The Fiscal Cliff: Politics, Not Lee

Re: The Fiscal Cliff: Politics, Not Lee

Postby CalvinBall » Mon Nov 12, 2012 14:18:23

jerseyhoya wrote:There were nine precincts in Cleveland where Romney received zero votes, the largest of which gave Obama 542 votes.


59 in philadelphia where he got 0 as well.

http://www.philly.com/philly/news/20121 ... votes.html

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Re: The Fiscal Cliff: Politics, Not Lee

Postby jerseyhoya » Mon Nov 12, 2012 14:20:33

Still, was there not one contrarian voter in those 59 divisions, where unofficial vote tallies have President Obama outscoring Romney by a combined 19,605 to 0?

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Re: The Fiscal Cliff: Politics, Not Lee

Postby CalvinBall » Mon Nov 12, 2012 14:22:31

im sure there are places obama got 0 votes too

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Re: The Fiscal Cliff: Politics, Not Lee

Postby jerseyhoya » Mon Nov 12, 2012 14:34:19

Maybe, but I'd be surprised if there were too many (any?) precincts of 100+ voters anywhere that Obama didn't get at least a vote. There really isn't any group that votes Republican like black people vote Democrat. Democrats run as well among African Americans as Republicans do among Republicans.

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Re: The Fiscal Cliff: Politics, Not Lee

Postby pacino » Mon Nov 12, 2012 14:48:22

Surprise finding: democrats voted for the democrat.

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Re: The Fiscal Cliff: Politics, Not Lee

Postby td11 » Mon Nov 12, 2012 14:51:35

like 89% of romney's total vote came from whites
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Re: The Fiscal Cliff: Politics, Not Lee

Postby Wolfgang622 » Mon Nov 12, 2012 15:05:18

jerseyhoya wrote:
mozartpc27 wrote:
pacino wrote:More like big segregation

Precisely. Name one reason that Romney gave poor minorities to consider voting for him.

I'll wait.

School choice


Did Romney go to American cities and hit that hard? How often did he even mention it? (Answer: occasionally, in passing, without offering anything except a very basic nod at the idea of school choice - no details given, etc.)

So, in theory this might be a reason, but it's one that he made basically no attempt to sell, and even less of basically no attempt to sell it to the people who would most want to hear it.
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Re: The Fiscal Cliff: Politics, Not Lee

Postby JFLNYC » Mon Nov 12, 2012 15:16:32

School choice (aka vouchers) is bad for those lower on the socio-economic scale. Primary and secondary private schools will become min-universities, with decisions on admittance being made in large part on the basis of socio-economic status of the students, including which parents are more likely to contribute financially to the school. In effect, the choice goes to the schools, not the students.

Public schools will be left with the less gifted students of poorer parents. The voucher system is designed for them to fail and, when they do, conservatives will cite it as an example of the virtues of private schools.
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Re: The Fiscal Cliff: Politics, Not Lee

Postby jerseyhoya » Mon Nov 12, 2012 15:49:50

JFLNYC wrote:School choice (aka vouchers) is bad for those lower on the socio-economic scale. Primary and secondary private schools will become min-universities, with decisions on admittance being made in large part on the basis of socio-economic status of the students, including which parents are more likely to contribute financially to the school. In effect, the choice goes to the schools, not the students.

I have a hard time imagining that being the outcome for inner city parochial, private and charter schools. In a lot of these neighborhoods there's very little socioeconomic diversity. Has that occurred in places where vouchers are used? I've never even heard that given as a reason to oppose vouchers.

JFLNYC wrote:Public schools will be left with the less gifted students of poorer parents. The voucher system is designed for them to fail and, when they do, conservatives will cite it as an example of the virtues of private schools.

Inner city public schools have largely failed. They didn't need vouchers to do that.

A poll we did at Eagleton last year found blacks in New Jersey more likely to support expanding charter schools and the usage of vouchers to send kids to private schools.

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Re: The Fiscal Cliff: Politics, Not Lee

Postby pacino » Mon Nov 12, 2012 15:54:39

Charter schools in Philly have been a failure

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Re: The Fiscal Cliff: Politics, Not Lee

Postby pacino » Mon Nov 12, 2012 15:55:13

Charter schools in Philly have been a failure

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Re: The Fiscal Cliff: Politics, Not Lee

Postby CalvinBall » Mon Nov 12, 2012 15:55:19

td11 wrote:like 89% of romney's total vote came from whites


if only white men could vote:

Image

if only men could vote:

Image

only white men and women:

Image

if voting age was still 24:

Image

actual election:

Image

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Re: The Fiscal Cliff: Politics, Not Lee

Postby Grotewold » Mon Nov 12, 2012 16:01:25

Georgia and the Carolinas need to get with the program

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Re: The Fiscal Cliff: Politics, Not Lee

Postby JFLNYC » Mon Nov 12, 2012 16:07:35

jerseyhoya wrote:I have a hard time imagining that being the outcome for inner city parochial, private and charter schools. In a lot of these neighborhoods there's very little socioeconomic diversity. Has that occurred in places where vouchers are used? I've never even heard that given as a reason to oppose vouchers.


That's a monolithic, terribly general assumption about the socio-economic status of all families in all inner-city neighborhoods. I don't have a tough time at all seeing it happen. Once you give those schools the choice of which students are accepted, the brightest and most advantaged students (even relatively speaking) will go to some schools, while the slower, less advantaged students will end up together.

jerseyhoya wrote:Inner city public schools have largely failed. They didn't need vouchers to do that.

A poll we did at Eagleton last year found blacks in New Jersey more likely to support expanding charter schools and the usage of vouchers to send kids to private schools.


Of course that's what they think because they're laboring under the misconception that they'll actually be able to choose the school to which they'll send their children.
Last edited by JFLNYC on Mon Nov 12, 2012 16:08:10, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: The Fiscal Cliff: Politics, Not Lee

Postby jerseyhoya » Mon Nov 12, 2012 16:07:42

pacino wrote:Charter schools in Philly have been a failure

By what metric? Compared to what?

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Re: The Fiscal Cliff: Politics, Not Lee

Postby dajafi » Mon Nov 12, 2012 16:52:35

Tom Edsall steals my point* about the Republican coalition now being less ideologically coherent than the Democrats'.

Throughout much of the period of conservative domination of presidential elections from 1968 to 1988 — and in terms of Congressional power from 1994 to 2006 — the Republican Party had a major election-day edge: there was far more ideological cohesion and less divisive conflict on the right than on the left. Conservatives, from white evangelicals to corporate C.E.O.s, found common ground in their support for an aggressive national defense and in their opposition to what they saw as a coercive, redistributive tax collecting and intrusively regulatory domestic government.

The left was often split: between environmentalists and pro-development unions; between proponents and opponents of affirmative action; between law-and-order whites and liberal advocates of criminal defendants’ rights. As a result, the Democratic Party was vulnerable to Republican wedge issue strategies that produced such famous political commercials as Jesse Helms’s “Hands” — a k a. “White Hands” — and Ronald Reagan’s “Bear”

More recently, there has been a steady diminution of conflict and a growing consensus on the left culminating in the 2008 and 2012 election victories. Issues now linked – clustered — in the minds of many Democratic voters include not only traditional socio-cultural, moral and racial issues like women’s, minority and gay rights, abortion and contraception, non-marital child-bearing, and the obligation of government to provide a safety net, but also to matters pertaining to the overarching role of government in generating greater social justice.

In this view, the achievement of a just society requires a government active in pursuing a progressive distribution of income (through the tax code, for example), and the reduction of armed conflict, as well as the active regulation of matters as diverse as sustainable development, environmental protection and consumer-friendly reform of the finance and banking sectors.

Essentially, the new core of the party – minorities, unmarried men and women, young voters and whites with advanced degrees – is in general agreement on this broader spectrum of issues, forming a coalition of shared ideas.


Meanwhile the Republicans are trying to reconcile David Koch and Mike Huckabee, David Frum and Erick Erickson, Bill Kristol and Ron Paul, the Club for Growth and whatever the Christian Coalition now calls itself. I don't think the party will really split into a libertarian half that's liberal on social policy and ferocious regarding deregulation and a reactionary-communitarian half that's semi-okay with unions and really loathes Teh Gays, but it's not impossible.


*not really

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Re: The Fiscal Cliff: Politics, Not Lee

Postby JFLNYC » Mon Nov 12, 2012 17:00:27

Speaking of fiscal cliffs, what about Josh Hamilton?
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Re: The Fiscal Cliff: Politics, Not Lee

Postby pacino » Mon Nov 12, 2012 17:49:55

jerseyhoya wrote:
pacino wrote:Charter schools in Philly have been a failure

By what metric? Compared to what?

by RAND, compared to schools restructured by the district itself and kept from making profits
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Calvinball wrote:Pacino was right.

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Re: The Fiscal Cliff: Politics, Not Lee

Postby td11 » Mon Nov 12, 2012 18:14:28

Image
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Re: The Fiscal Cliff: Politics, Not Lee

Postby jerseyhoya » Mon Nov 12, 2012 18:33:40

JFLNYC wrote:
jerseyhoya wrote:I have a hard time imagining that being the outcome for inner city parochial, private and charter schools. In a lot of these neighborhoods there's very little socioeconomic diversity. Has that occurred in places where vouchers are used? I've never even heard that given as a reason to oppose vouchers.

That's a monolithic, terribly general assumption about the socio-economic status of all families in all inner-city neighborhoods. I don't have a tough time at all seeing it happen. Once you give those schools the choice of which students are accepted, the brightest and most advantaged students (even relatively speaking) will go to some schools, while the slower, less advantaged students will end up together.

jerseyhoya wrote:Inner city public schools have largely failed. They didn't need vouchers to do that.

A poll we did at Eagleton last year found blacks in New Jersey more likely to support expanding charter schools and the usage of vouchers to send kids to private schools.


Of course that's what they think because they're laboring under the misconception that they'll actually be able to choose the school to which they'll send their children.

I didn't say all families in all inner city neighborhoods. But in a lot of inner city neighborhoods, there isn't a whole heck of a lot of socioeconomic diversity. The range seems to go from below the poverty line to just scraping by. If you think that's a monolithic, terribly general assumption, I don't know what to tell you. Just for some Philadelphia data broken down by zip code - lots of zip codes with median Household Income at $30k or less, 5% or fewer of households making over 100k per year, 1/3-1/2 of households living below the poverty line. Most of the poorer zip codes show up at the top/bottom of each list, and they're concentrated in North, West and South Philly, with the better $$ neighborhoods in Center City, and the Northeast and Northwest corners.

If families have the kind of money to pay their way into good schools, they're probably doing that already. I don't really see how making vouchers available would make that problem any worse. It would, however, open more doors to kids from families which cannot currently afford any other option other than the public school.

And if vouchers were implemented, a lot of them would be able to choose the school where they were going to send their children, as opposed to the status quo in many places which means one option - the shitty public school.

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