It's Election Day in New Jersey. Highlight is up in the northeast corner of the state where Rep. Bill Pascrell is facing Rep. Steve Rothman as a result of redistricting. The ads I've heard on the radio have been pretty not nice. I don't know if I have any competitive races but I'm going to vote later this afternoon.

Also interested to see how primary elections in California go tonight. They've switched to a top two system, so a number of races are going to end up Democrat/Democrat or (many fewer) Republican/Republican for November. I wonder what turnout is going be like, and if it's low enough, whether the system will lead to weird outcomes.

And there's the small matter of Wisconsin.

Outspent 7 to 1 and it's still a coinflip for Barrett.

I mean, neither of those things are true.

Walker and his allies are outspending Barrett and his allies, but it's nothing close to 7 to 1. We'll see what the final tally ends up being, but the Democrats have said over the past few weeks of the campaign they're at spending parity with Walker on TV. Walker personally has heavily outraised Barrett thanks to Barrett's late entry into the race and quirks in Wisconsin's fundraising laws, but national Democratic and labor groups have spent tens of millions of dollars hammering Walker over the past 18 months. Any attempt by Dems to cry poor in this battle is grasping at straws.

And, nervous as I am about the outcome, it's not a coin flip. Barrett hasn't led in a single poll.

In global political forecasting news, odds Queen Elizabeth will be wearing a large hat today are reported to be approaching 100%

Down goes the Paycheck Fairness Act

I wonder if the Wisconsin outcome is a lose/lose for the Democrats. According to Politico the state "has a $154 million surplus, 30,000 new jobs, and a falling 6.7 percent unemployment rate that is at its lowest mark in four years."

Wouldn't the voters look foolish voting someone with those results out? I get the labor thing, but nationally I'd think his record plays really well, and the Republicans could point out that labor (i.e Democrats) don't really care about the economy.

cshort wrote:I wonder if the Wisconsin outcome is a lose/lose for the Democrats. According to Politico the state "has a $154 million surplus, 30,000 new jobs, and a falling 6.7 percent unemployment rate that is at its lowest mark in four years."

Wouldn't the voters look foolish voting someone with those results out? I get the labor thing, but nationally I'd think his record plays really well, and the Republicans could point out that labor (i.e Democrats) don't really care about the economy.

Well, if it were as clear-cut as you describe, Walker wouldn't need $30 million of the Kochs' dough to win in a squeaker, would he? I mean, there must be SOMEthing more to it to have provoked a million people to sign a recall petition, don't you think?

Not saying it's clear cut, just saying the Republicans may be able to spin it well in their favor either way. Wrt the $30 million and the 1 million votes, he provoked Labor and their representatives in the state with his collective bargaining stance, so its pretty obvious what provoked it. That's why it may play well nationally for the Republicans - they can point to a specific issue and the Democrat's reaction to it, a reaction that ignores what appears to be his tangible economic success in the state.

John Beard ‏@Beard_wkow
City clerk says voter turnout in Madsion, right now, is estimated at 119%, due to # of voters registering/re-registering. Update @ 4:30

I hope we're doing some good voter fraud in our counties too

you know that's due to same-day registration, right?

cshort wrote:I wonder if the Wisconsin outcome is a lose/lose for the Democrats. According to Politico the state "has a $154 million surplus, 30,000 new jobs, and a falling 6.7 percent unemployment rate that is at its lowest mark in four years."

Wouldn't the voters look foolish voting someone with those results out? I get the labor thing, but nationally I'd think his record plays really well, and the Republicans could point out that labor (i.e Democrats) don't really care about the economy.

Minnesota's unemployment rate has basically followed the same pattern as other midwestern states (this is a way cool chart-I've thrown up a few states but didn't want to deprive anyone else of the fun of adding others.) Which is to say it's still pretty historically high but has improved over the past couple years.

I'm sure Republicans will try to spin it that way, and they might even succeed. But it would be the same as making the argument that Republicans don't care about the national economy since they're willing to throw out the current head despite gradual improvement. And I don't think that's an argument you want to make.

the drone strikes are becoming ridiculous. we're killing people who we don't even know and saying '8 to 14 dead'...wtf?! they are all presumed to be part of al qaeda because we say they are. oh, but we'll post-humously exonerate those 8-14 people if we somehow miraculously find evidence they weren't infact, dangerous terrorists.

pacino wrote:the drone strikes are becoming ridiculous. we're killing people who we don't even know and saying '8 to 14 dead'...wtf?! they are all presumed to be part of al qaeda because we say they are. oh, but we'll post-humously exonerate those 8-14 people if we somehow miraculously find evidence they weren't infact, dangerous terrorists.

Didn't we just kill the number 2 guy in Al Qaeda, leaving them with only Al Zawahiri? Not necessarily a bad thing.

I'm kind of feeling an Ohio 2004 vibe from today. Dems will do above their baseline need to win numbers in Milwaukee and Dane counties, but the GOP will crank out absurd numbers in the collar counties around Milwaukee. It looks like it will end up closer than the polls based on these early exit polls. But then again they're always wrong too.

When I voted at 4:15 I was the 45th Republican to vote at the precinct. 11 Democrats had voted. EXCITEMENT at the polls in Burlington County, NJ.

cshort wrote:

pacino wrote:the drone strikes are becoming ridiculous. we're killing people who we don't even know and saying '8 to 14 dead'...wtf?! they are all presumed to be part of al qaeda because we say they are. oh, but we'll post-humously exonerate those 8-14 people if we somehow miraculously find evidence they weren't infact, dangerous terrorists.

Didn't we just kill the number 2 guy in Al Qaeda, leaving them with only Al Zawahiri? Not necessarily a bad thing.

also killed women and children, and have been double-tapping funerals. great job. we 'win' in the short-term,but lose long-term.

Looks like Wisconsin's hot Lt Gov will keep her seat

she's a CRAZY anti-gay whackjob, but she's hot so let's all jackoff

pacino wrote:she's a CRAZY anti-gay whackjob, but she's hot so let's all jackoff

Exactly

Maybe the votes counted early would skew towards the Republicans/Walker, but he's doing better than his baseline 2010 numbers in the vast majority of counties.