All things good in MODERATION: Politics Thread

Re: All things good in MODERATION: Politics Thread

Postby pacino » Fri Oct 05, 2012 09:56:59

Sure would be nice if we didn't cut all those government jobs

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Re: All things good in MODERATION: Politics Thread

Postby jamiethekiller » Fri Oct 05, 2012 09:57:54

dajafi wrote:Also, I sincerely love you guys for using U3, U5 and U6 and assuming everyone knows what they mean. INTERNET FRIENDS FTW!


context clues FTW

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Re: All things good in MODERATION: Politics Thread

Postby Grotewold » Fri Oct 05, 2012 09:59:52

RichmondPhilsFan wrote:And remember how we were talking yesterday about the theory that Romney might've won the debate but still hurt himself through the PBS/Big Bird comment?

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/she-the-people/wp/2012/10/04/big-bird-will-haunt-mitt-romney/


It was his only stylistic misstep, imo. Who wants PBS cut outside of hardcore members of his base? And the "I even like you, Jim" thing was smarmy.
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Re: All things good in MODERATION: Politics Thread

Postby RichmondPhilsFan » Fri Oct 05, 2012 10:01:17

Grotewold wrote:
RichmondPhilsFan wrote:And remember how we were talking yesterday about the theory that Romney might've won the debate but still hurt himself through the PBS/Big Bird comment?

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/she-the-people/wp/2012/10/04/big-bird-will-haunt-mitt-romney/


It was his only stylistic miststep, imo. Who wants PBS cut outside of hardcore members of his base? And the "I even like you, Jim" thing was smarmy.

I didn't see the whole thing, but I'd agree that it was the only one I saw. Yet it's the only clip that's still being played on Friday morning. Liberal Media wins again!

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Re: All things good in MODERATION: Politics Thread

Postby jamiethekiller » Fri Oct 05, 2012 10:02:04

Grotewold wrote:
RichmondPhilsFan wrote:And remember how we were talking yesterday about the theory that Romney might've won the debate but still hurt himself through the PBS/Big Bird comment?

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/she-the-people/wp/2012/10/04/big-bird-will-haunt-mitt-romney/


It was his only stylistic miststep, imo. Who wants PBS cut outside of hardcore members of his base? And the "I even like you, Jim" thing was smarmy.


his voice while patronizing Jim Lehr was grating. how it had a subtle crescendo

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Re: All things good in MODERATION: Politics Thread

Postby jerseyhoya » Fri Oct 05, 2012 10:03:41

td11 wrote:
jerseyhoya wrote:If labor force participation rate was the same as when Obama took office, U3 rate would be 10.7%. If labor force participation was the same as it was in January 2012, it'd be 8.3%.


this is the first month in four years where the total employed/population ratio went up and you wanna bring up when the pres first took office and we were still bleeding jobs from the recession?

It's important to keep the numbers in perspective. Where we've come from tells us a lot about where we are. Also brought up January of this year.

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Re: All things good in MODERATION: Politics Thread

Postby jerseyhoya » Fri Oct 05, 2012 10:05:03

dajafi wrote:Baby Boomers are starting to hit retirement age in pretty large numbers, and the pace of immigration has slowed in the downturn. Would seem a stretch to blame either of these things on Obama, though I'm sure Fox will give it a try.

I know we've talked about this before, but have you read anything specific that addresses why the rate has continued to drop/failed to really recover or are those reasons (good) guesses?

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Re: All things good in MODERATION: Politics Thread

Postby Werthless » Fri Oct 05, 2012 10:12:13

td11 wrote:Image

Jobs are always created post recession, and the argument is that job growth has been horrendous, given the deepness of the recession. Compared to any previous recession, jobs have been created startlingly slowly. See here:

Image

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Re: All things good in MODERATION: Politics Thread

Postby Houshphandzadeh » Fri Oct 05, 2012 10:15:57

need more censuses

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Re: All things good in MODERATION: Politics Thread

Postby Werthless » Fri Oct 05, 2012 10:22:42

dajafi wrote:Baby Boomers are starting to hit retirement age in pretty large numbers, and the pace of immigration has slowed in the downturn. Would seem a stretch to blame either of these things on Obama, though I'm sure Fox will give it a try.

I wouldnt expect the number of working folks to change that much with baby boomers retiring. I dont know the labor force participation of 60 year olds, say 60%, but I think there is a larger number of 22 year olds (with their labor force participation much closer to 100%) taking their place. See the population period below. While the baby boomer was a surge in population, subsequent generations have not shrank. The problem is the ratio of retirees to workers, not the absolute number of workers.

Edit: And insofar as the democrats have contributed to the slower recovery, which is the Republican argument, then that would explain the slowing immigration. I don't really understand your post, since you usually don't post random rants against Fox.
Image
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Re: All things good in MODERATION: Politics Thread

Postby td11 » Fri Oct 05, 2012 10:26:05

pacino wrote:Sure would be nice if we didn't cut all those government jobs


The best news anywhere in the U.S. economy over the past three months has been in the government sector, where unemployment has dropped dramatically from 5.7 percent in July to 5.1 percent in August to 4.3 percent in September, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.



http://cnsnews.com/news/article/unemplo ... nt-workers
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Re: All things good in MODERATION: Politics Thread

Postby jamiethekiller » Fri Oct 05, 2012 10:28:16

Do you guys think that some of this slow job stuff is because companies are hoarding money so much right now? i get an email like once a month about the company telling businesses to build up cash reserves.

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Re: All things good in MODERATION: Politics Thread

Postby td11 » Fri Oct 05, 2012 10:30:32

Werthless wrote:
td11 wrote:Image

Jobs are always created post recession, and the argument is that job growth has been horrendous, given the deepness of the recession. Compared to any previous recession, jobs have been created startlingly slowly. See here:

Image


the brown(1990) and black (2001) lines seem to be of a similar slope. it looks to me like the depth of the recession we hit is pretty unprecedented while the rate of growth since the valley is not
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Re: All things good in MODERATION: Politics Thread

Postby Werthless » Fri Oct 05, 2012 10:31:56

This recession is really being felt by people unequally. Recent graduates are getting killed, older works over 55 are losing jobs, and folks with low education levels are hurting. If you're a 35 year old with a professional degree, you're probably doing ok.

Image

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Re: All things good in MODERATION: Politics Thread

Postby Grotewold » Fri Oct 05, 2012 10:32:22

It seems naive to me to compare this recession to previous ones. I feel like there are major systemic problems (for which the parties share blame) which have taken us here and that most people instinctively understand we aren't going back to the 50s or 90s anytime soon.

So anything less than horrible economic news is good news for a mostly likeable president.

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Re: All things good in MODERATION: Politics Thread

Postby Werthless » Fri Oct 05, 2012 10:36:18

td11 wrote:the brown(1990) and black (2001) lines seem to be of a similar slope. it looks to me like the depth of the recession we hit is pretty unprecedented while the rate of growth since the valley is not

The deeper recessions are associated with steeper recoveries. Except 2009. Some of this probably has to do with the housing market collapse keeping folks tied to a specific area, but I have no idea of the magnitude of that effect. With rents going up, it's feasible financially to move and rent your home in many areas.

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Re: All things good in MODERATION: Politics Thread

Postby RichmondPhilsFan » Fri Oct 05, 2012 10:38:11

Grotewold wrote:It seems naive to me to compare this recession to previous ones. I feel like there are major systemic problems (for which the parties share blame) which have taken us here and that most people instinctively understand we aren't going back to the 50s or 90s anytime soon.

Plus I'd expect that a newly (and uniquely) globalized economy complicates the situation as well. I'd expect that in a few hundred years, economists will be looking at this recession as the first in a new type, or at least the precursor to that new type of recession.

But I'm nowhere near smart enough to discuss why.

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Re: All things good in MODERATION: Politics Thread

Postby td11 » Fri Oct 05, 2012 10:39:43

Mike Hayes ‏@michaelhayes
It's the one year anniversary of the worst jobs report ever. RIP, Steve Jobs.

aheh
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Re: All things good in MODERATION: Politics Thread

Postby Didn't I? » Fri Oct 05, 2012 10:42:09

All this interpretation of numbers makes me glad I base my vote on which guy will let gay people get married.
​​"Big Dick Nick stepped the fuck up." - An Eagles fan with an eye patch

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Re: All things good in MODERATION: Politics Thread

Postby Werthless » Fri Oct 05, 2012 10:58:54

Grotewold wrote:It seems naive to me to compare this recession to previous ones. I feel like there are major systemic problems (for which the parties share blame) which have taken us here and that most people instinctively understand we aren't going back to the 50s or 90s anytime soon.

So anything less than horrible economic news is good news for a mostly likeable president.

That's typical talk in every recession and growth period. This is a "New Economy," and we throw all the old rules out the door. A newsweek headline of that nature occurs every 5 years or so.

What are some of the structural hurdles slowing GDP growth and a jobs recovery, and which ones are government related (not just the President's fault, but Congress's fault)? Romney's argument is that many of them are tied to government policy.

Romney's argument is on what Obama focused on in his time with a Democratic congress. Repeal of Glass-Steagall? Lowering of corporate tax rates and eliminating rent-seeking loopholes? Revamping of Fannie Mac? No, we got Cash for Clunkers, the stimulus bill, the healthcare law, and we spent all our time debating how much the CEO of Citi should make. Oh, and the Obama administration made sure to circumvent bankruptcy law and ensure that the autoworkers union got ownership in GM and Chrysler ahead of bondholders.

(I havent looked closely at Dodd-Frank, which is the foundational financial legislation passed during his term.)

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