wins if she doesn't fuck it up

Nevada- ahead by double digits in polling
SC- almost no chance she doesn't win here
Michigan- yet another extremely strong lead for her here
Florida- ahead by quite a lot as well
NC- see SC
OH- Sanders best shot to win one but as of now HRC has the lead in polls here

Most of those states have no polls from January if not longer...

For what its worth I think Brant's analysis of how it plays out now on the R side is correct. Bush won't go away because of money. Rubio is really wounded because Christie took him out and Kasich isn't polling well in the next series of states. Unless the other establishment guys bow out soon its Trump v. Cruz for a while. On the D side, Hillary is the Dems version of too big to fail. The only question is how wounded she is at the time she wins the nomination, but frankly the American electorate has about a 4-6 week attention span so she'll be rehabilitated by election day and beats either Trump or Cruz handily.

There's two things I've loved thus far........

1. Tons of people are voting. Record turnout in both Iowa and NH. Thank you Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump.

2. This is the closest to a political revolution we've ever been in my view. Two anti-establishment outsiders, completely different ideologies, massive support. I'm loving it.

Brantt wrote:There's two things I've loved thus far........

1. Tons of people are voting. Record turnout in both Iowa and NH. Thank you Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump.

2. This is the closest to a political revolution we've ever been in my view. Two anti-establishment outsiders, completely different ideologies, massive support. I'm loving it.

I really like the idea of tossing aside the establishment. I just wish it wasn't an idiot blowhard like Trump and a farilytale Robin Hood.

I'd vote for Sanders over Trump, but both of these guys are scary in their misperceptions of the world and basic math.

The wildcard is Bloomberg but he's going to have to make a decision before he really knows whether Hillary will ultimately prevail. If its Hillary-Trump-Bloomberg, Hillary wins easily. If its Bernie-Trump-Bloomberg I think Bloomberg can actually win the Presidency.

pacino wrote:If hes one of us anxiety-americans now I'm gonna vote for him

There is a special place in hell for anxiety-americans that do not support other anxiety-americans.