POLITICS thread: In appreciation of Rob Ford

Re: POLITICS thread: In appreciation of Rob Ford

Postby Wolfgang622 » Fri Jan 31, 2014 19:54:00

"Evidence exists" to prove a Kennedy assassination conspiracy, big foot, and ancient aliens too.

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Re: POLITICS thread: In appreciation of Rob Ford

Postby Wolfgang622 » Fri Jan 31, 2014 19:56:22

Also, this guy is attempting to blackmail Christie with information he supposedly has... but allowed his blackmail attempt to get out before he got what he wanted, and without a trace of the evidence he supposedly has.

But we should believe whatever this guy has to say, for sure.

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Re: POLITICS thread: In appreciation of Rob Ford

Postby slugsrbad » Fri Jan 31, 2014 20:26:09

TenuredVulture wrote:First, in my day, we would often drink really crappy bourbon on the 6th floor of Hickman Hall regularly. Carey McWilliams, rest in peace, would pour shots into cups of equally crappy coffee. The coffee served to amplify the bourbon smell which would pervade the whole 2nd hall.

Second, when it comes to political scandal, it seems to me exoneration is pretty rare. I suppose Clinton/Whitewater could be one prominent example, and Ray Donovan might be another. But the pattern tends to be where there's smoke there's fire. (I'm not suggesting innocence in either of my examples, but it is certainly true that no one ever came up with enough evidence to prove wrongdoing.)

My standard on resignation is Elliot Spitzer--if what you did was worse than what Spitzer did, you should resign. I think Christie may well be over that line.


She wasn't too bad

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Re: POLITICS thread: In appreciation of Rob Ford

Postby drsmooth » Fri Jan 31, 2014 22:59:15

and then there's lawyers' exasperating inclination to "1st, do nothing" which is why Stepien's taking the 5th on the NJ legislature's subpoenas looks worse than it probably is
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Re: POLITICS thread: In appreciation of Rob Ford

Postby jerseyhoya » Sat Feb 01, 2014 02:46:50


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Re: POLITICS thread: In appreciation of Rob Ford

Postby Phan In Phlorida » Sat Feb 01, 2014 04:46:54

mozartpc27 wrote:"Evidence exists" to prove a Kennedy assassination conspiracy, big foot, and ancient aliens too.

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Re: POLITICS thread: In appreciation of Rob Ford

Postby Monkeyboy » Sat Feb 01, 2014 21:10:49

Hard to argue with this.., Marshall says Christie is toast.

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/yep-hes-toast

Then you have the immediate issue that Team Christie's argument, not the charge but their argument, their defense is that a group of close Christie insiders did this petty, vindictive, sleazy thing. Christie just didn't know about it.

That's a tough sell against the quality of your judgment and your qualities as a leader. Again, even if he's totally innocent.

But finally, look at what we have today: Christie either declaring or more like joining war with David Wildstein, something that looks to be no-holds-barred, nasty and to the (political or legal) death. Team Christie is arguing that Wildstein is a lifetime sleaze and liar who would do or so anything to save his own hide (all quite possibly true) ... who Christie appointed to a position of great responsibility at the Port Authority.

Who did this with a key Christie insider.

Again, that's Christie's defense, not the accusation.

But here's the killer for Christie. The 2016 primary is already underway, lining up political professionals, money people, power brokers in key states. That's all happening now and it will continue through this year. Next year, the actual campaign starts. But a lot will have happened by then.

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Re: POLITICS thread: In appreciation of Rob Ford

Postby Houshphandzadeh » Mon Feb 03, 2014 10:52:30

I'm still really doubtful that anyone will care about this in 2016 or even 2015

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Re: POLITICS thread: In appreciation of Rob Ford

Postby drsmooth » Mon Feb 03, 2014 11:06:00

Houshphandzadeh wrote:I'm still really doubtful that anyone will care about this in 2016 or even 2015


if you follow the thrust of MBoy's post, you're right, but irrelevant for Christie, since what matters about it is happening right now
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Re: POLITICS thread: In appreciation of Rob Ford

Postby jerseyhoya » Mon Feb 03, 2014 11:55:39

The TPM post might make some sense if Christie was losing top staff/donors to another mainstream type candidate, but that isn't happening since there isn't another establishment friendly candidate actively lining up a run. The type of people Christie needs are hanging on the sidelines, not getting behind potential rivals. Overanxious wishcasting by Josh Marshall.

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Re: POLITICS thread: In appreciation of Rob Ford

Postby Monkeyboy » Mon Feb 03, 2014 12:10:33

BUt what do you think will happen when people find out about the rumor that Christie is involved in human trafficking through the Port Authority?
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Re: POLITICS thread: In appreciation of Rob Ford

Postby dajafi » Mon Feb 03, 2014 12:15:28

You probably could posit two brackets for the R nomination, establishment and insurgent. The division isn't always that clear, but it's a decent frame. Christie's competitors in the former are, potentially, Jeb Bush, John Kasich, maybe Huckabee, I guess Ryan and Walker. (Paul, Cruz and I suppose Rubio and maybe Santorum are the others in the insurgent group. Maybe a better frame than establishment/insurgent is governors vs. talkers.)

I think that of the folks who would be most into Christie, Jeb is the most acceptable alternative. And he seems only about 50-50 to make a run, if that. So the loss to Christie in terms of "invisible primary" stuff might really be that he can't as easily lock up investments and commitments, essentially scaring competitors out of the race (as Hillary is) before they jump in. The longer this lingers, the better someone like Kasich starts to look.

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Re: POLITICS thread: In appreciation of Rob Ford

Postby jerseyhoya » Mon Feb 03, 2014 12:32:35

Both Kasich and Walker have competitive reelections in November that they have to focus on before they can start dreaming of the White House. Jeb doesn't have to do much groundwork at this point because if he decides to jump in, the Bush name that'll hurt him when it comes time for people to vote does a lot of the work on the raising $$ and assembling a team front. The lack of effort Jeb needs to do at this point means I think he'll put off a decision for a while. Ryan seems committed to being Ways and Means Chair in the upcoming Congress, and I think the field would have to be a 2012 type disaster for him to jump in.

If Christie gets hit directly either through Kelly and Wildstein both testifying that orders came from on high or some document tying him to the decision, then he's screwed. If he's been telling the truth, he's lost some of the chance to get a huge head start on potential rivals, but nothing insurmountable. He's still going around the country fundraising for the RGA and making contacts, and the longer we get from some bombshell, the more comfortable people will get with him running again.

People are overreacting because that's what the Internet was invented for. You can't win a presidential nomination these days without some members of the smart set declaring you toast at least once or twice.

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Re: POLITICS thread: In appreciation of Rob Ford

Postby drsmooth » Mon Feb 03, 2014 12:47:38

dajafi wrote:I think that of the folks who would be most into Christie, Jeb is the most acceptable alternative.


want this to happen, to see ads pointing out he's the candidate even a mother doesn't love*




*(as a candidate, for reasons Babs hasn't elaborated on, but voters have attention spans the size of this type dontcha know)
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Re: POLITICS thread: In appreciation of Rob Ford

Postby swishnicholson » Mon Feb 03, 2014 13:01:22

Jeez Louise, is there a more depressing thought than the 2016 election being between Jeb bush and Hilary Clinton?
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Re: POLITICS thread: In appreciation of Rob Ford

Postby The Nightman Cometh » Mon Feb 03, 2014 13:23:04

Yeah, Rand Paul as president.
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Re: POLITICS thread: In appreciation of Rob Ford

Postby TenuredVulture » Mon Feb 03, 2014 13:49:09

I kind a think Rubio is mostly establishment these days. I think the Tea Party has devolved to the point where it hates brown people more than taxes.

Really, there's a division among insurgent Reps between Club for Growth types and Tea Party types. There's overlap on taxes and Obamacare, but differences on immigration and social issues generally.
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Re: POLITICS thread: In appreciation of Rob Ford

Postby jerseyhoya » Mon Feb 03, 2014 13:51:26


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Re: POLITICS thread: In appreciation of Rob Ford

Postby Wolfgang622 » Mon Feb 03, 2014 14:54:46

jerseyhoya wrote:Both Kasich and Walker have competitive reelections in November that they have to focus on before they can start dreaming of the White House. Jeb doesn't have to do much groundwork at this point because if he decides to jump in, the Bush name that'll hurt him when it comes time for people to vote does a lot of the work on the raising $$ and assembling a team front. The lack of effort Jeb needs to do at this point means I think he'll put off a decision for a while. Ryan seems committed to being Ways and Means Chair in the upcoming Congress, and I think the field would have to be a 2012 type disaster for him to jump in.


Jeb won't run. I think at this point he's more in it for helping his son move up the ranks than anything else.
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Re: POLITICS thread: In appreciation of Rob Ford

Postby Wolfgang622 » Mon Feb 03, 2014 14:56:54

drsmooth wrote:
dajafi wrote:I think that of the folks who would be most into Christie, Jeb is the most acceptable alternative.


want this to happen, to see ads pointing out he's the candidate even a mother doesn't love*




*(as a candidate, for reasons Babs hasn't elaborated on, but voters have attention spans the size of this type dontcha know)


If there is any truth to this (where are you getting it from?), I'd imagine it has to do with Jeb's conversion to Catholicism, his wife, and the fact that he and his family are probably really pro-life. Babs definitely isn't, George H.W. wasn't until he was (for political reasons), and the same for George W. Laura Bush is pro choice.
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