Jim Cramer is predicting Obama will win 440-98 - Washington Post picks

jerseyhoya wrote:Jim Cramer is predicting Obama will win 440-98 - Washington Post picks

Only two that like Romney are the Republican strategist and the horse-racing columnist.

jerseyhoya wrote:Jim Cramer is predicting Obama will win 440-98 - Washington Post picks

That is so absurd I thought to check if it even added up to 538. Does he even live in the United States? (sarcasm)

way to go out on a limb dave

Yeah. They'll either be right or wrong. And, in other news, the sun rises in the east.

Next you'll tell me it sets in the west

Plenty of pollsters get some things right and others wrong in an election. PPP is putting itself pretty far out on a limb all in one direction, where it's hard to see how they're gonna do the normal batting .400-.800 thing on the tough ones. It's worthwhile to point out that they're either gonna be extremely right or colossally wrong in a way most pollsters are not.

Am I missing something, or is it just that PPP has Obama leading nationally and in some states by larger margins than the consensus of polls? It's not like they're saying he's going to win Arizona and Missouri and Montana, right?

I read the post by the guy Silver pointed out as having the best counterargument, and even he suggested that if his caveats (all of which seem plausible) are right, it's likely the president has about a 60 percent chance of winning. The people who suggest Romney might win big--the "Unskewed" buffoon, Barone (whose "predictions" amounted to a wishcast) and, pre-Sandy, Dick Morris--seem farther from the emerging consensus of a very narrow Obama victory with 270-290 EVs than I think PPP is, unless again I've missed their predicting some surprising states going to Obama.

They have him up in every swing state, closest are VA and WI at O+3, most of the rest are Obama leading by 5 or more. They're also got him still tied in North Carolina.

And that isn't what the critique of Silver said. He said he thought it was 60/40 Obama, which I think is about fair. He also said Obama might win still if all of his caveats are right, but I think he'd set the odds at much better for Romney if they are.

If you or a relative have been displaced by Hurricane Sandy in NJ, you (or they) can apply to vote via email. You have to submit a mail-in ballot application by fax or email to your county clerk, and then they'll email you a ballot. If you go this route you also have to sign a waiver of confidentiality for your vote, as whomever receives it will see who you're voting for. And I think you have to include both the ballot and the waiver for the vote to count.

Contact your county clerk for more info on what/where/how to send.

One of my friends who has never voted in a presidential election forgot to ask for an absentee. He is registered in Harrisburg. I offered to drive home with him if he wanted to. So Tuesday morning I am driving to Harrisburg to so a pal will cast a vote for President Obama.

All my liberal pals here find someone who isn't going to vote without your help. We got this if you do.

so the margin of difference will be within 40 or so huh

CalvinBall wrote:One of my friends who has never voted in a presidential election forgot to ask for an absentee. He is registered in Harrisburg. I offered to drive home with him if he wanted to. So Tuesday morning I am driving to Harrisburg to so a pal will cast a vote for President Obama.

He's voting for Mickey Mouse.

you never know. also figured itd be a fun trip. he gets to vote in his first presidential election and will remember this day and vote democrat for the rest of his life.

Bill Clinton will be in Pittsburgh, Scranton, Blue Bell and Philly on Monday. Put the links below where you can get tickets.

Market Square, Pittsburgh, 10:15 am
https://my.barackobama.com/page/s/see-p ... pittsburgh

Montgomery County CC, Blue Bell, 2:30 pm
https://my.barackobama.com/page/s/see-p ... -blue-bell

Paelestra, Philadelphia, 4:00 pm
https://my.barackobama.com/page/s/see-p ... iladelphia

Scranton HS, Scranton, 7:30 pm
https://my.barackobama.com/page/s/see-p ... n-scranton

Final prediction:
Romney 289-Obama 249
Romney pickups: Indiana, NE-02, North Carolina, Florida, Colorado, Virginia, Ohio, New Hampshire, Wisconsin

Someone should have Romney winning. I think it's plausible, though would feel better about this if he could show a touch of momentum in some of the national or state polls in the last few days.

Actual important point - Virginia closes early, 7 PM, and counts votes quickly - We could get a pretty quick read on where things are going. If Obama wins VA by 3%+, it should be a quick night. If Romney wins VA by 3%+, it's a sign that the state polls might have fucked up real bad. If it's inside that, then maybe whatever is happening state specific, and it could be a long night.

Then lots of other important states close within the next hour. Going to be intense.

I forgot ND has stupid rules in regards to polls closing.

Maybe the rest of the country will realize how much more convenient it is to vote by mail next cycle.