The Fiscal Cliff: Politics, Not Lee

Re: The Fiscal Cliff: Politics, Not Lee

Postby pacino » Sun Nov 11, 2012 09:46:42

jerseyhoya wrote:Looking forward to the fiscal cliff compromise on taxes basically being Romney's tax plan with lower rates and the cap on deductions (tho marginal rates being a bit higher than Romney wanted).

doubtful. the democratic congressmen became a lot better with these elections, and most of the conservative democrats are gone. also, obama has said multiple times he won't buckle on these taxes. completely rolling over to Boehner is doubtful. if he does, he won't be getting anything else done for 4 years.
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Re: The Fiscal Cliff: Politics, Not Lee

Postby pacino » Sun Nov 11, 2012 09:48:57

i think we'll go over this supposed cliff and everyone will realize it wasn't much of a cliff. then, democrats have all the leverage.

only in washington is a 'grand bargain' one where democrats give up everything they've fought for for 70+ years.
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Re: The Fiscal Cliff: Politics, Not Lee

Postby dajafi » Sun Nov 11, 2012 11:17:04

I've said this before, but I really, really don't get why the top rate kicks in at $250k. A decent compromise I think would be to leave the rate at the current 35% up to a million, push it to 39% there, and set another rate (43%) that kicks in at $4m.

Do that, end the vile carried interest dedication, phase in some means testing for Medicare, push the SS start age back for white-collar workers like me, strengthen the IPAB and we're probably done.

And I will say to pacino's point that these programs are supposed to change and evolve. I don't want to see them take the full hit either, if defense spending is untouched and the Wall Streeters keep a tax rate lower than mine. But we should embrace rather than resist ways to make the entitlement programs stronger without harming their beneficiaries.

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Re: The Fiscal Cliff: Politics, Not Lee

Postby Bucky » Sun Nov 11, 2012 11:19:54

Dajafi for president. There's eons between someone earning $250K and someone earning $1M.

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Re: The Fiscal Cliff: Politics, Not Lee

Postby Wolfgang622 » Sun Nov 11, 2012 11:21:44

The power of the second term is you don't have to worry about being reelected, and this thing is coming so early in his second term President Obama could do something big and unpopular and the party could still recover from it by 2016.

If I were him, I'd simply allow ALL the Bush tax cuts to expire, vetoing any extensions. That would finally put an end to what should not have been done in the first place.

Or, at least I would convince Republicans I was prepared to do just that.
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Re: The Fiscal Cliff: Politics, Not Lee

Postby Youseff » Sun Nov 11, 2012 11:50:58

Sandy is not the reason Obama won. Anybody that tries to spin that narrative is either dumb or a liar.
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Re: The Fiscal Cliff: Politics, Not Lee

Postby Bucky » Sun Nov 11, 2012 12:15:43

yes it is

if by that you mean the guy who wrote "fourth of july, asbury park (sandy)"

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Re: The Fiscal Cliff: Politics, Not Lee

Postby dajafi » Sun Nov 11, 2012 12:27:22

If comprehensive immigration reform isn't passed within a year, we probably need a new constitutional convention or something. It's now pretty much in everybody's interest to get that done: the Democrats because they owe it, and the Republicans to get the issue off the table.

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Re: The Fiscal Cliff: Politics, Not Lee

Postby TenuredVulture » Sun Nov 11, 2012 12:55:41

drsmooth wrote:This guy Frum ain't dum

Douthat basically tries to do the Cliff Notes version (see what I did there?). While he succeeds in his homely way I guess, he adds this goodie:

The bad news is that unlike a pander on immigration, a new economic agenda probably wouldn’t be favorably received by the party’s big donors, who tend to be quite happy with the Republican Party’s current positioning.


The problem is one of incentives. This quote is key:
But after spending billions of those donors’ dollars with nothing to show for it, perhaps Republicans should seek a different path: one in which they raise a little less money but win a few more votes.


But those billions are what make the consultants rich. Really--what's the incentive to win? I mean, maybe Rove is done (but he'll probably still command handsome speaker fees) but the rest of them are already cadging money from donors, getting work with various "exploratory committees" and the like. As they discovered in the years following electoral success, governing is a lot harder than running campaigns.

Now, I do suspect the Rs are going to do something on immigration, and they'll probably soften their rhetoric on some social issues. But that's not necessarily a winning strategy either. The Reagan coalition is aging and falling apart. It was never inevitable--there was no intrinsic reason that small government advocates would make common cause with social conservatives and the pro-business elites. If they lose social conservatives, where do they get their votes? There simply aren't enough small government types out there. And much of the pro-business elite has already found themselves quite happy with much Democratic policy.
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Re: The Fiscal Cliff: Politics, Not Lee

Postby TenuredVulture » Sun Nov 11, 2012 13:01:20

Also, if I'm the Democrats, I'm coming up with something right now to somehow encourage two parent families. I have no idea if the federal government can actually do anything that will make a difference, but I'm going to try anyway. And Obama is the guy to do it.

The logic here is that first, I think it's good policy. But second, I really do think the Republicans have a huge problem with social conservatives--more than just they risk alienating them if they moderate their tone. It's that after 32 years of political activism, supporting Republicans, social conservatives have absolutely nothing to show for their work. Porn is everywhere, abortion remains legal if less accessible, gays are getting married and straights aren't but having children anyway. Indeed, in the places where social conservatives are most influential, the decline of the traditional family is even more marked than in blue states--divorce and single motherhood are all the rage in flyover country.

Now, that's not to say Southern evangelicals will embrace Obama or even the Dems if they move in this direction. But it suggests a way that you can really weaken an already rickety Republican coalition.
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Re: The Fiscal Cliff: Politics, Not Lee

Postby Bucky » Sun Nov 11, 2012 13:03:17


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Re: The Fiscal Cliff: Politics, Not Lee

Postby Swiggers » Sun Nov 11, 2012 15:08:39

TenuredVulture wrote:This might be worth reading.

http://www.thedailybeast.com/newsweek/2 ... -past.html

Don't know if it really offers a way out though.


It's short on specifics, but its essential message is a good one. The Democrats remade themselves in the late '80s and '90s because their old coalition and platform was antiquated and standing in the way of progress. That is now the case with the Republicans, and they need to do the same thing.
jerseyhoya wrote:I think the reason you get yelled at is you appear to hate listening to sports talk radio, but regularly listen to sports talk radio, and then frequently post about how bad listening to sports talk radio is after you were once again listening to it.

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Re: The Fiscal Cliff: Politics, Not Lee

Postby Swiggers » Sun Nov 11, 2012 15:23:43

jerseyhoya wrote:But over the course of the campaign, a lot of national polls pointed toward the same thing the Romney people were seeing in their polling. A GOP enthusiasm gap, strong support from Independents, much closer partisan makeup of the electorate. The assumptions were very plausible. They just ended up being incorrect.


They misread the reason for the bolded. A lot of independents these days are former Republicans who left the party over social issues, W's big spending, or what have you.
jerseyhoya wrote:I think the reason you get yelled at is you appear to hate listening to sports talk radio, but regularly listen to sports talk radio, and then frequently post about how bad listening to sports talk radio is after you were once again listening to it.

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Re: The Fiscal Cliff: Politics, Not Lee

Postby dajafi » Sun Nov 11, 2012 15:45:20

Swiggers wrote:
TenuredVulture wrote:This might be worth reading.

http://www.thedailybeast.com/newsweek/2 ... -past.html

Don't know if it really offers a way out though.


It's short on specifics, but its essential message is a good one. The Democrats remade themselves in the late '80s and '90s because their old coalition and platform was antiquated and standing in the way of progress. That is now the case with the Republicans, and they need to do the same thing.


I agree, though the other thing Clinton did was to take some longstanding areas of vulnerability for the Ds off the table through policy change. The '94 crime bill, welfare reform, willingness to use force abroad, erasing the deficits--he obsoleted every attack like Reagan and Bush41 had used to crush Dems for years.

Frum's line about remembering Reagan's lyrics but forgetting his music is exactly right. Clinton and Obama worked to reform the New Deal and Great Society, casting off the pieces that were outmoded or counterproductive in order to save the essence. They showed Democrats could learn from their political and policy mistakes. The first step for the Republicans will be to admit they've even made some.

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Re: The Fiscal Cliff: Politics, Not Lee

Postby pacino » Sun Nov 11, 2012 16:13:01

Rove and Limbaugh are upset

1:55 is the killer
thephan wrote:pacino's posting is one of the more important things revealed in weeks.

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Re: The Fiscal Cliff: Politics, Not Lee

Postby pacino » Sun Nov 11, 2012 16:16:07

Image

automated phone calls seem pretty freaking unreliable

and LOL Gallup. Quit while you're behind.
thephan wrote:pacino's posting is one of the more important things revealed in weeks.

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Re: The Fiscal Cliff: Politics, Not Lee

Postby td11 » Sun Nov 11, 2012 16:39:00

that kid is still one million times better than andrew sullivan after the first debate
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Re: The Fiscal Cliff: Politics, Not Lee

Postby TenuredVulture » Sun Nov 11, 2012 16:45:41

pacino wrote:Rove and Limbaugh are upset

1:55 is the killer

Mom should've let the kids stay up until at least OH was called. True story--in 2008, OH was called of Obama pretty early, and we all knew it was over. I explained to Lil' Vulture (who was 7 at the time) that I knew Obama won. I explained to her I had a PhD in political science, and it was my job to know these things. I explained to her how I knew California was going to go for Obama. Did she believe me? Not at all. She insisted on staying up until California was called. This time around, it was more or less the same, but we were waiting on OH. At least she didn't insist on staying up until Romney conceded.
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Re: The Fiscal Cliff: Politics, Not Lee

Postby pacino » Sun Nov 11, 2012 16:53:57

BR Perfect example of people who are on welfare who shouldn't be happened at the bowling alley last night. A girl that her boyfriend was of one of the guys we were bowling against was there with probably close to a $500.00 outfit on, fancy jacket, scarf, and fancy boots. Ears pierced multiple times and multiple fancy necklaces on. Throughout the course of the night, she probably ordered about 5 rum and cokes or a drink that looked like that. I know it was alcohol because they carded her before she received her first drink. During the night she proceeds to rearrange her wallet and she took out her cards and of course the first one she takes out is a food stamps card. Ridiculous.
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KH Brad do you even know what a food stamp card looks like?
Friday at 8:49am · Like

BRYeah, I worked at a grocery store for 6 years. :)
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KH ok then you know its an access card. I have an access card and Im not on food stamps. I have one because my son receives medicaid because of his autism. I've only ever used it for his school to bill for his therapy but I stil have one. So I guess that makes me a horrible dead beat looking for handouts from the government.
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Re: The Fiscal Cliff: Politics, Not Lee

Postby Wolfgang622 » Sun Nov 11, 2012 17:03:02

TenuredVulture wrote:
pacino wrote:Rove and Limbaugh are upset

1:55 is the killer

Mom should've let the kids stay up until at least OH was called. True story--in 2008, OH was called of Obama pretty early, and we all knew it was over. I explained to Lil' Vulture (who was 7 at the time) that I knew Obama won. I explained to her I had a PhD in political science, and it was my job to know these things. I explained to her how I knew California was going to go for Obama. Did she believe me? Not at all. She insisted on staying up until California was called. This time around, it was more or less the same, but we were waiting on OH. At least she didn't insist on staying up until Romney conceded.


I cried the night GWHB lost to Bill Clinton, and I was 14. Embarrassing, but true. I remember not quite understaning why my Mom wasn't weeping right along with me. I figured it was because I was the better Republican.
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