Repealing and Vetoing Our Way Forward (Politics Thread)

Re: Repealing and Vetoing Our Way Forward (Politics Thread)

Postby TomatoPie » Mon Feb 16, 2015 15:45:40

drsmooth wrote:
TomatoPie wrote:Vaguely political facts

1950: 1 out of 5000 people worldwide died of combat


gonna have to see a source and method on that. Seems wildly high, in 1950.



As Steven Pinker showed in the 2011 book Better Angels of Our Nature, total casualties of combat, including indirect casualties from the economic harm associated with fighting, have been declining, even as the global population has risen. In 1950, one person in 5,000 worldwide died owing to combat; by 2010, this measure was down to one person in 300,000. In recent years, far more people have been killed by car crashes than by battle. Simultaneously, per capita military expenditure has shrunk. My favorite statistic about the world: the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute reports that, adjusting to today’s dollars, global per capita military spending has declined by one-third in the past quarter century.


http://www.theatlantic.com/features/arc ... 00/379338/
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Re: Repealing and Vetoing Our Way Forward (Politics Thread)

Postby Bucky » Mon Feb 16, 2015 15:56:03

So, per capita military spending is decreasing for the world as a whole, but for the U.S....not so much!!!


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Re: Repealing and Vetoing Our Way Forward (Politics Thread)

Postby Bucky » Mon Feb 16, 2015 15:58:06

geez, and using the same quarter-century timeline as the author, we're up like 7/8ths!

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Re: Repealing and Vetoing Our Way Forward (Politics Thread)

Postby drsmooth » Mon Feb 16, 2015 18:00:53

TomatoPie wrote:
drsmooth wrote:
TomatoPie wrote:Vaguely political facts

1950: 1 out of 5000 people worldwide died of combat


gonna have to see a source and method on that. Seems wildly high, in 1950.



As Steven Pinker showed in the 2011 book Better Angels of Our Nature, total casualties of combat, including indirect casualties from the economic harm associated with fighting, have been declining, even as the global population has risen. In 1950, one person in 5,000 worldwide died owing to combat; by 2010, this measure was down to one person in 300,000. In recent years, far more people have been killed by car crashes than by battle. Simultaneously, per capita military expenditure has shrunk. My favorite statistic about the world: the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute reports that, adjusting to today’s dollars, global per capita military spending has declined by one-third in the past quarter century.



here's the very rough math I can do so far - base figures from WHO, CIA,various googlish sources

about 2.5 billion people on the planet in 1950
20 deaths per thousand
1 in 5,000 deaths due to combat ~=10,000 deaths due to combat

about 6 billion people now
8 deaths per thousand
1 in 300,000 deaths due to combat ~=200 deaths due to combat

- I severely underestimated total annual deaths
- I overestimated the reduction in absolute deaths due to the big change in the "combat deaths per thousands" factor
- I'm guessing some pretty good advances in reducing deaths due to combat activity
- current annual combat deaths figure still feels pretty low
- I feel like Pinker needs to reconsider what constitutes deaths in combat, given that 'combat' is becoming something different than rival militaries popping away at each other'

ok, now I'll go look at the Atlantic article 8-)
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Re: Repealing and Vetoing Our Way Forward (Politics Thread)

Postby jerseyhoya » Mon Feb 16, 2015 18:07:51

It's 1 in 5000 people not 1 in 5000 deaths

So 500,000 combat deaths in 1950, probably mostly in Korea

~23,000 in 2010

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Re: Repealing and Vetoing Our Way Forward (Politics Thread)

Postby Bucky » Mon Feb 16, 2015 18:30:25

dang smoothy, sorry, i forgot to send you an invite to the '7 billionth person' party last year

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Re: Repealing and Vetoing Our Way Forward (Politics Thread)

Postby Monkeyboy » Mon Feb 16, 2015 20:25:52

I would have been surprised if military spending per capita was up worldwide given the rise in population and the increased ability to fight with smaller armies.
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Re: Repealing and Vetoing Our Way Forward (Politics Thread)

Postby JFLNYC » Mon Feb 16, 2015 20:33:08

Are we including terrorist group military spending?
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Re: Repealing and Vetoing Our Way Forward (Politics Thread)

Postby drsmooth » Mon Feb 16, 2015 21:03:15

jerseyhoya wrote:It's 1 in 5000 people not 1 in 5000 deaths

So 500,000 combat deaths in 1950, probably mostly in Korea

~23,000 in 2010


Jerz, thanks - I had a strong feeling I was doing some left-handed thinking there. Not sure why I decided that the author was delineating combat deaths as a share of all deaths, rather than all people.

Makes much more sense your way
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Re: Repealing and Vetoing Our Way Forward (Politics Thread)

Postby TenuredVulture » Mon Feb 16, 2015 23:10:00

I wonder if the train derailment and subsequent oil spill in W VA changes the conversation about the Keystone pipeline at all. I mean, I know it won't, because it's been years since that debate was about anything other than empty symbolism, but still.
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Re: Repealing and Vetoing Our Way Forward (Politics Thread)

Postby jamiethekiller » Mon Feb 16, 2015 23:18:15

leave me out of this

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Re: Repealing and Vetoing Our Way Forward (Politics Thread)

Postby pacino » Mon Feb 16, 2015 23:56:57

Nobody gave a shit with the happenings in North Dakota, why start now? There's this idea out there that the pipeline is some job creator and some 'get us off foreign oil!!!' thing and no evidence to the contrary seems to affect anyone for it.
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Re: Repealing and Vetoing Our Way Forward (Politics Thread)

Postby jerseyhoya » Tue Feb 17, 2015 00:03:42

What ISIS Really Wants

This is really long. I learned a lot. I highly recommend reading it if one is interested.

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Re: Repealing and Vetoing Our Way Forward (Politics Thread)

Postby swishnicholson » Tue Feb 17, 2015 00:57:30

jerseyhoya wrote:What ISIS Really Wants

This is really long. I learned a lot. I highly recommend reading it if one is interested.


Glad to get, well not really another perspective, since it sounded very familiar, but at least a somewhat comprehensive one. He seems to have traveled everywhere, from Princeton, to Melbourne, to London, to discover the heart of Isis. But he didn't really convincingly arrive there.

It's good to understand the religious tenets that provide its basis, I agree. But, since he agrees that its futile to attack hearts and minds that only gets you so far. Plus the Isis movement obviously involves a huge mobilization of military and social power, and it is this application of power that presents the problem to the US, as it does even more so to the locally affected areas. Does an understanding of other motives really trump the opportunity to grab power in a vacuum as its motivating force? I'm not totally convinced, and at any rate we'll probably make more headway giving it preeminence anyway. In any case, the actions he suggest don't really vary from those benighted souls who aren't quite as up to date on the modern Islamic mind as Mr. Wood:

Yet another invasion and occupation would confirm that suspicion, and bolster recruitment. Add the incompetence of our previous efforts as occupiers, and we have reason for reluctance. The rise of ISIS, after all, happened only because our previous occupation created space for Zarqawi and his followers. Who knows the consequences of another botched job?

Given everything we know about the Islamic State, continuing to slowly bleed it, through air strikes and proxy warfare, appears the best of bad military options. Neither the Kurds nor the Shia will ever subdue and control the whole Sunni heartland of Syria and Iraq—they are hated there, and have no appetite for such an adventure anyway. But they can keep the Islamic State from fulfilling its duty to expand. And with every month that it fails to expand, it resembles less the conquering state of the Prophet Muhammad than yet another Middle Eastern government failing to bring prosperity to its people.


Admittedly, part of the problem with the article is the tone, in which he disingenuously keeps referring to what "we" don't know, when he means you the reader or the specific clueless political leaders he wants to tag. But it's still a useful article, I think, for understanding the situation if not for identifying preferred tactics or behaviors. And you have to like this quote:


Last fall, I visited the Philadelphia mosque of Breton Pocius, 28, a Salafi imam who goes by the name Abdullah. His mosque is on the border between the crime-ridden Northern Liberties neighborhood and a gentrifying area that one might call Dar al-Hipster; his beard allows him to pass in the latter zone almost unnoticed
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Re: Repealing and Vetoing Our Way Forward (Politics Thread)

Postby SK790 » Tue Feb 17, 2015 03:52:47

pacino wrote:Nobody gave a shit with the happenings in North Dakota, why start now? There's this idea out there that the pipeline is some job creator and some 'get us off foreign oil!!!' thing and no evidence to the contrary seems to affect anyone for it.

Or Arkansas. Or Louisiana. I'd bet over 75% of the country has no idea there have been any significant oil spills over the past 2 years let alone the 6(arguably 7) we've actually had.

Let's just keep extracting finite resources from the planet while ruining it like fucking parasites, though.
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Re: Repealing and Vetoing Our Way Forward (Politics Thread)

Postby TomatoPie » Tue Feb 17, 2015 08:02:19

Have not yet read the link about ISIS that JH posted, but if I had only one source of information, I'd want it to be The Atlantic.

How about making nice with Iran? http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/arc ... an/383512/
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Re: Repealing and Vetoing Our Way Forward (Politics Thread)

Postby TenuredVulture » Tue Feb 17, 2015 10:32:36

I'm probably as anti-internal combustion engine we could easily stop 90% of our driving if we wanted to as anyone. But we're going to be using oil for stuff for quite some time. We need to move that oil from the ground to refineries. This is, inevitably, nasty, nasty business--there is no "risk free" way of moving oil around. Pipelines leak, trains and trucks crash. Keystone may be less bad than trucking the oil out of Canada.
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Re: Repealing and Vetoing Our Way Forward (Politics Thread)

Postby The Crimson Cyclone » Tue Feb 17, 2015 10:36:36

TenuredVulture wrote:I'm probably as anti-internal combustion engine we could easily stop 90% of our driving if we wanted to as anyone. But we're going to be using oil for stuff for quite some time. We need to move that oil from the ground to refineries. This is, inevitably, nasty, nasty business--there is no "risk free" way of moving oil around. Pipelines leak, trains and trucks crash. Keystone may be less bad than trucking the oil out of Canada.



but Keystone is designed to take the oil OUT of the US
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Re: Repealing and Vetoing Our Way Forward (Politics Thread)

Postby TomatoPie » Tue Feb 17, 2015 10:52:05

plenty of oil for everybody.

Great time to invest in energy, BTW
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Re: Repealing and Vetoing Our Way Forward (Politics Thread)

Postby The Crimson Cyclone » Tue Feb 17, 2015 11:05:09

TomatoPie wrote:plenty of oil for everybody.

Great time to invest in energy, BTW


http://www.theverge.com/2015/2/13/80336 ... -utilities
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