The Fiscal Cliff: Politics, Not Lee

Re: The Fiscal Cliff: Politics, Not Lee

Postby jerseyhoya » Thu Nov 08, 2012 10:37:05

drsmooth wrote:Surprised no R's are calling for Wretch Preibus's reptilian head on a pike

He did his job. He raised a lot of money.

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Re: The Fiscal Cliff: Politics, Not Lee

Postby thephan » Thu Nov 08, 2012 10:48:00

The chaff thrown into the air post election by people is really starting to make me dislike white people. This could be a long term problem for me unless I can secure a whole life spray tan contract making me one of those orange people.Is there an EOE category for orange dude?
yawn

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Re: The Fiscal Cliff: Politics, Not Lee

Postby pacino » Thu Nov 08, 2012 10:50:39

Image
perfectly normal, 13-5 house reps when every statewide race went convincingly democratic

Obama won Virginia, and Democrats took 3 of 11 House seats. Obama appears very likely to win Florida, but Democrats will, at best, carry 10 of the state’s 27 districts.


Same in Ohio and Michigan. 2010 these places were all controlled by republican legislatures and were then gerrymandered in ridiculous ways. NY and CA are likely similar the opposite way, but then states controlled by democrats also sometimes have non-partisan boards decide the new borders every ten years.
thephan wrote:pacino's posting is one of the more important things revealed in weeks.

Calvinball wrote:Pacino was right.

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Re: The Fiscal Cliff: Politics, Not Lee

Postby drsmooth » Thu Nov 08, 2012 10:52:05

slugsrbad wrote:One is elected by his people, and the other is an ass hat who long ago went off the deep end. I cannot stand Gov. Scott, his actions are downright reprehensible, but he's an easier pill to swallow due to being elected. "Entertainers" like Matthews and Limbaugh are the true threats since they speak to the malleable masses.


matthews speaks to a tiny fraction of the US public about matters he has little influence on. At his most noxious, like with the storm remark that he called himself out on hours later, he's merely annoying. He & His Corpulence are not performing in the same role.

Scott, a stain, a blot, an infected chancre, is a kind actively & recurrently courted by republican leaders to run for high office
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Re: The Fiscal Cliff: Politics, Not Lee

Postby RichmondPhilsFan » Thu Nov 08, 2012 10:58:14

pacino wrote:
With neither side backing down, senior producers had to find a way to split the difference. One idea was for two members of the decision team, Mishkin and Fox’s digital politics editor Chris Stirewalt, to go on camera with Megyn Kelly and Bret Baier to squelch the doubts over the call. But then it was decided that Kelly would walk through the office and interview the decision team in the conference room. “This is Fox News,” an insider said, “so anytime there’s a chance to show off Megyn Kelly’s legs they’ll go for it.” The decision desk were given a three-minute warning that Kelly would be showing up.

The NYMag article is fantastic.

http://nymag.com/daily/intel/2012/11/how-rove-fought-with-fox-over-ohio.html

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Re: The Fiscal Cliff: Politics, Not Lee

Postby pacino » Thu Nov 08, 2012 10:58:38

woops, forgot the link. thanks
thephan wrote:pacino's posting is one of the more important things revealed in weeks.

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Re: The Fiscal Cliff: Politics, Not Lee

Postby drsmooth » Thu Nov 08, 2012 11:06:44

jerseyhoya wrote:
drsmooth wrote:Surprised no R's are calling for Wretch Preibus's reptilian head on a pike

He did his job. He raised a lot of money.


if I was one whose $ was "razed", I'd be asking him some pointed questions - or maybe not even bothering to ask, or taking any calls from him ever again.
Yes, but in a double utley you can put your utley on top they other guy's utley, and you're the winner. (Swish)

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Re: The Fiscal Cliff: Politics, Not Lee

Postby RichmondPhilsFan » Thu Nov 08, 2012 11:08:46

drsmooth wrote:
jerseyhoya wrote:
drsmooth wrote:Surprised no R's are calling for Wretch Preibus's reptilian head on a pike

He did his job. He raised a lot of money.


if I was one whose $ was "razed", I'd be asking him some pointed questions - or maybe not even bothering to ask, or taking any calls from him ever again.

I'd think they'd be angrier at the SuperPAC organizers like Rove. I thought the RNC actually did alright.

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Re: The Fiscal Cliff: Politics, Not Lee

Postby drsmooth » Thu Nov 08, 2012 11:13:46

RichmondPhilsFan wrote:
drsmooth wrote:
jerseyhoya wrote:
drsmooth wrote:Surprised no R's are calling for Wretch Preibus's reptilian head on a pike

He did his job. He raised a lot of money.


if I was one whose $ was "razed", I'd be asking him some pointed questions - or maybe not even bothering to ask, or taking any calls from him ever again.

I'd think they'd be angrier at the SuperPAC organizers like Rove. I thought the RNC actually did alright.


You're probably right. It should indeed take awhile for them to exhaust their spleens on Rove
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Re: The Fiscal Cliff: Politics, Not Lee

Postby RichmondPhilsFan » Thu Nov 08, 2012 11:21:47

In tangentially-related political news, at least we know who Jeff Kent probably voted for on Tuesday. Spoiler tag for anyone who DVR'd the ep:

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Re: The Fiscal Cliff: Politics, Not Lee

Postby phdave » Thu Nov 08, 2012 12:05:25

pacino wrote:Image
perfectly normal, 13-5 house reps when every statewide race went convincingly democratic

Obama won Virginia, and Democrats took 3 of 11 House seats. Obama appears very likely to win Florida, but Democrats will, at best, carry 10 of the state’s 27 districts.


Same in Ohio and Michigan. 2010 these places were all controlled by republican legislatures and were then gerrymandered in ridiculous ways. NY and CA are likely similar the opposite way, but then states controlled by democrats also sometimes have non-partisan boards decide the new borders every ten years.


What is the population represented by the different districts?
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Re: The Fiscal Cliff: Politics, Not Lee

Postby dajafi » Thu Nov 08, 2012 12:13:18

dajafi wrote:Do we know the total D/R national vote count for the House?


Hmm, funny I should ask:

Although a small number of ballots remain to be counted, as of this writing, votes for a Democratic candidate for the House of Representatives outweigh votes for Republican candidates. Based on ThinkProgress’ review of all ballots counted so far, 53,952,240 votes were cast for a Democratic candidate for the House and only 53,402,643 were cast for a Republican — meaning that Democratic votes exceed Republican votes by more than half a million.

Two caveats are necessary in considering these numbers. The first is that all ballots have not been counted, so these numbers will change somewhat as more returns trickle in. (Because the remaining ballots are more likely to be from Democratic-leaning west coast states, it is likely that the Democrats’ margin will increase somewhat over time.) The second caveat is that these numbers include several California districts where two members of the same party ran against each other, and they do not include districts where a single candidate ran unopposed. Nevertheless, the fact remains that the nation is very closely divided over which party should control the House, with Democrats appearing to enjoy a slight edge.

The actual partisan breakdown of the 113th Congress will be very different, however. Currently, Republicans enjoy a 233-192 advantage over Democrats, with 10 seats remaining undecided. That means that, in a year when Republicans earned less than half the popular vote, they will control a little under 54 percent of the House even if Democrats run the table on the undecided seats.
...
Americans voted for a Democratic president, a Democratic Senate, and, barring significant shifts in the vote tally, a Democratic House. Instead, they will get a House majority similar to the one that held the entire nation hostage during last year’s debt ceiling hostage crisis.


Meanwhile, the likes of Norquist are saying that the survival of the Republican House majority means that the electorate actually loves them some Ryan budget.

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Re: The Fiscal Cliff: Politics, Not Lee

Postby RichmondPhilsFan » Thu Nov 08, 2012 12:21:08

pacino wrote:Image
perfectly normal, 13-5 house reps when every statewide race went convincingly democratic

Obama won Virginia, and Democrats took 3 of 11 House seats. Obama appears very likely to win Florida, but Democrats will, at best, carry 10 of the state’s 27 districts.


Same in Ohio and Michigan. 2010 these places were all controlled by republican legislatures and were then gerrymandered in ridiculous ways. NY and CA are likely similar the opposite way, but then states controlled by democrats also sometimes have non-partisan boards decide the new borders every ten years.

I don't know about the other states, but VA didn't really have any serious challengers. Scott Rigell (R-I) versus Paul Herschbiel (D) in VA-2 was the closest, but that district is pretty heavily conservative--Glenn Nye rode Obama's coattails in 2008, but he was a Blue Dog Dem and only lasted a term. They added some Virginia Beach areas after the recent redistricting, but that didn't really change the overall profile anyway. I don't know about the other areas of VA, but here in Richmond the national Democratic groups spent absolutely no money pushing challengers like Wayne Powell--yet Powell took 41% of the vote simply because that many people hate Eric Cantor.

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Re: The Fiscal Cliff: Politics, Not Lee

Postby Polar Bear Phan » Thu Nov 08, 2012 13:06:17

pacino wrote:Image
perfectly normal, 13-5 house reps when every statewide race went convincingly democratic

Obama won Virginia, and Democrats took 3 of 11 House seats. Obama appears very likely to win Florida, but Democrats will, at best, carry 10 of the state’s 27 districts.


Same in Ohio and Michigan. 2010 these places were all controlled by republican legislatures and were then gerrymandered in ridiculous ways. NY and CA are likely similar the opposite way, but then states controlled by democrats also sometimes have non-partisan boards decide the new borders every ten years.


Obama won Pennsylvania by 340000 votes.

Obama won Philadelphia County by 460000 votes.

So, I take it you're cool with gerrymandering as long as Democrats are doing it?

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Re: The Fiscal Cliff: Politics, Not Lee

Postby pacino » Thu Nov 08, 2012 13:07:44

where in that post or any of the past votes did you get that?
thephan wrote:pacino's posting is one of the more important things revealed in weeks.

Calvinball wrote:Pacino was right.

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Re: The Fiscal Cliff: Politics, Not Lee

Postby RichmondPhilsFan » Thu Nov 08, 2012 13:09:33

Polar Bear Phan wrote:Obama won Pennsylvania by 340000 votes.

Obama won Philadelphia County by 460000 votes.

So, I take it you're cool with gerrymandering as long as Democrats are doing it?

Having a higher concentration of one party in a particular county isn't gerrymandering. That is, unless in PA the county lines are redrawn after every census.

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Re: The Fiscal Cliff: Politics, Not Lee

Postby pacino » Thu Nov 08, 2012 13:10:05

The states of Washington,[51] Arizona,[52] and California[53] have created standing committees for the redistricting following the 2010 census. Rhode Island[54] and New Jersey[55] have developed ad hoc committees, but developed the past two decennial reapportionments tied to new census data.

i appear to be correct, btw, that democratic states are trending towards non-partisan committees....so where did i imply that i like gerrymandering?
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Re: The Fiscal Cliff: Politics, Not Lee

Postby TenuredVulture » Thu Nov 08, 2012 13:14:21

RichmondPhilsFan wrote:
pacino wrote:Image
perfectly normal, 13-5 house reps when every statewide race went convincingly democratic

Obama won Virginia, and Democrats took 3 of 11 House seats. Obama appears very likely to win Florida, but Democrats will, at best, carry 10 of the state’s 27 districts.


Same in Ohio and Michigan. 2010 these places were all controlled by republican legislatures and were then gerrymandered in ridiculous ways. NY and CA are likely similar the opposite way, but then states controlled by democrats also sometimes have non-partisan boards decide the new borders every ten years.

I don't know about the other states, but VA didn't really have any serious challengers. Scott Rigell (R-I) versus Paul Herschbiel (D) in VA-2 was the closest, but that district is pretty heavily conservative--Glenn Nye rode Obama's coattails in 2008, but he was a Blue Dog Dem and only lasted a term. They added some Virginia Beach areas after the recent redistricting, but that didn't really change the overall profile anyway. I don't know about the other areas of VA, but here in Richmond the national Democratic groups spent absolutely no money pushing challengers like Wayne Powell--yet Powell took 41% of the vote simply because that many people hate Eric Cantor.


The same story holds for AR--only one Dem challenger was even close to viable. The reality is the House simply wasn't a priority for the Dems this election--indeed, there's even some bitterness that Obama did nothing to help Dem house candidates. But even before that, there seemed to be little effort to recruit quality candidates. I'm not sure with limited resources you could do both, but one reason why the Dems did so well in 2006 is that Howard Dean really recruited quality challengers even in districts where the Rep incumbent appeared entrenched. I think both parties should do that every cycle, in part because I think it's democratic and gives us better government, but also in part because I think it's effective.

I think Pac is really overstating the importance of gerrymandering. Quality opposition is much more important. Again, in Arkansas, if there was any gerrymandering going on, it was to favor the Dems. But it doesn't matter when you run guys like Gene Jeffress who seemed to really believe that not raising any money but simply driving around the district and singing in church choirs could beat a well funded candidate like Tom Cotton.
Last edited by TenuredVulture on Thu Nov 08, 2012 13:16:37, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: The Fiscal Cliff: Politics, Not Lee

Postby Bucky » Thu Nov 08, 2012 13:15:14

also, unless state lines can be redrawn at will, the gerrymandering example there makes zero sense

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Re: The Fiscal Cliff: Politics, Not Lee

Postby pacino » Thu Nov 08, 2012 13:17:53

TenuredVulture wrote:
RichmondPhilsFan wrote:
pacino wrote:Image
perfectly normal, 13-5 house reps when every statewide race went convincingly democratic

Obama won Virginia, and Democrats took 3 of 11 House seats. Obama appears very likely to win Florida, but Democrats will, at best, carry 10 of the state’s 27 districts.


Same in Ohio and Michigan. 2010 these places were all controlled by republican legislatures and were then gerrymandered in ridiculous ways. NY and CA are likely similar the opposite way, but then states controlled by democrats also sometimes have non-partisan boards decide the new borders every ten years.

I don't know about the other states, but VA didn't really have any serious challengers. Scott Rigell (R-I) versus Paul Herschbiel (D) in VA-2 was the closest, but that district is pretty heavily conservative--Glenn Nye rode Obama's coattails in 2008, but he was a Blue Dog Dem and only lasted a term. They added some Virginia Beach areas after the recent redistricting, but that didn't really change the overall profile anyway. I don't know about the other areas of VA, but here in Richmond the national Democratic groups spent absolutely no money pushing challengers like Wayne Powell--yet Powell took 41% of the vote simply because that many people hate Eric Cantor.


The same story holds for AR--only one Dem challenger was even close to viable. The reality is the House simply wasn't a priority for the Dems this election--indeed, there's even some bitterness that Obama did nothing to help Dem house candidates. But even before that, there seemed to be little effort to recruit quality candidates. I'm not sure with limited resources you could do both, but one reason why the Dems did so well in 2006 is that Howard Dean really recruited quality challengers even in districts where the Rep incumbent appeared entrenched. I think both parties should do that every cycle, in part because I think it's democratic and gives us better government, but also in part because I think it's effective.

I think Pac is really overstating the importance of gerrymandering. Quality opposition is much more important. Again, in Arkansas, if there was any gerrymandering going on, it was to favor the Dems. But it doesn't matter when you run guys like Gene Jeffress who seemed to really believe that not raising any money but simply driving around the district and singing in church choirs could beat a well funded candidate like Tom Cotton.

all you have to do is look at the registrations and you will see real impossibilities for parties in most districts across the country.
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Calvinball wrote:Pacino was right.

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